09/07/2020 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Latin America & Caribbean - Miracle or Mirage? Gangs and Plunging Violence in El Salvador (English ,Part I)
Executive Summary - The murder rate in El Salvador, once the world’s highest, is falling fast. President Nayib Bukele attributes the good news to his harsh anti-gang crackdown, but other factors are likely also salient. The government should explore policing and socio-economic reforms to calm the country’s streets. The Bukele administration argues that the plummeting murder rate represents the crowning achievement of a new security strategy.
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18/09/2019 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Venezuela’s Military Enigma
The struggle over Venezuela’s political future will likely turn on the armed forces’ disposition: the top brass could ease or thwart a move away from President Nicolás Maduro. Sponsors of transition talks should include military representatives in the discussions sooner rather than later.
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30/11/2017 | Frente Externo
Analysis - Venezuela: Hunger By Default
Economic mismanagement, corruption and dwindling reserves have forced Venezuela into penury and now into missed payments and partial default on its debts. Full-scale, internationally supervised negotiations involving a restored parliament are essential to pave the way to a debt restructuring and a free, fair presidential election.
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02/03/2017 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Veracruz: Fixing Mexico’s State of Terror
Mexico’s third-most populous state has suffered an unprecedented wave of violence. Veracruz’s new governor must stand by pledges to end state-criminal collusion and impunity. Strong international support will be needed to help find the bodies of the disappeared and transform the state police and legislature.
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13/01/2017 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Cameroon: Confronting Boko Haram
Cameroon’s military campaign against the Boko Haram insurgency started late but has met with partial success. To consolidate gains and bring lasting peace to the Far North, the government must now shift to long-term socio-economic development, countering religious radicalism and reinforcing public services.
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05/11/2016 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Libyan Political Agreement: Time for a Reset
The UN-brokered peace process in Libya has stalled, leaving unresolved pressing issues like worsening living conditions, control of oil facilities, people-smuggling, and the struggle against jihadist groups. New negotiations are needed to engage key actors who have been excluded so far.
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04/10/2016 | Economia y Finanzas
Central Bank Crisis Risks Famine in Yemen
Efforts to move Yemen’s Central Bank will likely add to risks of insolvency and starvation, while complicating and deepening civil war divisions. Regional and international powers should rally round this critical institution and help revive UN-brokered peace talks.
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02/05/2016 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Crisis Watch - May 2016
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30/03/2016 | En Parrilla
Russia’s Choice in Syria
In announcing Moscow’s intent to withdraw the “main part“ of the military assets that it deployed to Syria since last September, President Vladimir Putin again caught much of the world off-guard, this time allies and adversaries alike. Having declared victory while maintaining its war-fighting capacity in Syria, Russia has left key questions unanswered: will it actually reduce its military role and, if so, to what extent, where and against whom. But if it implements the announcement in a meaningful way, this could create the best opportunity in years to push the conflict toward an initial settlement, especially on the heels of Moscow’s decision to help implement a “cessation of hostilities”.
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20/03/2016 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Human Cost of the PKK Conflict in Turkey: The Case of Sur
The breakdown of negotiations between the Turkish state and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), reignition of hostilities in July 2015 and subsequent spiral of violence underscore the urgent need for a new peace process. Since December, however, confrontations between Turkish security forces and the PKK – listed internationally as a terrorist organisation – have entered an unprecedented stage.
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19/03/2016 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Exploiting Disorder: al-Qaeda and the Islamic State
The Islamic State (IS), al-Qaeda-linked groups, Boko Haram and other extremist movements are protagonists in today’s deadliest crises, complicating efforts to end them. They have exploited wars, state collapse and geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East, gained new footholds in Africa and pose an evolving threat elsewhere. Reversing their gains requires avoiding the mistakes that enabled their rise.
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17/03/2016 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The North Caucasus Insurgency and Syria: An Exported Jihad?
Violence in Russia’s North Caucasus, which has experienced deadly conflict for two decades, is down substantially the last two years – partly because most of its radicals have joined the foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq.
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19/02/2016 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Alert: Venezuela on the Edge
The 6 December parliamentary election in which the Venezuelan opposition won a landslide victory and a two-thirds legislative majority, combined with the ongoing economic meltdown, should have encouraged a more conciliatory stance by the government and a mutual search for a basic political agreement.
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16/10/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somaliland: The Strains of Success
Somaliland’s hybrid system of tri-party democracy and traditional clan-based governance has enabled the consolidation of state-like authority, social and economic recovery and, above all, relative peace and security but now needs reform. Success has brought greater resources, including a special funding status with donors – especially the UK, Denmark and the European Union (EU) – as well as investment from and diplomatic ties with Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), though not international recognition.
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16/10/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch 146, 1 October 2015
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13/10/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Algeria and Its Neighbours
Algeria is emerging as an indispensable broker of stability in North Africa and the Sahel. Where insecurity, foreign meddling and polarisation are on the rise across the region, it has at key moments promoted dialogue and state-building as the best means for lifting neighbours out of crisis, thus to safeguard its own long-term security.
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04/10/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Kyrgyzstan: An Uncertain Trajectory
Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia’s only even nominal parliamentary democracy, faces growing internal and external security challenges. Deep ethnic tensions, increased radicalisation in the region, uncertainty in Afghanistan and the possibility of a chaotic political succession in Uzbekistan are all likely to have serious repercussions for its stability.
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29/09/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Central African Republic: The roots of violence
Crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) is longterm and characterised by sporadic surges of violence against a backdrop of state disintegration, a survival economy and deep inter-ethnic cleavages. Armed groups (including the anti-balaka and the ex-Seleka) are fragmenting and becoming increasingly criminalised; intercommunal tensions have hampered efforts to promote CAR’s national unity and mend its social fabric.
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29/09/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Curbing Violence in Nigeria (III): Revisiting the Niger Delta
iolence in the Niger Delta may soon increase unless the Nigerian government acts quickly and decisively to address long-simmering grievances. With the costly Presidential Amnesty Program for ex-insurgents due to end in a few months, there are increasingly bitter complaints in the region that chronic poverty and catastrophic oil pollution, which fuelled the earlier rebellion, remain largely unaddressed.
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25/09/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Statement on the Transitional Justice Agreement between the Colombian Government and FARC
The agreement on transitional justice reached by the government of Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and publicly announced yesterday in Havana is a major breakthrough in the four-year peace talks.
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25/09/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Declaración sobre el acuerdo de justicia transicional entre el gobierno colombiano y las FARC
El acuerdo sobre justicia transicional alcanzado por el gobierno de Colombia y las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), anunciado públicamente el miércoles 23 de septiembre en La Habana, es un avance decisivo en cuatro años de negociaciones de paz.
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05/09/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Cameroon: The Threat of Religious Radicalism
In Cameroon, the rise of Christian revivalist (born again) and Muslim fundamentalist movements is rapidly changing the religious landscape and paving the way for religious intolerance. Fundamentalist groups’ emergence, combined with communal tensions, creates a specific risk in the North and increases competition for leadership of the Muslim community: such competition has already led to local conflicts.
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05/09/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal: Conflict Alert
Spiralling protests against a draft constitution have left 23 dead and hundreds injured in Nepal in two weeks. An over-militarised security reaction and inadequate political response from the centre threaten to fuel deep-seated ethnic, caste and regional rivalries less than a decade after the civil war’s end.
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05/09/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
New Approach in Southern Syria
The Syrian war rages on, its devastating civilian toll rising with no viable political solution in sight. Diplomacy is stymied by the warring parties’ uncompromising positions, reinforced by political deadlock between their external backers.
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05/09/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch 145, 1 September 2015
Political crises and violent protests rocked a number of countries in August, including Guatemala, Nepal, Lebanon and Iraq, where popular unrest threatens to topple the government and overturn the post-2003 political order.
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05/09/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
No Exit? Gaza & Israel Between Wars
In the year since the 2014 Gaza war, little has been done to alter the conditions that precipitated it. The so-called Palestinian government of national consensus, formed in June 2o14 and seated in the West Bank, has been reconstituted without Hamas’s consent.
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01/08/2015 | Frente Externo
Venezuela: Unnatural Disaster
The accelerating deterioration of Venezuela’s political crisis is cause for growing concern.
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01/08/2015 | Frente Externo
Venezuela: Un desastre evitable
El deterioro acelerado de la crisis política en Venezuela es motivo de creciente preocupación.
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27/07/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
South Sudan: Keeping Faith with the IGAD Peace Process
For more than eighteen months, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the regional body mediating peace negotiations to end South Sudan’s civil war, has struggled to secure a deal in the face of deep regional divisions and the parties’ truculence.
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16/07/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Libyan Political Dialogue: An Incomplete Consensus
The preliminary political agreement that emerged from UN-led talks between Libyan rival factions at a signing ceremony in the Moroccan coastal resort town of Skhirat last week was a critical first step toward ending the Libyan civil war.
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25/06/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Central Sahel: A Perfect Sandstorm
The huge, sparsely populated, impoverished Sahel is affected by growing numbers of jihadi extremists and illicit activities, including arms, drugs and human trafficking, estimated to generate $3.8 billion annually.
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04/06/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Future of the Afghan Local Police
The Afghan Local Police (ALP) began as a small U.S. experiment but grew into a significant part of Afghanistan’s security apparatus. In hundreds of rural communities, members serve on the front lines of a war that is reaching heights of violence not witnessed since 2001, as insurgents start to credibly threaten major cities.
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11/05/2015 | En Parrilla
Congo: Is Democratic Change Possible?
The presidential and legislative polls scheduled for 2016 are a potential watershed for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC); they could be the first elections held without an incumbent protecting his position. The prospect of these elections is testing nerves on all sides of the Congolese political spectrum and has already caused deadly violence. There is an urgent need for President Joseph Kabila to commit to the two-term limit contained within the constitution and ready himself to leave power. Consensus is also needed on key electoral decisions, in particular regarding the calendar and the voter roll. This will require high-level donor and international engagement. Absent agreement and clarity on the election process, or should there be significant delays, international partners should review their support to the government.
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07/05/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Stirring up the South China Sea (III): A Fleeting Opportunity for Calm
The South China Sea is the cockpit of geopolitics in East Asia. Five countries – Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam – plus Taiwan have substantial and competing territorial and maritime claims in a body of water that is both an important source of hydrocarbons and fisheries and a vital trade corridor.
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28/04/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Myanmar’s Electoral Landscape
Myanmar is preparing to hold national elections in early November 2015, five years after the last full set of polls brought the semi-civilian reformist government to power.
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18/04/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Elections in Burundi: Moment of Truth
The elections scheduled to take place between the end of May and August 2015 will be decisive for Burundi. The future of the present rulers (President Pierre Nkurunziza considers running for a third term) and, more importantly, the upholding of the 2000 Arusha agreement as the foundation for peace, are at stake.
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17/04/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Colombia: A Dangerous Setback
Colombia’s attempt to end five decades of bloodshed could be at risk, after local Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) units appeared to have breached a four-month-old unilateral ceasefire by ambushing a military patrol 14 April, reportedly killing eleven soldiers and wounding another twenty. The deadliest guerrilla action since the peace negotiations began two and a half years ago is not likely to lead to a collapse of the talks, but the parties and the international community must now move quickly to prevent them from unravelling.
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08/04/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Women, Violence and Conflict in Pakistan
Eight years into its democratic transition, violence against women is still endemic in Pakistan, amid a climate of impunity and state inaction. Discriminatory legislation and a dysfunctional criminal justice system have put women at grave risk.
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05/04/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Ukraine Crisis: Risks of Renewed Military Conflict after Minsk II
A second agreement in Minsk on 12 February produced a ceasefire that for now is mostly holding and measures to de-escalate the conflict. Many officials locally and in Kyiv, Moscow and the West, nevertheless, believe war could resume in Ukraine’s east within weeks. If it does, much will depend on the quality of top commanders on both sides. Ukraine’s army is enmeshed in a command crisis the country’s leaders seem unwilling to admit or address. For the separatist rebels, the command and control Moscow provides could give them the advantage in any new fighting. Meanwhile, President Petro Poroshenko faces criticism from his Western allies about the slow pace of reform, opposition from the political establishment as he tries to pass legislation required by the Minsk agreement and a steady stream of complaints from Donetsk and Moscow that the measures do not go far enough.
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05/04/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iran Nuclear Talks: A Landmark Achievement, Yet a Long Road Ahead
The International Crisis Group applauds the 2 April agreement on a framework for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action reached between Iran and the P5+1/EU3+3 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany). This achievement is a triumph of multilateral diplomacy and a testament to the seriousness of purpose, patience and persistence of the negotiators involved in this process.
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05/04/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch 140, 1 April 2015
March saw significant improvements in resolving longstanding conflicts, particularly in Myanmar and Colombia. However, Yemen’s political crisis tipped into all-out war, and fighting increased again in South Sudan following suspension of the peace talks. In Africa, election-related tensions worsened ahead of Burundi’s June presidential elections, while renewed international support to Guinea-Bissau gave a lift to political stability and reform. In a significant development for West Africa and beyond, Nigeria witnessed, for the first time in its history, the ousting of a ruling party through national elections, with Muhammadu Buhari’s victory in the 28 March presidential elections.
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31/03/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Yemen at War
Yemen is at war. The country is now divided between the Huthi movement, which controls the north and is rapidly advancing south, and the anti-Huthi coalition backed by Western and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies that President Abdo Robo Mansour Hadi is cobbling together. On 25 March, the Huthis captured a strategic military base north of the port city of Aden and took the defence minister hostage. That evening Saudi Arabia launched a military campaign, in coordination with nine other, mostly Arab states, to stop the Huthi advance and restore his government. Hadi left for Riyadh and will attend an Arab League summit on 28 March. No major party seems truly to want to halt what threatens to become a regional war. The slim chance to salvage a political process requires that regional actors immediately cease military action and help the domestic parties agree on a broadly acceptable president or presidential council. Only then can Yemenis return to the political negotiating table to address other outstanding issues.
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31/03/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Defeating the Iraqi State, One Victory
What progress is being made against jihadi insurgents occupying large swathes of north-western Iraq is simultaneously undermining what is left of a state whose frailty and malfunctions created the environment in which jihadism was able to surge in the first place.
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22/03/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Security Sector Reform in Guinea-Bissau: An Opportunity Not to Be Missed
A legitimate civilian government, economic improvement and an army that has lost credibility are an opportunity for Guinea-Bissau. Regional and international partners meeting in Brussels on 25 March should commit to finance security sector reform to help the small state move beyond its history of military coups.
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16/03/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Restart of South Sudan Talks Critical to Avert End-March War Threat
Another round of South Sudan peace talks mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Addis Ababa has failed.
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16/03/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Time for UNASUR to Defuse the Crisis in Venezuela
If Venezuela is not to continue sliding toward violent confrontation, the international community - in particular the members of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname and Uruguay, in addition to Venezuela) - must urgently devise measures that contribute to resolution of the grave political and economic crisis.
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16/03/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Es tiempo de que UNASUR desactive la crisis en Venezuela
Para que Venezuela no continúe deslizándose hacia una confrontación violenta, la comunidad internacional – y en particular los miembros de la Unión de Naciones Suramericanas (UNASUR) (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Perú, Suriname and Uruguay, además de Venezuela) – deben urgentemente diseñar medidas que contribuyan a la resolución de la grave crisis política y económica.
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28/02/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Back from the Brink: Saving Ciudad Juárez
Just four years ago, Ciudad Juárez was under siege from criminal gang members and being sabotaged by crooked cops. Killings and kidnappings spiralled out of control despite the deployment of thousands of soldiers and federal police. Today Juárez is on the path to recovery: public investments in social programs and institutional reform plus a unique model of citizen engagement have helped bring what was once dubbed the world’s “murder capital” back from the brink.
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10/02/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mapping Bangladesh’s Political Crisis
On 5 January, the first anniversary of the deeply contested 2014 elections, the most violent in Bangladesh’s history, clashes between government and opposition groups led to several deaths and scores injured.
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03/02/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch 138, 2 February 2015
The year opened with a worsening of the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Nigeria and Ukraine, each with potentially major regional implications. Violence escalated in Sudan, as well as in Lebanon's Tripoli and along its southern border with Israel, and a deadly clash between police and militants in the southern Philippines threatened to derail the peace process there. In South Asia, both Bangladesh and Nepal saw political tensions intensify. On a positive note, the Sri Lanka elections resulted in a peaceful transition of power from long-time President Mahinda Rajapaksa to Maithripala Sirisena, despite initial fears of election-related violence.
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30/01/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sudan and South Sudan's Merging conflicts
The conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan are increasingly merged. Halting drift toward a Uganda-Sudan proxy war on the Sudan-South Sudan border requires better coordination by regional organisations and more engagement by influential outside powers, notably China and the U.S., including via the UN Security Council. A UN-imposed arms embargo, improved border monitoring, and a UN panel of experts mandated to study the funding of South Sudan’s war are needed.
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28/01/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Yemen Conflict Alert: Time for Compromise
Yemen’s UN-backed transition has unravelled and the country has entered a new, highly unstable phase. On 22 January President Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi and the prime minister resigned after Huthi fighters seized the presidential palace and consolidated control of the capital.
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20/01/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Syria Calling: Radicalisation in Central Asia
The Islamic State (IS) is attracting Central Asians to Syria and fostering new links among radicals within the region. Unless the five Central Asian governments develop a credible, coordinated counter-action plan, including improved security measures but also social, political and economic reforms, growing radicalism will eventually pose a serious threat to their stability.
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07/01/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch 137, 5 January 2015
December saw a significant deterioration of the security situation – compared to the previous month – in nine countries or conflict situations in the world, including in South Asia (Pakistan and India), and East Africa (South Sudan and Kenya). There is a risk of increased violence in the coming month in Sudan, where major offensives are anticipated on the heels of a failure in the peace talks; in Sri Lanka, in the context of the 8 January elections; and in Haiti, where the current president could rule by decree unless parliament's mandate, due to expire on 12 January, is extended. On a positive note, the Colombia peace talks emerged strengthened in December, and relations between Cuba and the U.S. dramatically improved.
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23/12/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
South Sudan: Jonglei – ''We Have Always Been at War''
South Sudan’s Jonglei state is emblematic of the regional, national and local challenges to peace and of the limitations of trying to resolve a conflict by engaging only two of the nearly two-dozen armed groups in the country.
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22/12/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Eastern Ukraine: A Dangerous Winter
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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20/12/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Tunisia’s Elections: Old Wounds, New Fears
Tunisia’s presidential election highlights the multiple divides that trouble the country and region. Unless the winner governs as a truly national leader, representing all Tunisians and not just his base, current tensions could escalate into violence.
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18/12/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Congo: Ending the Status Quo
A new consensus and strategy are urgently needed to tackle the numerous, brutal armed groups in eastern Congo and to save the February 2013 Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework (PSCF) in the Great Lakes region.
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16/12/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Guinea’s Other Emergency: Organising Elections
Guinea approaches the second free presidential election in its history under difficult circumstances. Unless the government convenes a serious dialogue with the opposition, it risks electoral violence and exacerbating ethnic divisions.
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16/12/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Central African Republic's Hidden Conflict
Away from the international spotlight, the Central African Republic’s rural areas are turning into fields of violence as war over territory and livestock hits a highly vulnerable population, with effects increasingly felt in neighbouring Cameroon and Chad.
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10/12/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka’s Presidential Election: Risks and Opportunities
Sri Lanka’s upcoming presidential election promises more competition than was initially anticipated. But with that comes a great risk of violence. Long-term stability and post-war reconciliation can only be achieved through a peaceful election resulting in a government committed to serving the interests of all Sri Lankans.
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05/12/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
A Coup Ordained? Thailand’s Prospects for Stability
Martial law has brought calm but not peace to Thailand’s febrile politics. The military regime’s stifling of dissent precludes a frank dialogue on the kingdom’s future and could lead to greater turmoil than that which brought about the May 2014 coup.
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02/12/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch 136, 1 December 2014
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09/11/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Turkey and the PKK: Saving the Peace Process
The peace process between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is threatened by ceasefire violations and spillover from the conflicts in Syria and Iraq. Both sides must set aside pretexts and inertia and seize the opportunity of having powerful leaders able to implement a deal whose outlines are clearer than ever.
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03/11/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Looming Military Offensives in South Sudan
Warring parties in South Sudan’s civil war are preparing for major offensives as seasonal rains ease. Hardliners in both the government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) are entrenching their positions, and think, as one opposition commander declared, “we will settle this with war”.
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30/10/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Alert: Looming Military Offensives in South Sudan
Warring parties in South Sudan’s civil war are preparing for major offensives as seasonal rains ease. Hardliners in both the government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO) are entrenching their positions, and think, as one opposition commander declared, “we will settle this with war”.
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30/10/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Resetting Pakistan’s Relations with Afghanistan
As Pakistan seeks to consolidate its fragile democracy, it should seize the moment to improve relations with its Afghan neighbour. Its biggest challenge comes from within. The civilian government has to regain control over national security and foreign policy from the military.
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22/10/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Myanmar: The Politics of Rakhine State
The highly volatile situation in Myanmar’s Rakhine State adds dangerously to the country’s political and religious tensions. Long-term, incremental solutions are critical for the future of Rakhine State and the country as a whole.
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22/10/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Tunisia’s Borders (II): Terrorism and Regional Polarisation
The growing link between cartels and armed jihadi militants along Tunisia’s borders with Algeria and Libya, combined with heightened ideological polarisation, could form an explosive mix ahead of Tunisia’s legislative and presidential elections.
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18/10/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Afghanistan’s Political Transition
Afghanistan’s new president, Ashraf Ghani, inherits a government that is running out of money and losing ground to the insurgency. As foreign troops withdraw, the new government must stay united and move quickly on reforms.
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13/10/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Bringing Back the Palestinian Refugee Question
With Palestinians increasingly doubtful that the refugee question can be resolved within a two-state framework, the Palestinian leadership should seek to reinvigorate refugee communities as well as to reclaim its representation of them. When diplomacy emerges from its hiatus, the leadership will be able to negotiate and implement a peace agreement only if it wins refugees’ support or at least acquiescence.
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02/10/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch 134, 1 October 2014
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01/10/2014 | Frente Externo
Zimbabwe: Waiting for the Future
Zimbabwe’s growing instability is exacerbated by dire economic decline, endemic governance failures, and tensions over ruling party succession; without major political and economic reforms, the country could slide into being a failed state.
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23/09/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Venezuela: Dangerous Inertia
The end of street protests does not mean the end of Venezuela’s crisis. Rising economic problems and unaddressed political demands could lead to renewed violence and threaten national stability.
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11/09/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Water Pressures in Central Asia
Growing tensions in the Ferghana Valley are exacerbated by disputes over shared water resources. To address this, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan urgently need to step back from using water or energy as a coercive tool and focus on reaching a series of modest, bilateral agreements, pending comprehensive resolution of this serious problem.
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09/09/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Alert: Unrest in Sanaa
Yemen’s troubled transition is at a crossroads more dangerous than any since 2011. The Huthis, a Zaydi Shiite movement also known as Ansar Allah, are mobilising in the capital, organising demonstrations calling for the government’s demise and reinstating the fuel subsidies that were lifted in July.
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08/09/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Cameroon: Prevention Is Better than Cure
Cameroon’s apparent stability belies the variety of internal and external pressures threatening the country’s future. Without social and political change, a weakened Cameroon could become another flashpoint in the region.
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05/09/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch 133, 1 September 2014
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21/08/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Alert: Protecting Pakistan’s Threatened Democracy
A little over a year ago, Pakistan entered an unprecedented second phase of democratic transition, with one elected government handing power to another by peaceful, constitutional means.
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15/08/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Central African Crisis: From Predation to Stabilisation
To stabilise the Central African Republic (CAR), the transitional government and its international partners need to prioritise, alongside security, action to fight corruption and trafficking of natural resources, as well as revive the economy.
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05/08/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Risks of Intelligence Pathologies in South Korea
In the shadow of growing North Korean threats, South Korea needs to reform its intelligence apparatus to restore public confidence while enhancing the country’s intelligence capacity.
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03/08/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch 132, 1 August 2014
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25/07/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Old Scores and New Grudges: Evolving Sino-Japanese Tensions
The deterioration in relations between China and Japan has spiraled beyond an island sovereignty dispute and risks an armed conflict neither wants. A November regional summit is a fence-mending opportunity – if the two countries’ leaders rise above nationalism and manage multiple flashpoints.
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10/07/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Alert: Halting South Sudan's Spreading Civil War
The war between the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/SPLA) government and the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) that began in Juba in December and spread to the three Greater Upper Nile states (Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity) is in danger of escalation, including more atrocities and famine.
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21/06/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Corridor of Violence: The Guatemala-Honduras Border
Ending bloodshed in this neglected border region requires more than task forces: credible institutions, access to state services and continuing security are also needed.
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21/06/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Corredor de violencia: la frontera entre Guatemala y Honduras
Una de las áreas más peligrosas de América Central está ubicada a lo largo de la frontera de Guatemala con Honduras.
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13/06/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Tunisian Exception: Limits and Success of Consensus
To prevent a rerun of last year’s political crisis, Tunisia needs far-sighted political precautions that can preserve the national compromise beyond the 2014 elections.
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22/05/2014 | Frente Externo
Venezuela: Tipping Point
Failure to resolve the Venezuelan crisis could plunge the country into yet more violence, leaving it unable to address soaring criminality and economic decline and exposing the inability of regional inter-governmental bodies to manage the continent’s conflicts.
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15/05/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Counting the Costs: Myanmar’s Problematic Census
Myanmar’s controversial census has inflamed ethnic tensions at a critical moment in the peace process. Releasing the data will require great political sensitivity to avoid further violence, all the more so with elections scheduled for 2015.
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13/05/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Afghanistan’s Insurgency after the Transition
To contain a growing, increasingly confident insurgency as NATO troops withdraw, Afghanistan needs continued international support, including military, and the new government in Kabul will need to reinvigorate the state’s commitment to the rule of law.
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29/04/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iraq: Falluja’s Faustian Bargain
An alliance between the local military council and the jihadi ISIL group is keeping the besieging Iraqi army at bay around Falluja, but unless Sunni alienation is addressed, the city risks a new round of devastating conflict.
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22/04/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Myanmar’s Military: Back to the Barracks?
It was Myanmar’s military that initiated the end of its own dictatorship; to advance stable reform, it needs to continue withdrawing from civilian life.
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08/04/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Guinea-Bissau: Elections, But Then What?
Guinea-Bissau’s elections are an important first step, but to address its economic and political fragility, the country needs strong international help, as well as political and military will for reform.
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08/04/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Divided Cyprus: Coming to Terms on an Imperfect Reality
To avoid another failed effort at federal reunification in the new round of Cyprus negotiations, all sides should break old taboos and discuss all possible options, including independence for Turkish Cypriots within the European Union.
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08/04/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Curbing Violence in Nigeria (II): The Boko Haram Insurgency
Boko Haram’s four-year-old insurgency has pitted neighbour against neighbour, cost more than 4,000 lives, displaced close to half a million, destroyed hundreds of schools and government buildings and devastated an already ravaged economy in the North East, one of Nigeria’s poorest regions.
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08/04/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Security Challenges of Pastoralism in Central Africa
The southward seasonal migration of pastoralists with their cattle is a source of friction that has long been ignored in Central Africa.
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03/04/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Curbing Violence in Nigeria (II): The Boko Haram Insurgency
In an environment of poverty, injustice and lack of political will for reform, Boko Haram’s growing strength and dissemination is increasingly putting local and regional stability at risk.
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17/02/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Fields of Bitterness (II): Restitution and Reconciliation in Burundi
To avoid a revival of past ethnic tensions between Hutu and Tutsi, Burundi needs to find the right balance between land restitution and national reconciliation.
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27/01/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (III): The Limits of Darfur’s Peace Process
If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country’s multiple conflicts need to develop a more holistic means of addressing both local conflicts and nationwide grievances.
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23/01/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Policing Urban Violence in Pakistan
Jihadi and criminal violence is wreaking havoc in Pakistan’s provincial capitals, eroding stability and public confidence in the government’s ability to restore law and order and enforce the writ of the state, while exposing Pakistan’s religious minorities to ever intensifying confessionally-driven violence.
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13/01/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Thailand: Conflict Alert
The campaign by anti-government protesters to derail the 2 February election raises prospects of widespread political violence, and scope for peaceful resolution is narrowing. Protests may aim to provoke a military coup, or encourage a judicial coup.
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05/01/2014 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°125, 02 January 2014
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26/12/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
South Sudan - Open Letter to the UN Secretary-General
I am writing concerning the situation in South Sudan. Like you, we have been following the country’s descent into civil conflict with growing dismay and concern. Crisis Group has been greatly encouraged by the calls you have been making for a decisive international response to this critical development.
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06/11/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°123, 01 November 2013
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18/10/2013 | Sociedad
Women and Conflict in Afghanistan
Women are increasingly exposed to violence and exclusion from the public sphere as Afghanistan nears the 2014 security transition and conservative forces gain momentum.
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17/10/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Anything But Politics: The State of Syria’s Political Opposition
Often derided for its infighting or dismissed as irrelevant, Syria’s political opposition reflects the contradictions and conflicting geopolitical interests upon which it was founded.
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08/10/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Yemen’s Southern Question: Avoiding a Breakdown
Yemen must agree on its state structure, including the South’s status, to forge a stable future. A final agreement cannot be forced by the National Dialogue Conference; for some key issues, only continued, more inclusive talks in the context of confidence-building measures can succeed.
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05/10/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°122, 01 October 2013
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01/10/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Dark Side of Transition: Violence against Muslims in Myanmar
Unless there is an effective government response and change in societal attitudes, violence against Myanmar’s Muslim communities could spread, jeopardising the country’s transition as well as its standing in the region and beyond.
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22/09/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Parliament's Role in Pakistan's Democratic Transition
To consolidate democracy, Pakistan's new parliament needs institutional reform and strong cross-party determination to fend off an interventionist military and over-reaching judiciary.
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06/09/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The North Caucasus: The Challenges of Integration (III), Governance, Elections, Rule of Law
Stronger democratic institutions are crucial to easing violence in Russia’s North Caucasus, where Europe’s worst armed conflict claimed at least 1,225 victims in 2012 and 495 in the first six months of 2013.
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03/09/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°121, 01 September 2013
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02/09/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Syria Statement
Assuming the U.S. Congress authorises them, Washington (together with some allies) soon will launch military strikes against Syrian regime targets.
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09/08/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Marching in Circles: Egypt’s Dangerous Second Transition
Nearly two-and-half years after Hosni Mubarak’s overthrow, Egypt is embarking on a transition in many ways disturbingly like the one it just experienced, only with different actors at the helm and far more fraught and violent.
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09/08/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Ethiopia: Prospects for Peace in Ogaden
The most credible attempt at talks to end decades of armed conflict in Ogaden may soon resume, but concerted efforts need to be made to guide them to a peaceful resolution.
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31/07/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Zimbabwe’s Elections: Mugabe’s Last Stand
A return to protracted political crisis, and possibly extensive violence, is likely as Zimbabwe holds elections on 31 July. Conditions for a free and fair vote do not exist.
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31/07/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Understanding Conflict in Eastern Congo (I): The Ruzizi Plain
The February 2013 framework agreement signed by the UN, African organisations and eleven regional countries, as well as the deployment of an intervention brigade, represent yet another of many attempts to end the crisis in the Kivus.
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28/07/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Burkina Faso: With or Without Compaoré, Times of Uncertainty
If President Blaise Compaoré fails to manage his departure well, the country could face political upheaval in an increasingly troubled region.
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27/06/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Managing Mali’s elections: a short delay would pay long-term dividends
The recent agreement between the government and two rebel Tuareg groups is a positive step, but Mali’s politicians should now consider delaying presidential elections, the first round of which is currently scheduled for 28 July.
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26/06/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Afghanistan’s Parties in Transition
Afghanistan’s political parties must exercise restraint as they jostle for power in the final months of President Karzai’s mandate. For its part, the outgoing administration should also resist calls to excessively regulate the parties. A commitment to pluralism, by all players, is key to the legitimacy of Kabul politics – and an important advantage against armed insurgents.
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22/06/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Philippines: Dismantling Rebel Groups
The future of thousands of fighters is at stake following an historic deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The government, MILF leaders and donors worry that rebel soldiers could slip back into violence.
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19/06/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (II): War in Blue Nile
The war in Sudan’s Blue Nile state will grind on until the Khartoum government re-engages in national dialogue with opposition forces, including the Blue Nile rebels.
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14/06/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
A Tentative Peace in Myanmar’s Kachin Conflict
The deal that has now been struck between the Myanmar government and the Kachin armed group is a major step forward, but securing a sustainable peace will require much more work.
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05/06/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°118, 01 June 2013
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29/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Buying Time? Money, Guns and Politics in the West Bank
The West Bank is experiencing rising instability and insecurity that palliative measures can help contain but can neither reverse nor end in the absence of a broad political settlement.
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29/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Justice at the Barrel of a Gun: Vigilante Militias in Mexico
The rise of civilian militias to combat lawlessness will make it harder than ever to defeat the cartels unless the government regulates the vigilantes.
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21/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Drones: Myths and Reality in Pakistan
Drone strikes alone will not eliminate the jihadi threat in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Extension of Pakistani law and full constitutional rights to the region is the only long-term solution.
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16/05/2013 | Frente Externo
Venezuela: A House Divided
Legal challenges to the close 14 April presidential election and the government’s reluctance to commit to a full review cast a shadow over the sustainability of the new administration in an already deeply polarised Venezuela.
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14/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Statement on the Ríos Montt Conviction for Genocide, War Crimes
In a historic decision, a Guatemalan court convicted former military dictator José Efraín Ríos Montt on 10 May of genocide and crimes against humanity for the massacre, torture, rape and forced displacement of indigenous villagers during counter-insurgency campaigns in the early 1980s.
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13/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Too Close for Comfort: Syrians in Lebanon
As the Syrian conflict increasingly implicates and spills over into Lebanon, a priority for its government and international partners must be to tackle the refugee crisis, lest it ignite domestic conflict that a weak state and volatile region can ill afford.
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08/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Timor-Leste: Stability at What Cost?
Although swelling oil and gas revenues have bought Timor-Leste peace, political empowerment, security reforms and fiscal caution are needed to ensure stability can outlast the boom.
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07/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Tensions over Aceh’s Flag
A dispute over a flag in Aceh is testing the limits of autonomy, irritating Indonesia’s central government, heightening ethnic tensions, reviving a campaign for the division of the province and raising fears of violence as the 2014 national elections approach.
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06/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Zimbabwe: Election Scenarios
The pervasive fear of violence and intimidation in Zimbabwe’s 2013 elections contradicts political leaders’ rhetorical commitments to peace, and raises concerns that the country may not be ready to go to the polls.
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02/05/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°117, 01 May 2013
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30/04/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Blurring the Borders: Syrian Spillover Risks for Turkey
As the humanitarian crisis reaches catastrophic proportions, Syria needs to open its borders to external aid, while Turkey and its international partners need more long-term planning to meet growing refugee needs and avoid having instability spillover the porous border.
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27/04/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iraq: The Sectarian Divide
The months-long standoff in Iraq between Sunni Arab protesters and the central government has begun a perilous, downward slide toward confrontation.
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17/04/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Trial by Error: Justice in Post-Qadhafi Libya
Unless Libya breaks the cycle of violence and urgently reforms its justice system, there is a real risk of an increase in assassinations, urban violence and communal conflicts.
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12/04/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mali: Security, Dialogue and Meaningful Reform
Mali and its international partners need to seize the moment for national dialogue to forestall renewed political and security crises.
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11/04/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Abkhazia: The Long Road to Reconciliation
More than two decades after the Soviet Union’s collapse, the three-sided conflict involving breakaway Abkhazia, Georgia and Russia is far from a solution, so all should concentrate on achievable goals, including intensified dialogue on basic security-related and humanitarian issues.
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08/04/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Dangerous Waters: China-Japan Relations on the Rocks
China and Japan must begin talks on crisis prevention and mitigation regarding the disputed waters of the East China Sea to avoid an accidental clash that could lead to a larger conflict.
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04/04/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Yemen’s Military-Security Reform: Seeds of New Conflict?
Yemen must take further steps to reform its security forces, or longstanding divisions could well undermine its political transition, which entered into a six-month “national dialogue” on 18 March.
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02/04/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°116, 01 April 2013
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01/04/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition
Change is in the air in Eritrea, a highly authoritarian state, but any political transition will require internal political inclusion and channels for external dialogue if it is to preserve stability and improve Eritrean life.
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19/03/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Criminal Cartels and Rule of Law in Mexico
Mexico must build an effective police and justice system, as well as implement comprehensive social programs, if it is to escape the extraordinary violence triggered by the country’s destructive cartels in extortion, kidnapping and control of transnational crime.
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13/03/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Korean Peninsula: Flirting with Conflict
North Korea has taken a number of recent steps that raise the risks of miscalculation, inadvertent escalation and deadly conflict on the Korean peninsula.
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07/03/2013 | Frente Externo
Venezuela’s Presidential Transition
The death of President Hugo Chávez casts a shadow over a polarised Venezuela whose immediate political stability cannot be taken for granted. In extending its condolences to the government and people, Crisis Group calls on all sides to respect the constitutional framework and act prudently in order to avoid violence in what may prove a tense and difficult transition to the post-Chávez era.
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04/03/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°115, 1 March 2013
The assassination on 6 February of opposition leader Chokri Belaïd sparked Tunisia’s worst political crisis since the 2011 revolution. The killing triggered mass protests throughout the country against the ruling Islamist party An-Nahda, and in turn counter-protests by An-Nahda supporters. Having dissolved the government in response to the assassination, Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali later resigned after his plan to form an interim cabinet of technocrats collapsed in the face of opposition from his own An-Nahda party.
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04/03/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China’s Central Asia Problem
China’s influence is growing rapidly in Central Asia at a time when the region is looking increasingly unstable.
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01/03/2013 | Frente Externo
Salvaging Guinea’s elections?
The opposition’s recent suspension of its participation in preparations for the May legislative elections illustrates the tensions threatening Guinea’s fragile democratic transition. Worse still, they may undermine its brittle internal peace.
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26/02/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Bosnia’s Dangerous Tango: Islam and Nationalism
Occasional violence notwithstanding, Islamism poses little danger in Bosnia, whose real risk stems from clashing national ideologies, especially as Islamic religious leaders increasingly reply with Bosniak nationalism to renewed Croat and Serb challenges to the state’s territorial integrity.
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20/02/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka’s Authoritarian Turn
As the UN Human Rights Council prepares to open its 22nd session next week, the Sri Lankan government has made no meaningful progress on either reconciliation or accountability and instead has accelerated the country’s authoritarian turn, with attacks on the judiciary and political dissent that threaten long-term stability and peace.
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19/02/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Serbia and Kosovo: The Path to Normalisation
Serbia and Kosovo must build on a recent breakthrough in negotiations and extend dialogue to sensitive issues, especially northern Kosovo’s institutions, in order to keep their fragile relationship moving forward.
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19/02/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Serbia and Kosovo: The Path to Normalisation
Serbia and Kosovo must build on a recent breakthrough in negotiations and extend dialogue to sensitive issues, especially northern Kosovo’s institutions, in order to keep their fragile relationship moving forward.
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18/02/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Guinea: A Way Out of the Election Quagmire
Overdue legislative elections in Guinea could rapidly degenerate into violence in the absence of consensus on electoral procedures.
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15/02/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (I): War in South Kordofan
Only a comprehensive solution can end Sudan’s vicious civil wars that are exacting a horrendous toll on the country and its peoples.
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06/02/2013 | Frente Externo
Totonicapán: Tension in Guatemala’s Indigenous Hinterland
The killing of protestors last October was a tragedy foretold by those who have long warned against Guatemala’s use of the armed forces to maintain domestic peace.
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04/02/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Egypt Conflict Alert
It is difficult to know which is most dangerous: the serious uptick in street violence; President Morsi’s and the Muslim Brotherhood’s serial inability to reach out to the rest of the political class inclusively; or the opposition clinging to the hope of some extraneous event (demonstrations, foreign pressure, judicial rulings or military intervention) allowing it to gain power while bypassing arduous compromise and politics.
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03/02/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°114, 01 February 2013
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22/01/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Syria’s Kurds: A Struggle Within a Struggle
Syria’s conflict gives its Kurdish population an opening to rectify historic wrongs and push for more autonomy, but facing internal divisions, poor ties with the non-Kurdish opposition and regional rivalries, its challenge is to articulate clear, unified and achievable demands.
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18/01/2013 | Frente Externo
Kenya’s 2013 Elections
Preparations for elections in Kenya turn into high gear today as the parties in the three major coalitions nominate their candidates.
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15/01/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan: Countering Militancy in PATA
To overcome the security challenges and curb extremism in Pakistan’s Provincially Administered Tribal Areas (PATA), its national and provincial leaderships should reclaim the political space ceded to the military.
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02/01/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Central African Republic: Avoiding Another Battle of Bangui
Over the last three weeks, the “Seleka” rebellion has extended its control over a large part of the Central African Republic (CAR) and is now on the doorstep of the capital, Bangui.
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02/01/2013 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°113, 30 December 2012
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18/12/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Georgia: Making Cohabitation Work
Whether the smooth transfer of power Georgia achieved after October’s bitter election sets a standard for democracy in its region depends on whether the new government can strengthen the independence and accountability of state institutions in what remains a fragile, even potentially explosive political climate.
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12/12/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Gulf of Guinea: The New Danger Zone
Rising piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, which supplies around 40 per cent of Europe’s oil and 29 per cent of the U.S.’s, demands effective regional security cooperation and better economic governance to prevent the region becoming another Gulf of Aden.
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05/12/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Philippines: Breakthrough in Mindanao
The next round of talks between the Philippines’ largest Muslim insurgent group and the government is a crucial step towards implementing a sweeping peace agreement signed in October.
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03/12/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°112, 1 December 2012
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28/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Côte d’Ivoire: Defusing Tensions
President Alassane Ouattara’s coalition is walking a dangerous path toward polarisation by repeating mistakes made by previous governments that could ultimately lead Côte d’Ivoire back to crisis.
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28/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka: Tamil Politics and the Quest for a Political Solution
The Sri Lankan government’s refusal to negotiate seriously with Tamil political leaders or consider reasonable forms of power sharing is heightening ethnic tensions and damaging prospects for sustainable peace.
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26/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
A Way Out of Egypt’s Transitional Quicksand
President Mohamed Morsi’s dramatic one-two punch – producing a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas on 22 November; issuing a constitutional declaration granting himself full powers the next day - was proof of remarkable political deftness.
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24/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Colombia: ¿por fin la paz?
Después de décadas de negociaciones fallidas e intentos por derrotar militarmente a las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) y al Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), una solución política al conflicto más antiguo del hemisferio occidental puede estar a la vista.
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22/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Israel and Hamas: Fire and Ceasefire in a New Middle East
The latest round of fighting between Israel and Hamas must move beyond the quick-fix solutions of conflicts past, or the seeds of a future flare-up will be sown today.
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21/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka: Tamil Politics and the Quest for a Political Solution
The Sri Lankan government’s refusal to negotiate seriously with Tamil political leaders or consider reasonable forms of power sharing is heightening ethnic tensions and damaging prospects for sustainable peace.
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21/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
DR Congo’s Goma: Avoiding a New Regional War
The east Congolese city of Goma and its key airport have reportedly fallen after heavy fighting to the M23 rebel group. Regional and international actors must now prevent this turning into a new regional war. The past week has shown history repeating itself in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with the same tragic consequences for civilians in the region.
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12/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Myanmar: Storm Clouds on the Horizon
Even as Myanmar’s democratic transition continues apace, ethnic violence in Rakhine State represents a threat to national stability. It demands decisive moral leadership from all the country’s leaders as they strive to find long-term solutions to the many challenges that lie ahead, including longstanding discrimination of the Rohingya and other Muslim minorities.
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01/11/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°111, 1 November 2012
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25/10/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Burundi: Bye-bye Arusha?
Since the 2010 boycotted elections, Burundi is steadily drifting away from what was initially regarded as a peacemaking model, and violence from both the ruling party and the opposition is threatening stability.
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19/10/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Troubled North Caucasus: The Challenges of Integration
Russia’s North Caucasus region is Europe’s deadliest conflict today, with some 574 deaths already this year, and the killing is unlikely to end soon.
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19/10/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Implementing Peace and Security Architecture (II): Southern Africa
To preserve Southern Africa’s relative peace in the face of rising challenges and threats, Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states must collectively reinforce its peace and security architecture.
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10/09/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Setting Kosovo Free: Remaining Challenges
Kosovo deserves to celebrate today as the international community converts the “supervised independence” it achieved four years ago to full independence, but it must also do more to guarantee full protection of minority rights, especially those of the country’s Serb population.
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06/09/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°109, 1 September 2012
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27/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal’s Constitution: The Political Impasse
Nepal’s major political parties must urgently agree on a roadmap to negotiate on federalism and write the new constitution, whether by holding elections to a new Constituent Assembly or reviving the previous body.
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22/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somalia: From Troubled Transition to a Tarnished Transition?
The term of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Institutions has expired, and there is no new president to take office as envisaged.
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22/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Ethiopia After Meles
The West will need to show tougher love to his successor than it did to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who died Monday, if one of its most important regional allies is to remain stable.
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17/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Beyond Turf Wars in Coup-Hit Guinea-Bissau
International actors need to commit to a common strategy to help coup-plagued Guinea-Bissau implement the security, justice and electoral reforms it needs to escape its status as a link in drug trafficking to Europe.
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16/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Election Reform in Pakistan
With fresh elections just months away, Pakistan’s government and opposition must urgently implement key reforms to the electoral commission to cement the transition to democracy and stave off another indefinite period of unaccountable rule.
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14/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Hamas & the Arab Uprisings
New dynamics in the Arab world present opportunities for Hamas and the West to redefine their relationship, but it will take a far greater display of pragmatism and realism than either has exhibited.
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09/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Dynamics of Violence in Papua
The only measure likely to halt violence in Indonesia’s Papua province in the short term is a major overhaul of security policy.
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07/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Déjà Vu All Over Again: Iraq’s Escalating Political Crisis
At first glance, the current Iraqi political crisis looks like just one more predictable bump in the long road from dictatorship to democracy.
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03/08/2012 | Frente Externo
Towards a Post-MINUSTAH Haiti: Making an Effective Transition
The UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) needs a gradual reconfiguration of its operations prior to a withdrawal, to avoid a security vacuum and give Haiti the chance for sustainable development.
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01/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iraq - Iraq’s Secular Opposition: The Rise and Decline of Al-Iraqiya
The demise of Iraq’s Al-Iraqiya Alliance, at threat of marginalisation, would remove the country’s sole credible political representative of a very important community: the secular, non-sectarian middle class.
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01/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Middle East - Syria: Syria’s Mutating Conflict
As fighting rages in Aleppo, the combination of a regime morphing into a formidable militia and an Alawite community fearing for its survival leaves Syria’s opposition – itself threatened with radicalisation – with a difficult task: to tackle its own demons, reach out to the Alawites and focus on restoring strife-torn institutions.
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01/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iraq - Iraq’s Secular Opposition: The Rise and Decline of Al-Iraqiya
The demise of Iraq’s Al-Iraqiya Alliance, at threat of marginalisation, would remove the country’s sole credible political representative of a very important community: the secular, non-sectarian middle class.
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01/08/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Middle East - Syria: Syria’s Mutating Conflict
As fighting rages in Aleppo, the combination of a regime morphing into a formidable militia and an Alawite community fearing for its survival leaves Syria’s opposition – itself threatened with radicalisation – with a difficult task: to tackle its own demons, reach out to the Alawites and focus on restoring strife-torn institutions.
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28/07/2012 | Frente Externo
Myanmar: The Politics of Economic Reform
Political transition and economic reconstruction are deeply entwined in Myanmar, and the government, the country’s elites and the international community must embrace both for the dramatic reforms underway to succeed.
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28/07/2012 | Frente Externo
Myanmar: The Politics of Economic Reform
Political transition and economic reconstruction are deeply entwined in Myanmar, and the government, the country’s elites and the international community must embrace both for the dramatic reforms underway to succeed.
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28/07/2012 | Frente Externo
Myanmar: The Politics of Economic Reform
Political transition and economic reconstruction are deeply entwined in Myanmar, and the government, the country’s elites and the international community must embrace both for the dramatic reforms underway to succeed.
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28/07/2012 | Frente Externo
Myanmar: The Politics of Economic Reform
Political transition and economic reconstruction are deeply entwined in Myanmar, and the government, the country’s elites and the international community must embrace both for the dramatic reforms underway to succeed.
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27/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
North Korean Succession and the Risks of Instability
Despite last week’s abrupt shuffle at the top of the military leadership, Kim Jŏng-ŭn appears to be firmly established as the new leader of North Korea, completing a faster and smoother power transition than many experts anticipated.
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27/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
North Korean Succession and the Risks of Instability
Despite last week’s abrupt shuffle at the top of the military leadership, Kim Jŏng-ŭn appears to be firmly established as the new leader of North Korea, completing a faster and smoother power transition than many experts anticipated.
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27/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
North Korean Succession and the Risks of Instability
Despite last week’s abrupt shuffle at the top of the military leadership, Kim Jŏng-ŭn appears to be firmly established as the new leader of North Korea, completing a faster and smoother power transition than many experts anticipated.
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27/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
North Korean Succession and the Risks of Instability
Despite last week’s abrupt shuffle at the top of the military leadership, Kim Jŏng-ŭn appears to be firmly established as the new leader of North Korea, completing a faster and smoother power transition than many experts anticipated.
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24/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Stirring up the South China Sea (II): Regional Responses
The long-simmering South China Sea dispute is doomed to escalate if the countries contesting its waters fail to take steps to reduce tensions.
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24/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Police Reform in Guatemala: Obstacles and Opportunities
To stem the violence that kills thousands of Guatemalans each year, the government must find the resources and will to carry out long-stalled reforms of the national police.
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24/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Bosnia’s Gordian Knot: Constitutional Reform
Only thorough constitutional reform can resolve Bosnia and Herzegovina’s deep political crisis and implement a landmark European Court of Human Rights decision to put an end to ethnic discrimination.
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18/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Mali: Avoiding Escalation
Calls for military intervention in Mali are increasing but it could sink the state, which is already on the brink of dissolution, further into chaos.
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16/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
How Indonesian Extremists Regroup
Almost ten years after the 2002 Bali bombing, Indonesian extremists are weak and divided but still finding partners for new operations.
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13/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Black Gold in the Congo: Threat to Stability or Development Opportunity?
Renewed oil interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could nurture communal resentments, exacerbate deep-rooted conflict dynamics and weaken national cohesion.
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05/07/2012 | Frente Externo
Dangerous Uncertainty ahead of Venezuela Elections
Uncertainty over President Hugo Chávez’s health deepens Venezuela’s fragility ahead of presidential elections in October and sparks fears of instability.
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05/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Elecciones en Venezuela: Peligrosas Incertidumbres
RESUMEN EJECUTIVO & RECOMENDACIONES
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05/07/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Yemen: Enduring Conflicts, Threatened Transition
Flawed as it is, Yemen’s political settlement avoided a potentially devastating civil war and secured President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s resignation, but now the challenge is to address longstanding political and economic grievances.
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05/07/2012 | En Parrilla
Libya’s Elections under Threat
With only days to go, Libya’s first national elections of the post-Qadhafi era are imperilled by armed protesters who, driven by a feeling of continued economic and political marginalisation, are threatening to disrupt the vote in the eastern part of the country.
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28/06/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Aid and Conflict in Pakistan
Despite many billions of dollars, international assistance to Pakistan, particularly from the U.S., its largest donor, is neither improving the government’s performance against jihadi groups nor stabilising its nascent democracy.
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26/06/2012 | Frente Externo
Armenia: An Opportunity for Statesmanship
Unless Armenia’s next presidential election is fair and gives its winner a strong political mandate, the government will lack the legitimacy needed to implement comprehensive reforms, tackle corruption and negotiate a peaceful end to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
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25/06/2012 | Frente Externo
Egypt - Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, has won the presidential election
Celebrated by millions of Egyptians, yesterday's announcement that Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, has won the presidential election undoubtedly marks a milestone in the country’s history.
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12/06/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Myanmar Conflict Alert: Preventing communal bloodshed and building better relations
The communal bloodshed in Myanmar’s Rakhine State represents both a consequence of, and threat to, Myanmar’s current political transition.
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12/06/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Liberia: Time for Much-Delayed Reconciliation and Reform
Unemployment, corruption, nepotism and impunity threaten to entrench social and political divisions and jeopardise Liberia's democracy unless the government addresses persisting historical enmities.
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11/06/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Dismantling Colombia’s New Illegal Armed Groups: Lessons from a Surrender
The surrender of the Popular Revolutionary Anti-Terrorist Army of Colombia (ERPAC) exposed justice system and government strategy shortcomings that unless corrected will hamper efforts to combat groups which are now top security challenges.
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07/06/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Tunisia: Confronting Social and Economic Challenges
Formidable social and economic challenges threaten to undermine – or even halt – progress in Tunisia, despite the country’s positive transition to democracy.
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19/05/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Improving Security Policy in Colombia
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19/05/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Peace Requires a New Process
New ICG report calls for reset of current negotiations paradigm
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16/05/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Philippines: Local Politics in the Sulu Archipelago and the Peace Process
Politics in the Sulu archipelago could be an unforeseen stumbling block for a negotiated peace with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the southern Philippines.
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10/05/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Tunisia: Combatting Impunity, Restoring Security
Although Tunisia stands out in a turbulent Arab world for its relatively peaceful transition, justice and security must be bolstered to ensure long-term stability.
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07/05/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Palestinians and the End of the Peace Process
Israelis, Palestinians and the international community should reconsider the basic pillars of the Middle East Process, which in its current form will not yield a durable agreement.
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04/05/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan’s Relations with India: Beyond Kashmir?
Their recent dialogue process provides the best chance yet for bilateral peace and regional stability, but Pakistan and India must still overcome serious mistrust among hardliners in their security elites.
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02/05/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°105, 1 May 2012
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27/04/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Taylor Verdict a Warning to War Crimes Perpetrators
The landmark guilty verdict today against former Liberian President Charles Ghankay Taylor is a warning to those most responsible for atrocity crimes that they can be held accountable.
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24/04/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Lost in Transition: The World according to Egypt's SCAF
With Egypt's presidential election having become a free-for-all, zero-sum game, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) should take a step back and, with the full range of political actors, agree on principles for a genuine and safe political transition.
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23/04/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Stirring up the South China Sea
China is one of its own worst enemies in the South China Sea, as its local governments and agencies struggle for power and money, inflaming tensions with its neighbours, illustrated by Beijing's latest standoff with the Philippines.
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16/04/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Risk Alert: Bahrain
Beneath a façade of normalisation, Bahrain is sliding toward another dangerous eruption of violence. The government acts as if partial implementation of recommendations from the November 2011 Independent Commission of Inquiry (the Bassiouni Report) will suffice to restore tranquillity, but there is every reason to believe it is wrong.
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11/04/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Syria’s Phase of Radicalisation
With the Syrian crisis having taken a perilous turn, predictable obstacles in implementing UN envoy Kofi Annan’s peace plan should not lead to dropping what - for now at least - remains the only serious option on the table.
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06/04/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Uganda: No Resolution to Growing Tensions
Unless President Yoweri Museveni breaks with the ways of his predecessors and the trend of his own lengthy rule, popular protests and discontent will grow in Uganda.
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05/04/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China’s New Courtship in South Sudan
Following its oil interests and other opportunities to Juba, China is building a new relationship with South Sudan but finds itself drawn into a dangerous dispute that risks bringing the Sudans back to conflict.
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02/04/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Aphrodite’s Gift: Can Cypriot Gas Power a New Dialogue?
Though newly discovered gas reserves off Cyprus are currently driving the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities further apart, they could offer both newfound wealth if the parties, together with Turkey, would agree to start a new dialogue about exploiting and transporting this find.
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01/04/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°104, 1 April 2012
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30/03/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Kyrgyzstan: Widening Ethnic Divisions in the South
Kyrgyzstan’s disregard for its Uzbek community is pushing the ethnic minority to breaking point.
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27/03/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan
A major course correction is needed if talks with the Taliban are to have any chance of delivering sustainable peace in Afghanistan.
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21/03/2012 | Transparencia
Burundi: A Deepening Corruption Crisis
Despite the establishment of anti-corruption agencies, Burundi is facing a deepening corruption crisis that jeopardises prospects for lasting peace and stability.
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21/03/2012 | Transparencia
Burundi: A Deepening Corruption Crisis
Despite the establishment of anti-corruption agencies, Burundi is facing a deepening corruption crisis that jeopardises prospects for lasting peace and stability.
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17/03/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka’s North: Recipe for Renewed Conflict
The Sri Lankan military’s control over the political and economic life of the Northern Province is deepening the alienation and anger of northern Tamils and threatening sustainable peace.
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17/03/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka’s North: Recipe for Renewed Conflict
The Sri Lankan military’s control over the political and economic life of the Northern Province is deepening the alienation and anger of northern Tamils and threatening sustainable peace.
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15/03/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Back to Basics: Israel’s Arab Minority and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Israel should take urgent steps to integrate its Arab minority into the country’s civic order, but Israeli Jews and the Palestinian national movement need also to agree on the character of the State of Israel and the rights its Arab citizens should enjoy.
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15/03/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Back to Basics: Israel’s Arab Minority and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Israel should take urgent steps to integrate its Arab minority into the country’s civic order, but Israeli Jews and the Palestinian national movement need also to agree on the character of the State of Israel and the rights its Arab citizens should enjoy.
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06/03/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Now or Never: A Negotiated Transition for Syria
Kofi Annan’s appointment as joint UN/Arab League Special Envoy arguably offers a chance to rescue fading prospects for a negotiated transition in Syria. It must not be squandered.
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06/03/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Now or Never: A Negotiated Transition for Syria
Kofi Annan’s appointment as joint UN/Arab League Special Envoy arguably offers a chance to rescue fading prospects for a negotiated transition in Syria. It must not be squandered.
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04/03/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka: Government Promises, Ground Realities
Sri Lanka's post-war course is threatening future violence. As its 19th session in Geneva begins this week, the UN Human Rights Council has a chance to do something about it.
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04/03/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka: Government Promises, Ground Realities
Sri Lanka's post-war course is threatening future violence. As its 19th session in Geneva begins this week, the UN Human Rights Council has a chance to do something about it.
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29/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Averting Election Violence in Aceh
Election monitors should begin deployment to Aceh long before the 9 April election to deter intimidation.
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29/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Averting Election Violence in Aceh
Election monitors should begin deployment to Aceh long before the 9 April election to deter intimidation.
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29/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Averting Election Violence in Aceh
Election monitors should begin deployment to Aceh long before the 9 April election to deter intimidation.
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24/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
In Heavy Waters: Iran’s Nuclear Program, the Risk of War and Lessons from Turkey
As the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program edges closer to military confrontation, talks may be a way out but require mutual compromise and Western abandonment of the notion that a mix of threats and crippling sanctions will force Iran to back down.
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24/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
In Heavy Waters: Iran’s Nuclear Program, the Risk of War and Lessons from Turkey
As the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program edges closer to military confrontation, talks may be a way out but require mutual compromise and Western abandonment of the notion that a mix of threats and crippling sanctions will force Iran to back down.
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24/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
In Heavy Waters: Iran’s Nuclear Program, the Risk of War and Lessons from Turkey
As the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program edges closer to military confrontation, talks may be a way out but require mutual compromise and Western abandonment of the notion that a mix of threats and crippling sanctions will force Iran to back down.
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23/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Timor-Leste’s Elections: Leaving Behind a Violent Past?
Timor-Leste’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections will be an important step in consolidating the relative stability the country has enjoyed since recovering from the 2006 crisis, but a number of security risks deserve continued attention.
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23/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somalia: An Opportunity that Should Not Be Missed
If the international community can agree on but a few core policies, there is the best chance in years to foster peace in Somalia.
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23/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Timor-Leste’s Elections: Leaving Behind a Violent Past?
Timor-Leste’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections will be an important step in consolidating the relative stability the country has enjoyed since recovering from the 2006 crisis, but a number of security risks deserve continued attention.
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23/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somalia: An Opportunity that Should Not Be Missed
If the international community can agree on but a few core policies, there is the best chance in years to foster peace in Somalia.
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23/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Timor-Leste’s Elections: Leaving Behind a Violent Past?
Timor-Leste’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections will be an important step in consolidating the relative stability the country has enjoyed since recovering from the 2006 crisis, but a number of security risks deserve continued attention.
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23/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somalia: An Opportunity that Should Not Be Missed
If the international community can agree on but a few core policies, there is the best chance in years to foster peace in Somalia.
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17/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: The Deadly Cost of Poor Policing
Despite years of investment in community policing, the Indonesian police remain deeply distrusted by the people they are supposed to serve.
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16/02/2012 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Cautious Calm in Ambon
Five months after an outbreak of Christian-Muslim violence in Ambon, the city is outwardly calm and bustling, but many issues remain unresolved.
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03/11/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Risk Alert: Syria's Tipping Point
Syria's acceptance of the Arab League proposal to defuse the crisis presents an eleventh-hour opportunity to seek a negotiated transition before the conflict takes an even uglier turn. Despite understandable scepticism, both the protest movement and the international community ought to give this initiative a fair chance; for either one to dismiss or undermine it would be to offer the regime justification for rejecting both the deal and responsibility for its failure.
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02/11/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Moving Beyond Easy Wins: Colombia's Borders
Colombia needs bolder policies to cope with the violence in its border areas, because improved relations with its neighbours alone have neither effectively reduced ongoing conflict with illegal armed groups nor alleviated the plight of the local communities.
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12/10/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Reforming Pakistan’s Prison System
Reforming Pakistan’s corrupt and dysfunctional prison system is central to curbing rising crime and militancy, fixing a deteriorating criminal justice system and enforcing the rule of law.
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11/10/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Guatemala: Drug Trafficking and Violence
The bloody eruption of the Mexican Zetas cartel into its territory is the latest chapter in a vicious cycle of repeated government failures, massive corruption and criminal violence that threatens the frail democracy of Guatemala, the gateway for most of the drugs reaching the U.S. from Mexico.
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04/10/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Trouble Again in Ambon
The government needs to quickly answer questions about an outbreak of violence in Ambon on 11 September that has raised communal tensions and may have been the motivation for the 25 September bombing of a church in Solo, Central Java.
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27/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Failing Oversight: Iraq’s Unchecked Government
Spreading corruption threatens to undermine the significant progress Iraq has made toward reducing violence and strengthening state institutions.
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27/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Risk Alert: Stopping the Spread of Sudan's New Civil War
Civil war is spreading in Sudan, and concerted international action is needed to stem the violence and prevent it from engulfing the entire country and the wider region.
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24/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Guinea: Putting the Transition Back on Track
Unless Guinea’s main political actors agree on organising the pending legislative elections, there is a risk inter-communal tensions could spark violence that opens the army’s way back to power.
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23/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Myanmar: Major Reform Underway
Six months after the transition to a new, semi-civilian government, major changes are taking place in Myanmar, but many steps still need to be taken to overcome decades of conflict.
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15/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Lessons from Nigeria’s 2011 Elections
Nigeria’s April elections may have broken somewhat its cycle of deeply flawed polls, but the country still must meet many and daunting challenges to ensure a stable and democratic future.
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14/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka: Post-War Progress Report
The Government of Sri Lanka has not taken credible steps to ensure accountability for the grave allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity identified in the April 2011 report of the Secretary-General’s Panel of Experts on Accountability in Sri Lanka. Nor has the government pursued policies to reconcile the country’s ethnic communities after decades of political violence and conflict. Instead, its post-war agenda has been to further centralise power, expand the role of the military, undermine local civilian authorities, and politicise the institutions that should 20uphold the rule of law and combat impunity. As argued in Crisis Group’s most recent report, the risk of an eventual return to violence is growing again.
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12/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Curb Your Enthusiasm: Israel and Palestine after the UN
A UN resolution endorsing Palestinian statehood should produce a tangible gain for the Palestinians while providing some reassurance to Israelis, and, above all, be followed by maximum, collective restraint to prevent a cycle of mutual retaliation that would work to the detriment of all.
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09/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Keeping Haiti Safe: Police Reform
Kidnapping, urban gangs and unresolved killings form a trifecta of challenges to citizen safety that the four month-old Martelly administation must confront by speedily completing reforms to professionalise the Haitian National Police (HNP).
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09/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Keeping Haiti Safe: Police Reform
Kidnapping, urban gangs and unresolved killings form a trifecta of challenges to citizen safety that the four month-old Martelly administation must confront by speedily completing reforms to professionalise the Haitian National Police (HNP).
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06/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Congo: The Electoral Process Seen from the East
The technical preparations for the presidential and legislative elections scheduled on 28 November and the beginning of the electoral campaign in the East of Congo have generated suspicion that risks developing into a crisis of confidence in the whole electoral process.
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06/09/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Congo: The Electoral Process Seen from the East
The technical preparations for the presidential and legislative elections scheduled on 28 November and the beginning of the electoral campaign in the East of Congo have generated suspicion that risks developing into a crisis of confidence in the whole electoral process.
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23/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal: From Two Armies to One
Nepal’s Maoist combatants urgently need to be integrated into the national security forces and rehabilitated or retired to consolidate the peace process.
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23/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Liberia: How Sustainable Is the Recovery?
Liberia’s October 2011 presidential elections are an opportunity to consolidate its fragile peace and nascent democracy.
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23/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Libya: Ensuring a Smooth and Peaceful Transition into the Post-Qaddafi Era
As Libyans prepare for the Qaddafi regime's imminent demise, the country faces a pivotal moment of historic proportions. Steps taken in the next few days and weeks will decisively shape the post-Qaddafi order.
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23/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal: From Two Armies to One
Nepal’s Maoist combatants urgently need to be integrated into the national security forces and rehabilitated or retired to consolidate the peace process.
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23/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Liberia: How Sustainable Is the Recovery?
Liberia’s October 2011 presidential elections are an opportunity to consolidate its fragile peace and nascent democracy.
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23/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Libya: Ensuring a Smooth and Peaceful Transition into the Post-Qaddafi Era
As Libyans prepare for the Qaddafi regime's imminent demise, the country faces a pivotal moment of historic proportions. Steps taken in the next few days and weeks will decisively shape the post-Qaddafi order.
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22/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Hope and Hard Reality in Papua
A spike in violence in Indonesian Papua over the last two months underscores the urgency of exploring new ideas to address conflict there.
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22/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Hope and Hard Reality in Papua
A spike in violence in Indonesian Papua over the last two months underscores the urgency of exploring new ideas to address conflict there.
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14/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Macedonia: Ten Years after the Conflict
Ten years after the Ohrid Agreement ended fighting between ethnic Macedonians and Albanians, Macedonia is more stable and inclusive, but political party and ethnic tensions are growing, and the new government needs to reverse the negative trends.
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08/08/2011 | En Parrilla
Georgia-Russia: Learn to Live Like Neighbours
On the third anniversary of their war over South Ossetia, talks between Georgia and Russia are needed to create positive momentum in a still unstable environment.
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05/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°96
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05/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
A Critical Period for Ensuring Stability in Côte d’Ivoire
The coming to power of the elected President Ouattara should not mask reality. Côte d’Ivoire remains fragile and unstable. The atrocities after the second round of the presidential elections on 28 November 2010 and Laurent Gbagbo’s attempt to retain power by all means despite losing the election exacerbated already acute tensions.
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04/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Aid and Conflict in Afghanistan
After a decade of major security, development and humanitarian assistance, the international community has failed to achieve a politically stable and economically viable Afghanistan.
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04/08/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Philippines: A New Strategy for Peace in Mindanao?
The Philippine government is experimenting with a creative but risky new strategy to resolve the conflict in Mindanao.
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29/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform
Unless all sides to the conflict agree to an inclusive dialogue in order to reach meaningful reform, Bahrain is heading for prolonged and costly political stalemate.
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27/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Cutting the Link between Crime and Local Politics: Colombia’s 2011 Elections
If the interference of criminal groups in local politics is not addressed, they could become even a bigger threat to Colombia’s local democracy and national security.
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23/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Turkey and Greece: Time to Settle the Aegean Dispute
Normalisation between Greece and Turkey has come far since tensions in the Aegean Sea threatened war three times between the NATO allies. Trade, investments and mutual cooperation and tourism have taken off, sidelining issues like the Cyprus problem, which first stirred up the Aegean dispute in the early 1970s.
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22/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Palestinian Reconciliation: Plus Ça Change
The reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas is frozen, but implementation is necessary to minimise the risk of Israeli-Palestinian violence and bring about a Palestinian leadership able to reach and carry out peace with Israel.
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17/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Strangers at Home: North Koreans in the South
As the number of defectors from North Korea arriving in the South has surged in the past decade, reconfiguring integration programs for them has become crucial.
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17/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Strangers at Home: North Koreans in the South
As the number of defectors from North Korea arriving in the South has surged in the past decade, reconfiguring integration programs for them has become crucial.
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07/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (VI): The Syrian People’s Slow-motion Revolution
The Syrian uprising has defied conventional expectations and patterns established elsewhere in the region from the outset. It happened, first of all, and to many that in itself was surprising enough.
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07/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (VI): The Syrian People’s Slow-motion Revolution
The Syrian uprising has defied conventional expectations and patterns established elsewhere in the region from the outset. It happened, first of all, and to many that in itself was surprising enough.
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03/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Post-quake Haiti: Security Depends on Resettlement and Development
A year and a half after the Western Hemisphere’s deadliest earthquake devastated Haiti, 650,000 victims still wait for permanent housing in more than 1,000 unstable emergency camps dotting Port-au-Prince. The first storms of the 2011 hurricane season have flooded 30 camps, forcing tent dwellers to flee and killing 28 persons nationally. Michel Martelly, who replaced René Préval as president on 14 May, faces an immediate crisis in the growing frustrations of the victims in the camps and those with near identical unmet basic needs who remain in the urban slums.
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03/07/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Post-quake Haiti: Security Depends on Resettlement and Development
A year and a half after the Western Hemisphere’s deadliest earthquake devastated Haiti, 650,000 victims still wait for permanent housing in more than 1,000 unstable emergency camps dotting Port-au-Prince. The first storms of the 2011 hurricane season have flooded 30 camps, forcing tent dwellers to flee and killing 28 persons nationally. Michel Martelly, who replaced René Préval as president on 14 May, faces an immediate crisis in the growing frustrations of the victims in the camps and those with near identical unmet basic needs who remain in the urban slums.
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28/06/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Insurgency in Afghanistan’s Heartland
Collusion between insurgent elements and corrupt government officials in Kabul and the nearby provinces has increased, leading to a profusion of criminal networks in the Afghan heartland.
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28/06/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Insurgency in Afghanistan’s Heartland
Collusion between insurgent elements and corrupt government officials in Kabul and the nearby provinces has increased, leading to a profusion of criminal networks in the Afghan heartland.
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16/06/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: GAM vs GAM in the Aceh Elections
Five years after the first post-conflict elections in Aceh brought former guerrillas of the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) to power, local elections scheduled for November 2011 are turning into a bitter intra-GAM battle.
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16/06/2011 | Frente Externo
Guatemala’s Elections:
Violence and unregulated campaign finance endanger political institutions ahead of the Guatemalan polls in September.
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16/06/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: GAM vs GAM in the Aceh Elections
Five years after the first post-conflict elections in Aceh brought former guerrillas of the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) to power, local elections scheduled for November 2011 are turning into a bitter intra-GAM battle.
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16/06/2011 | Frente Externo
Guatemala’s Elections:
Violence and unregulated campaign finance endanger political institutions ahead of the Guatemalan polls in September.
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07/06/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Making Sense of Libya
The longer Libya’s military conflict persists, the more it risks undermining the anti-Qaddafi camp’s avowed objectives and the purpose claimed for NATO’s intervention, that of protecting civilians.
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07/06/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Making Sense of Libya
The longer Libya’s military conflict persists, the more it risks undermining the anti-Qaddafi camp’s avowed objectives and the purpose claimed for NATO’s intervention, that of protecting civilians.
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31/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Learning to Walk without a Crutch: The International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala
Despite the promising beginning made by a unique hybrid legal body established by agreement with the UN, a culture of fear and impunity still prevails in Guatemala.
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31/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Learning to Walk without a Crutch: The International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala
Despite the promising beginning made by a unique hybrid legal body established by agreement with the UN, a culture of fear and impunity still prevails in Guatemala.
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28/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Yemen: Conflict Risk Alert
In Yemen, political negotiations have given way to violent confrontation. Hostilities erupted on 23 May between military forces controlled by President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s son and nephews and fighters loyal to the preeminent sheikh of the powerful Hashed confederation, Sadiq al-Ahmar. To prevent further escalation and loss of life, the most urgent step is for both sides to immediately accept a ceasefire mediated by Yemen’s statesmen and tribal leaders.
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28/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Yemen: Conflict Risk Alert
In Yemen, political negotiations have given way to violent confrontation. Hostilities erupted on 23 May between military forces controlled by President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s son and nephews and fighters loyal to the preeminent sheikh of the powerful Hashed confederation, Sadiq al-Ahmar. To prevent further escalation and loss of life, the most urgent step is for both sides to immediately accept a ceasefire mediated by Yemen’s statesmen and tribal leaders.
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25/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Tajikistan: The Changing Insurgent Threats
Tajikistan, Central Asia’s poorest state and a key logistical link for international forces in Afghanistan, faces a growing security threat from both local and external rebels.
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24/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Georgia: The Javakheti Region’s Integration Challenges
To ensure political stability and that there is no opportunity for Russia or others to manipulate local politics, Georgia needs to improve integration of its mostly Armenian-populated Javakheti region.
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24/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Georgia: The Javakheti Region’s Integration Challenges
To ensure political stability and that there is no opportunity for Russia or others to manipulate local politics, Georgia needs to improve integration of its mostly Armenian-populated Javakheti region.
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07/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Bosnia: State Institutions Under Attack
Bosnia faces its worst crisis since war ended in 1995. Violence is probably not imminent, but there is a real prospect of it in the near future unless all sides pull away from the downward cycle of their maximalist positions.
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07/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Bosnia: State Institutions Under Attack
Bosnia faces its worst crisis since war ended in 1995. Violence is probably not imminent, but there is a real prospect of it in the near future unless all sides pull away from the downward cycle of their maximalist positions.
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06/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Congo: The Electoral Dilemma
Faced with the dilemma of respecting the constitutional deadline and organising botched elections, or ignoring that deadline and sliding into a situation of unconstitutional power, the Congolese authorities have chosen the first option.
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06/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Congo: The Electoral Dilemma
Faced with the dilemma of respecting the constitutional deadline and organising botched elections, or ignoring that deadline and sliding into a situation of unconstitutional power, the Congolese authorities have chosen the first option.
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05/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Divisions in Sudan’s Ruling Party and the Threat to the Country’s Future Stability
Unless Sudan’s grievances are addressed by a more inclusive government, the country risks further violence and disintegration even after the South’s independence becomes official in July.
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05/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Divisions in Sudan’s Ruling Party and the Threat to the Country’s Future Stability
Unless Sudan’s grievances are addressed by a more inclusive government, the country risks further violence and disintegration even after the South’s independence becomes official in July.
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03/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Syria: Quickly Going beyond the Point of No Return
The situation in Syria is quickly going beyond the point of no return. By denouncing all forms of protest as sedition, and dealing with them through escalating violence, the regime is closing the door on any possible honourable exit to a deepening national crisis. With little the international community can do, the optimal outcome is one whose chances are dwindling by the day: an immediate end to the violence and a genuine national dialogue to pave the way for a transition to a representative, democratic political order.
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03/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Syria: Quickly Going beyond the Point of No Return
The situation in Syria is quickly going beyond the point of no return. By denouncing all forms of protest as sedition, and dealing with them through escalating violence, the regime is closing the door on any possible honourable exit to a deepening national crisis. With little the international community can do, the optimal outcome is one whose chances are dwindling by the day: an immediate end to the violence and a genuine national dialogue to pave the way for a transition to a representative, democratic political order.
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02/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°93, 1 May 2011
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02/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°93, 1 May 2011
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01/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Popular Protests in North Africa and the Middle East (IV): Tunisia’s Way
As Tunisia continues its transition to democracy, it will need to balance the urge for radical political change against the requirement of stability; integrate Islamism into the new landscape; and, with international help, tackle deep socio-economic problems.
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01/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Zimbabwe: The Road to Reform or Another Dead End?
Intensified violence against those deemed to be ZANU-PF enemies has exposed the limitations of Zimbabwe’s much delayed reform process and threatens to derail the Global Political Agreement (GPA). President Mugabe’s call for early elections has increased fears of a return to 2008’s violence.
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01/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Popular Protests in North Africa and the Middle East (IV): Tunisia’s Way
As Tunisia continues its transition to democracy, it will need to balance the urge for radical political change against the requirement of stability; integrate Islamism into the new landscape; and, with international help, tackle deep socio-economic problems.
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01/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Zimbabwe: The Road to Reform or Another Dead End?
Intensified violence against those deemed to be ZANU-PF enemies has exposed the limitations of Zimbabwe’s much delayed reform process and threatens to derail the Global Political Agreement (GPA). President Mugabe’s call for early elections has increased fears of a return to 2008’s violence.
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22/04/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesian Jihadism: Small Groups, Big Plans
Violent extremism in Indonesia increasingly is taking the form of small groups acting independently of large jihadi organisations. This is in part a response to effective law enforcement that has resulted in widespread arrests and structural weakening of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), Jama’ah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT) and other organisations accused of links to terrorism.
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22/04/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesian Jihadism: Small Groups, Big Plans
Violent extremism in Indonesia increasingly is taking the form of small groups acting independently of large jihadi organisations. This is in part a response to effective law enforcement that has resulted in widespread arrests and structural weakening of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), Jama’ah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT) and other organisations accused of links to terrorism.
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18/04/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Timor-Leste: Reconciliation and Return from Indonesia
The return of thousands of former refugees who fled across the border from Timor-Leste to Indonesia after the 1999 referendum should be encouraged by both governments as another step towards deeper reconciliation.
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18/04/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Timor-Leste: Reconciliation and Return from Indonesia
The return of thousands of former refugees who fled across the border from Timor-Leste to Indonesia after the 1999 referendum should be encouraged by both governments as another step towards deeper reconciliation.
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10/04/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal’s Fitful Peace Process
The parties to Nepal’s fitful peace process have less than eight weeks to agree on integration of Maoist combatants and federalism before the term of the Constituent Assembly elected to draft a new constitution expires.
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07/04/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Bahrain Revolt
Bahrain’s crackdown and Saudi Arabia’s 14 March military intervention could turn a mass movement for democratic reform into an armed conflict while regionalising a genuinely internal political struggle.
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07/04/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
International Community Must Pull Côte d’Ivoire from the Abyss
Mass killings and extreme violence are unfolding in Abidjan. Côte d’Ivoire’s civil war between forces supporting president elect Alassane Ouattara and those loyal to Laurent Gbagbo has deteriorated into major urban warfare in the commercial capital.
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25/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Risk Alert: Yemen
The political tide in Yemen has turned decisively against President Ali Abdullah Saleh. His choices are limited: he can fight his own military or negotiate a rapid and dignified transfer of power. By choosing the latter path now, he has a chance of ensuring an honourable departure and, most importantly, of sparing his country a brutal and bloody civil war.
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25/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Risk Alert: Syria
Syria is at what is rapidly becoming a defining moment for its leadership. There are only two options. One involves an immediate and inevitably risky political initiative that might convince the Syrian people that the regime is willing to undertake dramatic change. The other entails escalating repression, which has every chance of leading to a bloody and ignominious end.
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25/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Philippines: Back to the Table, Warily, in Mindanao
The success of peace talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) will depend on each side convincing the other that it has the will and capacity to deliver - and both have doubts.
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17/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
North Kosovo: Dual Sovereignty in Practice
The dispute between Kosovo and Serbia, which keeps the Western Balkans divided and insecure, is most acute in Kosovo’s northern municipalities.
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11/03/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
A Ceasefire and Negotiations the Right Way to Resolve the Libya Crisis
A complete ceasefire to be followed by negotiations to secure a transition to a post-Qaddafi, legitimate and representative government should be the immediate objectives of the international community's approach to the Libyan crisis. Military intervention should be viewed as a last resort, with the goal of protecting civilians at risk, and nothing should be allowed to preempt or preclude the urgent search for a political solution.
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22/02/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somalia: The Transitional Government on Life Support
If Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) - incompetent, corrupt and hobbled by weak leadership - does not reform within six months, the international community should withdraw support and concentrate on more effective local administrations.
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22/02/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Immediate International Steps Needed to Stop Atrocities in Libya
With credible reports of concerted deadly attacks against civilians committed by Libyan security forces, including the use of military aircraft to indiscriminately attack demonstrators, the international community must respond immediately.
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15/02/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Communist Insurgency in the Philippines: Tactics and Talks
Peace talks beginning tomorrow in Oslo may be the best hope in years for halting an insurgency that has prevented development in large parts of the Philippines.
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15/02/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Burundi: From Electoral Boycott to Political Impasse
Six months after a string of landslide electoral victories by the ruling Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie et Forces de Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD-FDD), Burundi is descending ever deeper into a political impasse that risks reversing a decade’s progress.
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08/02/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War
Escalating front-line clashes, a spiralling arms race, vitriolic rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks increase the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back to war over Nagorno-Karabakh, with devastating regional consequences.
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04/02/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Crisis Group Statement on the Situation in Egypt
The past several days have brought both hope and fear to Egypt. As Wednesday’s and Thursday’s tragic and wholly unacceptable events illustrate, risks of worse bloodletting continue to mount.
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04/02/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Central Asia: Decay and Decline
Only a concerted effort from national governments, donors and the international community to modernise Central Asia’s infrastructure can avert the region’s decline into chaos.
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28/01/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
China and Inter-Korean Clashes in the Yellow Sea
China is undermining its own security interests by downplaying North Korea’s deadly provocations in the Yellow Sea.
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19/01/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Bosnia: Europe’s Time to Act
The European Union (EU) should make 2011 the year when it finally takes the lead international role in helping Bosnia on its journey from a war-ravaged ward to a stable member state.
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13/01/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal: Identity Politics and Federalism
Federal restructuring of the state has emerged as an important commitment in Nepal’s constitutional process. If the constitution is not promulgated in time or a decision on federalism is deferred, serious unrest could follow.
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01/01/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Next Year's Wars - The 16 brewing conflicts to watch for in 2011.
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31/12/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Next Year's Wars: The 16 brewing conflicts to watch for in 2011
Across the globe today, you'll find almost three dozen raging conflicts, from the valleys of Afghanistan to the jungles of the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the streets of Kashmir. But what are the next crises that might erupt in 2011? Here are a few worrisome spots that make our list.
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23/12/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Dangerous Little Stones: Diamonds in the Central African Republic
Extreme poverty and armed conflict in the diamond-rich areas of the Central African Republic (CAR) put thousands of lives in danger and demand urgent reform of the mining sector.
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05/12/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Lebanon’s Trial by Fire
An intra-Lebanese deal on how to respond to forthcoming indictments by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) is necessary to avoid a breakdown of the country’s precarious balance of power, even as the STL pursues its work.
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02/12/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°88 -
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28/11/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Afghanistan: Exit vs Engagement
U.S. plans to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan by 2014 would lead to a collapse of the government in Kabul and serious security risks for the region.
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27/11/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: “Christianisation” and Intolerance
eligious tolerance in Indonesia has come under increasing strain in recent years, particularly where hardline Islamists and Christian evangelicals compete for the same ground. Islamists use “Christianisation” – a term that generally refers both to Christian efforts to convert Muslims and the alleged growing influence of Christianity in Muslim-majority Indonesia – as a justification for mass mobilisation and vigilante attacks.
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26/11/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Côte d’Ivoire: Finally Escaping the Crisis?
On the eve of the second round of the presidential election, tension between supporters of President Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara continues to increase.
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22/11/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Madagascar: Crisis Heating Up?
While the reality and extent of the coup announced yesterday by military officers is still uncertain, the latest events demonstrate the fragility of the situation in Madagascar and the urgent need for a new strategy to end the long crisis. Negotiations should now focus on international support to the electoral process based on strict conditions.
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22/11/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Risk Alert: Guinea
Guinea’s political and military leaders and the international community must take urgent measures to halt widespread attacks against defenceless civilians and to prevent political tensions from degenerating into large-scale ethnic violence and regional instability.
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22/11/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Congo: New Strategy Needed in the East
The attempt by Congo and Rwanda to end the deadly conflict in eastern Congo by a secret presidential deal and military force is failing and must be changed fundamentally by the Kinshasa government and the international community.
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18/11/2010 | Frente Externo
Reforming Afghanistan’s Broken Judiciary
The Afghan government and the international community must prioritise the rule of law, which should be the primary pillar of a successful counter-insurgency strategy. Reforming Afghanistan’s Broken Judiciary,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, warns of the catastrophic lack of justice in Afghanistan. Judicial institutions have shrunk to near non-existence and many courts are inoperable or understaffed. International Crisis Group urges the Afghan government and the international community to implement reforms that will guarantee the fundamental rights of protection and justice for the Afghani population.
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01/11/2010 | Frente Externo
Haiti: The Stakes of the Post-Quake Elections
Haiti votes in a month’s time – on 28 November 2010 – for a new president and nearly an entire legislature in perhaps the most important elections in its history.
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26/08/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Kosovo and Serbia after the International Court of Justice Opinion
The development of more realistic, if not yet fully public, attitudes in Kosovo and Serbia suggest a win-win resolution of their dispute is feasible if both sides promptly open talks with the aim of reaching a comprehensive compromise.
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26/08/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Kosovo and Serbia after the International Court of Justice Opinion
The development of more realistic, if not yet fully public, attitudes in Kosovo and Serbia suggest a win-win resolution of their dispute is feasible if both sides promptly open talks with the aim of reaching a comprehensive compromise.
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24/08/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Pogroms in Kyrgyzstan
Without prompt, genuine and exhaustive measures to address the damage done by the pogroms, Kyrgyzstan risks another round of terrible violence.
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24/08/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Pogroms in Kyrgyzstan
Without prompt, genuine and exhaustive measures to address the damage done by the pogroms, Kyrgyzstan risks another round of terrible violence.
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06/08/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Drums of War: Israel and the ''Axis of Resistance''
: The Israeli-Lebanese border is exceptionally calm and uniquely dangerous, both for the same reason: fear that a new round of hostilities would be far more violent and could spill over regionally.
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28/06/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Guatemala: Squeezed between Crime and Impunity
Fourteen years after the end of its civil war, Guatemala has become a paradise for crime that is deeply entrenched in the state and society, undermines institutions and thrives on extreme levels of impunity.
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18/06/2010 | Frente Externo
Joint Letter to the UN Security Council Regarding the Ongoing Crisis in Kyrgyzstan
Media Release
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16/06/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Kyrgyz Provisional Government Must Intensify Stabilisation Efforts in South
Suggestions by Kyrgyzstan's Provisional Government yesterday that the situations in Osh and Jalalabad are stabilising, that foreign intervention is thus not needed, and that a referendum scheduled for 27 June can go ahead, are dangerously premature.
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11/06/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
South Ossetia: The Burden of Recognition
All parties involved in the South Ossetia conflict should work to ensure freedom of movement and other basic cooperative mechanisms without status or other political preconditions, so as to reduce the risk of instability and meet basic local needs.
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19/05/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somalia’s Divided Islamists
Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) must engage dissidents among the country’s insurgent groups in order to strengthen its authority and combat al-Qaeda inspired extremists.
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02/05/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Tipping Point? Palestinians and the Search for a New Strategy
After almost two decades of unsuccessful U.S.-sponsored negotiations, Palestinians are re-evaluating their approach to peace.
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02/05/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Kyrgyzstan: A Hollow Regime Collapses
The collapse of the Kyrgyz regime is a case study of the risks facing authoritarianism in Central Asia. What happened in Kyrgyzstan could happen in most of its neighbouring countries. And the consequences could indeed be much worse.
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25/04/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Jihadi Surprise in Aceh
The discovery in late February 2010 of a jihadi training camp in Aceh came as a surprise in three ways. It revealed a major mutation in Indonesian jihadi ranks: a new coalition had emerged that rejected both Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the best-known such organisation in the region, and the more violent splinter group led until his death in September 2009 by Noordin Top. It had chosen Aceh as a base, despite the antipathy of Acehnese to radical Islam.
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04/04/2010 | Sociedad
Haiti: Stabilisation and Reconstruction after the Quake
As a critical strategy conference convenes today at the UN, a Haitian-owned and led process, based on broad consensus among Haitians and with resolute international support, is needed to build the country back better after the devastating earthquake.
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11/03/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Radicalisation and Dialogue in Papua
Indonesia’s easternmost province of Papua saw an upsurge in political violence in 2009, continuing into 2010. One factor was the increased activity of militant activists from the central highlands, many of them members of the West Papua National Committee (Komite Nasional Papua Barat, KNPB).
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02/03/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch: 1 March 2010, No79 - PDF
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18/02/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Iran Nuclear Issue: The View from Beijing
While China resists tougher UN Security Council sanctions on Iran, it is likely to ultimately come on board but will seek to delay and weaken the West’s desired measures.
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20/11/2009 | Frente Externo
Shades of Red: China’s Debate over North Korea
This report of the International Crisis Group examines current Chinese policy towards North Korea in the wake of the latest events, which include missile launches, the withdrawal from the Six-Party Talks and the 25 May nuclear test.
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20/11/2009 | Frente Externo
Shades of Red: China’s Debate over North Korea
This report of the International Crisis Group examines current Chinese policy towards North Korea in the wake of the latest events, which include missile launches, the withdrawal from the Six-Party Talks and the 25 May nuclear test.
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06/11/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Venezuela: Accelerating the Bolivarian Revolution
Against the spirit of the constitution, President Hugo Chávez is accelerating his “Bolivarian Revolution” by implementing radical laws that affect basic rights and liber-ties and thwart the political opposition’s fair chances in the September 2010 legislative elections.
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01/11/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
International Crisis Watch November 1, 2009 - PDF
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27/10/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
After Afghanistan's Fraudulent Elections
Widespread fraud in the 20 August presidential and provincial council polls has deeply undermined the credibility of Hamid Karzai’s government, the main beneficiary of the rigging. Afghanistan faces a critical test in the run-off between President Karzai and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah on 7 November and afterwards. A flawed second round will hand Taliban insurgents a significant strategic victory and erode public confidence in the electoral process and the international commitment to the country’s democratic institutions. Reforming and strengthening state institutions and establishing genuine constitutional governance must be tackled as the top priority if the political rot is to be stemmed and the insurgents denied yet another opportunity to exploit the crisis of legitimacy that is the product of a dysfunctional political order.
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22/10/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan: Countering Militancy in FATA
The military operation in South Waziristan is unlikely to succeed in curbing the spread of religious militancy in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), unless the Pakistan government implements political reforms in that part of the country.
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05/09/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents
Ethiopia's governing coalition must improve democratic practices or risk pre-election violence that could destabilise the region.
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31/08/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Afghanistan: What Now for Refugees?
If the Afghan government wants to prevent further internal violence and regional instability, it must urgently address the needs of the returning refugees and those in neighbouring countries.
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27/08/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Noordin Top’s Support Base
The 17 July 2009 Jakarta hotel bombings have produced calls for a strengthened security apparatus and harsher laws, but the more urgent priority is to understand the terrorists’ local support base and target government programs accordingly.
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15/08/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal’s Future: In Whose Hands?
Nepal's players must rebuild common purpose, bringing the Maoists back into government to prevent possible new conflict. The peace process requires all parties, civil society and the international community to revive a consensus and compromise spirit.
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02/08/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
New CrisisWatch bulletin from the International Crisis Group - August 2009 . PDF
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02/08/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
New CrisisWatch bulletin from the International Crisis Group - August 2009 . PDF
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20/07/2009 | Frente Externo
Israel’s Religious Right and the Question of Settlements
Benjamin Netanyahu is in a bind. Israel is facing arguably unprecedented pressure to halt all settlement activity, led by a new and surprisingly determined U.S. administration. But the prime minister also heads a distinctly right-wing coalition and faces intense domestic pressure from settlers and their allies. However important, what will emerge from current discussions between Washington and Jerusalem will only be step one in a long process designed to achieve a settlement freeze, settlement evacuation and a genuine peace agreement with the Palestinians.
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20/07/2009 | Frente Externo
Israel’s Religious Right and the Question of Settlements
Benjamin Netanyahu is in a bind. Israel is facing arguably unprecedented pressure to halt all settlement activity, led by a new and surprisingly determined U.S. administration. But the prime minister also heads a distinctly right-wing coalition and faces intense domestic pressure from settlers and their allies. However important, what will emerge from current discussions between Washington and Jerusalem will only be step one in a long process designed to achieve a settlement freeze, settlement evacuation and a genuine peace agreement with the Palestinians.
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18/07/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Congo: A Comprehensive Strategy to Disarm the FDLR
The joint Congo (DRC)-Rwanda military push against the Rwandan Hutu rebels has ended with scant results. Fifteen years after the Rwanda genocide and the establishment of those rebels in the eastern Congo, they have not yet been disarmed and remain a source of extreme violence against civilians. While they are militarily too weak to destabilise Rwanda, their 6,000 or more combatants, including a number of génocidaires, still present a major political challenge for consolidation of peace in the Great Lakes region. They must be disarmed and demobilised if the eastern Congo is to be stabilised.
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18/07/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Congo: A Comprehensive Strategy to Disarm the FDLR
The joint Congo (DRC)-Rwanda military push against the Rwandan Hutu rebels has ended with scant results. Fifteen years after the Rwanda genocide and the establishment of those rebels in the eastern Congo, they have not yet been disarmed and remain a source of extreme violence against civilians. While they are militarily too weak to destabilise Rwanda, their 6,000 or more combatants, including a number of génocidaires, still present a major political challenge for consolidation of peace in the Great Lakes region. They must be disarmed and demobilised if the eastern Congo is to be stabilised.
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11/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Haiti 2009 - Stability at Risk
A series of crises in 2008 have increased the potential for serious trouble in Haiti this year. The politically motivated, violent April riots against high living costs caused widespread disruption and suffering, toppled the government of Prime Minister Jacques-Édouard Alexis and forced postponement of a donor conference.
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11/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Haiti 2009 - Stability at Risk
A series of crises in 2008 have increased the potential for serious trouble in Haiti this year. The politically motivated, violent April riots against high living costs caused widespread disruption and suffering, toppled the government of Prime Minister Jacques-Édouard Alexis and forced postponement of a donor conference.
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10/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Bosnia's Incomplete Transition: Between Dayton and Europe
While Bosnia and Herzegovina’s time as an international protectorate is ending, which is in itself most welcome, now is the wrong time to rush the transition. The state put together by the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement after a long war will never be secure and able to take its place in the European Union (EU) until it is responsible for the consequences of its own decisions. But tensions are currently high and stability is deteriorating, as Bosniaks and Serbs play a zero-sum game to upset the Dayton settlement. Progress toward EU membership is stalled, and requirements set in 2008 for ending the protectorate have not been not met.
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10/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Guinea - The Transition Has Only Just Begun
The military junta that took control of the country just hours after President Conté’s death on 23 December 2008 has tightened its grip on power. The self-proclaimed president, Moussa Dadis Camara, and his group of mid-ranking officers calling itself the National Council for Democracy and Development (Conseil national pour la démocratie et le développement, CNDD), have shown few signs of moving towards elections by the end of 2009 as promised. As Guinea’s dire economic prospects erode popular support, the junta, unpracticed in governing, is also in danger of resorting to authoritarian measures. With the risk of a counter-coup from dissatisfied army elements still present, a democratic transition at best faces a long and difficult road. Concerted national and international pressure is urgently needed to produce a return to civilian rule, even before elections if the junta begins to stall on preparations for a vote.
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10/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Bosnia's Incomplete Transition: Between Dayton and Europe
While Bosnia and Herzegovina’s time as an international protectorate is ending, which is in itself most welcome, now is the wrong time to rush the transition. The state put together by the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement after a long war will never be secure and able to take its place in the European Union (EU) until it is responsible for the consequences of its own decisions. But tensions are currently high and stability is deteriorating, as Bosniaks and Serbs play a zero-sum game to upset the Dayton settlement. Progress toward EU membership is stalled, and requirements set in 2008 for ending the protectorate have not been not met.
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10/03/2009 | Frente Externo
Guinea - The Transition Has Only Just Begun
The military junta that took control of the country just hours after President Conté’s death on 23 December 2008 has tightened its grip on power. The self-proclaimed president, Moussa Dadis Camara, and his group of mid-ranking officers calling itself the National Council for Democracy and Development (Conseil national pour la démocratie et le développement, CNDD), have shown few signs of moving towards elections by the end of 2009 as promised. As Guinea’s dire economic prospects erode popular support, the junta, unpracticed in governing, is also in danger of resorting to authoritarian measures. With the risk of a counter-coup from dissatisfied army elements still present, a democratic transition at best faces a long and difficult road. Concerted national and international pressure is urgently needed to produce a return to civilian rule, even before elections if the junta begins to stall on preparations for a vote.
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17/12/2008 | Frente Externo
Palestine Divided
The division between the West Bank and Gaza is set to endure despite the growing number of international actors who acknowledge that without Palestinian unity, a genuine peace process with Israel is unattainable.
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14/12/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Bangladesh: Elections and Beyond
Bangladesh’s 29 December 2008 general election is expected to end a two year military-enforced state of emergency and return the country to democratic governance. While an end to emergency rule and elections do not equal democracy, both are necessary preconditions for the country’s stability.
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02/10/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°62, 1 October 2008 - PDF
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02/10/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°62, 1 October 2008 - PDF
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24/08/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia vs Georgia: The Fallout
The latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the mistakes on all sides that led to war and offers comprehensive recommendations for the belligerent parties and international institutions.
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24/08/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russia vs Georgia: The Fallout
The latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines the mistakes on all sides that led to war and offers comprehensive recommendations for the belligerent parties and international institutions.
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08/08/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Need for an Immediate End to Hostilities in South Ossetia
The current fighting in South Ossetia represents a humanitarian threat to 75,000 civilians in the region and risks a larger regional conflict if it expands to other parts of Georgia including Abkhazia. All sides should immediately cease hostilities in South Ossetia, uphold humanitarian law, protect the civilian population and resume talks to stop an expansion of the conflict.
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08/08/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Need for an Immediate End to Hostilities in South Ossetia
The current fighting in South Ossetia represents a humanitarian threat to 75,000 civilians in the region and risks a larger regional conflict if it expands to other parts of Georgia including Abkhazia. All sides should immediately cease hostilities in South Ossetia, uphold humanitarian law, protect the civilian population and resume talks to stop an expansion of the conflict.
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14/05/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Philippines: Counter-insurgency vs. Counter-terrorism in Mindanao
“The ‘Mindanao model’ of combining military operations with civic action operations against the ASG has been widely heralded as a success, but the gains could be short-lived”, says Kit Collier, a consultant for Crisis Group. “The model involves using counter-insurgency techniques for counter-terrorism goals, but the only way the Philippines will effectively manage domestic terrorism is to secure the cooperation of the MILF and MNLF – and that requires concrete progress toward formal peace agreements.”
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02/04/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal’s Election and Beyond
Nepal’s peace process faces a crucial test this month. Elections for a Constituent Assembly (CA) are likely to go ahead on 10 April 2008 as scheduled but political unrest and violence could mar – or even derail – preparations, and the aftermath could bring turbulence.
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02/04/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Timor-Leste’s Displacement Crisis
If Timor-Leste, which was rocked with violence in 2006 and whose president was seriously shot earlier this year, is to avoid conflict in future, it needs to do more and faster to solve a festering problem that has kept a tenth of its population displaced.
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12/01/2008 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Cyprus: Reversing the Drift to Partition
One more major effort, strongly encouraged by the UN and European Union (EU), should be made in 2008 to resolve the long-running dispute between ethnic Greeks and Turks on Cyprus and achieve a comprehensive settlement to reunify the island. All sides have much to gain from such a settlement.
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19/05/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal’s Maoists: Purists or Pragmatists?
While Nepal’s Maoists have accepted multiparty democracy and have lost their appetite for all-out war, they could still resort to physical confrontation if the peace process stagnates.
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19/05/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal’s Maoists: Purists or Pragmatists?
While Nepal’s Maoists have accepted multiparty democracy and have lost their appetite for all-out war, they could still resort to physical confrontation if the peace process stagnates.
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10/05/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Colombia’s New Armed Groups
Following the demobilisation of the paramilitaries, Colombia is threatened by the rise of new illegal armed groups heavily involved in drugs and other illegal activity.
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10/05/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Colombia’s New Armed Groups
Following the demobilisation of the paramilitaries, Colombia is threatened by the rise of new illegal armed groups heavily involved in drugs and other illegal activity.
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03/05/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Jemaah Islamiyah’s Current Status
Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), South East Asia’s largest jihadi organisation, probably retains more than 900 members across Indonesia at a conservative estimate and remains a major security threat, focused more on local than Western targets.
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03/05/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Indonesia: Jemaah Islamiyah’s Current Status
Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), South East Asia’s largest jihadi organisation, probably retains more than 900 members across Indonesia at a conservative estimate and remains a major security threat, focused more on local than Western targets.
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30/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
After the North Korea Nuclear Breakthrough: Compliance or Confrontation?
Once North Korea shuts down its nuclear reactor, the U.S. and others must follow up with a detailed development assistance plan if the recent breakthrough in the North Korea nuclear talks is to achieve denuclearisation.
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30/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
After the North Korea Nuclear Breakthrough: Compliance or Confrontation?
Once North Korea shuts down its nuclear reactor, the U.S. and others must follow up with a detailed development assistance plan if the recent breakthrough in the North Korea nuclear talks is to achieve denuclearisation.
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02/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan: Discord in the Northern Areas
Unless Pakistan takes steps to provide meaningful autonomy and basic political rights to the Northern Areas of Gilgit and Baltistan, sectarian radicalism will increase.
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01/04/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°44, 1 April 2007
Nine actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in March 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.
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29/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan: Karachi’s Madrasas and Violent Extremism
A network of Pakistani madrasas supporting violent jihadi groups poses a significant threat to domestic, regional and international security.
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16/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Southern Thailand: The Impact of the Coup
Six months after the coup which overthrew Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawata, Thailand still faces a serious security threat in the Muslim South and a real risk of communal violence.
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16/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Islam and Identity in Germany
Germany’s leaders should concentrate on the practical problems that undermine social cohesion – political alienation, over-zealous policing and economic inequality – and avoid the temptation to score domestic political points with hard-line rhetoric about Turkish and other Muslim immigration.
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05/03/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°43, 1 March 2007
Six actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in February 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.
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05/03/2007 | Frente Externo
After Mecca: Engaging Hamas
A Palestinian national unity government provides the international community with an important opportunity for a much-needed change in policy towards the Palestinians. Failure to do so risks provoking greater internal Palestinian strife as well as Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
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28/02/2007 | En Profundidad
Venezuela: Hugo Chávez’s Revolution
Venezuela is at risk of serious internal conflict if President Hugo Chávez continues to polarise society and dismantle the checks and balances of representative democracy after his recent landslide re-election.
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26/02/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal’s Constitutional Process
Nepal’s political leaders must make the constitutional process more inclusive or risk a return to violent conflict.
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26/02/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal’s Constitutional Process
Nepal’s political leaders must make the constitutional process more inclusive or risk a return to violent conflict.
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26/01/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somalia: Now Comes the Tough Part
The international community must vigorously support a national reconciliation process in Somalia if the country is to avoid protracted conflict and the incubation of extremism.
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26/01/2007 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Somalia: Now Comes the Tough Part
The international community must vigorously support a national reconciliation process in Somalia if the country is to avoid protracted conflict and the incubation of extremism.
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08/01/2007 | Frente Externo
Bolivia’s Reforms: The Danger of New Conflicts
Bolivia’s first indigenous president, Evo Morales, will mark his first anniversary in office on 22 January 2007 amid rising civil unrest.
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08/01/2007 | Frente Externo
Bolivia’s Reforms: The Danger of New Conflicts
Bolivia’s first indigenous president, Evo Morales, will mark his first anniversary in office on 22 January 2007 amid rising civil unrest.
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15/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Nepal’s Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Nepal’s comprehensive peace agreement offers the best chance for ending the conflict, but lasting peace still faces many hurdles.
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15/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Nepal’s Peace Agreement: Making it Work
Nepal’s comprehensive peace agreement offers the best chance for ending the conflict, but lasting peace still faces many hurdles.
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11/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Stop Appeasing the Militants
The Musharraf government’s appeasement of Taliban sympathisers has resulted in a base in Pakistan’s tribal areas that militants are using to stoke instability both at home and in neighbouring Afghanistan.
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11/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Myanmar: New Threats to Humanitarian Aid
With growing signs of a humanitarian crisis in-the-making in Myanmar, the international community needs to get beyond debates about the country’s highly repressive political system.
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11/12/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Stop Appeasing the Militants
The Musharraf government’s appeasement of Taliban sympathisers has resulted in a base in Pakistan’s tribal areas that militants are using to stoke instability both at home and in neighbouring Afghanistan.
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11/12/2006 | Frente Externo
Myanmar: New Threats to Humanitarian Aid
With growing signs of a humanitarian crisis in-the-making in Myanmar, the international community needs to get beyond debates about the country’s highly repressive political system.
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28/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka: The Failure of the Peace Process
Although resumed fighting has led to frustration, Sri Lanka needs international engagement more than ever, focusing first on immediate humanitarian concerns and halting serious human rights abuses, but including a longer-term effort to renew a peace process.
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28/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Sri Lanka: The Failure of the Peace Process
Although resumed fighting has led to frustration, Sri Lanka needs international engagement more than ever, focusing first on immediate humanitarian concerns and halting serious human rights abuses, but including a longer-term effort to renew a peace process.
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24/11/2006 | Frente Externo
Georgia’s Armenian and Azeri Minorities
Georgia is a multinational state, building democratic institutions and forging a civic identity. However, it has made little progress towards integrating Armenian and Azeri minorities, who constitute over 12 per cent of the population.
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24/11/2006 | Frente Externo
Georgia’s Armenian and Azeri Minorities
Georgia is a multinational state, building democratic institutions and forging a civic identity. However, it has made little progress towards integrating Armenian and Azeri minorities, who constitute over 12 per cent of the population.
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11/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Kosovo Status: Delay Is Risky
The Kosovo final status process risks breaking down the further the decision is pushed back into 2007.
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08/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Serbia’s New Constitution: Democracy Going Backwards
Serbia is moving away from Western values and European integration, and setting the stage to continue its generation-long role as a source of instability in the Balkans.
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01/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Israel/Hizbollah/Lebanon: Avoiding Renewed Conflict
The international community needs to keep its goals in Lebanon modest lest it renew the conflagration that Security Council Resolution 1701 has put a temporary lid on.
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01/11/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°39, 1 November 2006 - PDF
Thirteen actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in October 2006, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.
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30/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Haiti: Security and the Reintegration of the State
Security remains Haiti’s top challenge, and the new president has only a small window of opportunity to re-establish the state’s authority.
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25/10/2006 | Frente Externo
Nigeria’s Faltering Federal Experiment
Nigeria faces grave risks unless the government addresses the causes underlying the crisis in the country’s failing federalist system.
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20/10/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Tougher Challenges Ahead for Colombia’s Uribe
President Uribe’s second term promises to be more difficult than his first, and unless he broadens his emphasis on a military solution to the conflict and confronts corruption, poverty and human rights violations more effectively, blame for the country’s ills will lie squarely with him.
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11/10/2006 | Frente Externo
Resolving Timor-Leste’s Crisis
The worst period in Timor-Leste’s short independent history is not over but there is general agreement on the elements of a resolution – the problem is getting a dysfunctional government to implement them.
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04/10/2006 | Frente Externo
Global Leaders Call for Action on Arab-Israeli Settlement
135 respected global leaders -- former presidents, prime ministers, foreign and defence ministers, congressional leaders and heads of international organisations -- have today joined in a call for urgent international action to comprehensively resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.
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15/09/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan
The Balochistan insurgency will not recede until Islamabad ends its heavy-handed, armed response to legitimate Baloch grievances and negotiates matters of political and economic autonomy.
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13/09/2006 | Frente Externo
Peace in Northern Uganda?
Peace negotiations between the Ugandan government and the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) have shown surprising promise, but they will need a new two-phase mediation strategy to move beyond the current talks led by the Government of Southern Sudan.
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03/09/2006 | Frente Externo
CrisisWatch N°37, 1 September 2006
Eight actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in August 2006, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. Sri Lanka saw full-scale military clashes in eastern and northern regions kill hundreds and displace some 200,000. Sudan’s Darfur region continued its slide, with the government launching a new offensive and the World Food Programme estimating that 500,000 people are now cut off from emergency food aid. After security forces killed a key Balochistan leader, Pakistan experienced violent protests and province-wide strikes. International tensions over nuclear programs in both Iran and North Korea worsened. The situation also deteriorated in Burundi, Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Russia/Japan) and the Taiwan Strait.
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17/08/2006 | Frente Externo
Moldova’s Uncertain Future
Moldova, which has recently turned away from Moscow and toward the West, will not become a stable part of the European Union’s neighbourhood until its conflict with breakaway Transdniestria is settled, and that is still a long way off despite recent EU and Ukrainian initiatives. While a reunited country remains a realistic long-term goal, the immediate priorities should be increasing Moldova’s political and economic attractiveness and confidence-building measures. Given Russia’s export bans, energy cut-offs and the continued deployment of unwanted troops, the EU must do far more with both incentives and pressures.
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17/08/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Kyrgyzstan’s Prison System Nightmare
While Kyrgyzstan still struggles to find political stability in the wake of its 2005 revolution, deteriorating conditions in its prison system, known by its Russian acronym GUIN, pose a threat to the fragile state’s security and public health. Badly underfunded and forgotten, GUIN has all but lost control over the nearly 16,000 inmates for which it is responsible.
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09/08/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
After North Korea’s Missile Launch: Are the Nuclear Talks Dead?
In the wake of Pyongyang’s provocative missile test and Washington’s hardline negotiating strategy, the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program have been reduced to “dead man walking” status.
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26/07/2006 | Frente Externo
El camino incierto de las reformas en Bolivia
La comunidad internacional, especialmente la Unión Europea, necesita trabajar con la administración del Presidente Evo Morales para ver cómo puede ayudar a Bolivia a alcanzar estabilidad. La elección de Morales en diciembre de 2005 alteró profundamente el paisaje político.
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13/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Palestinians, Israel and the Quartet: Pulling Back From the Brink
The Israeli-Palestinian situation is heading towards catastrophic breakdown, and all players must urgently revise their policies. Palestinians are inching towards civil war, Israelis and Palestinians are perilously close to resuming all-out hostilities, and the international community is depriving the Palestinian Authority of vital assistance.
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06/06/2006 | Frente Externo
Zimbabwe’s Continuing Self-Destruction
With the economy in free fall, the potential end of Robert Mugabe’s presidency looming, and deep cracks dividing both the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), unrest and violence threaten.
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01/06/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Chad: Back towards War?
The internal situation in Chad is deteriorating rapidly, and spill-over from the Darfur crisis is only part of the reason. Sudan’s deliberate use of Chadian warlords in its counter-insurgency strategy in Darfur and as a tool in its attempts to topple President Idriss Déby is just one aspect of Chad’s woes.
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30/05/2006 | Frente Externo
Montenegro’s Referendum
Montenegro’s successful independence referendum should on balance increase stability in the western Balkans. Following the pro-independence victory, Podgorica still faces significant transition challenges, but none should affect regional stability, and all can be resolved as the country moves forward with the Stabilisation and Association process towards European Union membership.
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15/05/2006 | Frente Externo
Afghanistan's New Legislature: Making Democracy Work
The fledgling National Assembly can play a vital role in stabilising Afghanistan and holding President Karzai’s administration accountable but only if it gives voice to the country’s diverse population and gets major help from international actors. Its oft-delayed inauguration in December 2005 completed formation of the country’s main governing bodies but marked more the beginning of a political transition than its end.
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12/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Haiti after the Elections: Challenges for Préval’s First 100 Days
René Préval’s inauguration on 14 May 2006 opens a crucial window of opportunity for Haiti to move beyond political polarisation, crime and economic decline. The 7 February presidential and parliamentary elections succeeded despite logistical problems, missing tally sheets and the after-the-fact reinterpretation of the electoral law.
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12/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Haiti after the Elections: Challenges for Préval’s First 100 Days
René Préval’s inauguration on 14 May 2006 opens a crucial window of opportunity for Haiti to move beyond political polarisation, crime and economic decline. The 7 February presidential and parliamentary elections succeeded despite logistical problems, missing tally sheets and the after-the-fact reinterpretation of the electoral law.
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10/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Nepal: From People Power to Peace?
The defeat of King Gyanendra’s absolute rule marks only the first step in Nepal’s long road to peace. The pro-democracy movement was a victory not only for the mainstream political parties and their tactical alliance with the Maoist insurgents, but above all for the Nepali people themselves.
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02/05/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
CrisisWatch N°33, 1 May 2006
Thirteen conflict situations around the world deteriorated in April 2006, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch, released today. Tensions mounted over Iran’s nuclear program as Tehran defied the UN Security Council’s 28 April deadline to stop enriching uranium.
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25/04/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Political Transition in Mauritania: Assessment and Horizons
The international community must press Mauritania’s leaders who seized power in a coup in August 2005 to respect their promises of democratic transition. The new strong men have made a good start in some ways but some are closely linked to the old regime and may prefer not to redress past injustices. This could fuel political tensions.
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21/04/2006 | En Parrilla
The Gamble of Elections in the Congo
Replacing the logic of guns with the logic of ballot boxes can be dangerous: former fighters may just return to the trenches if they cannot get what they want at the polls.
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21/04/2006 | En Profundidad
Nepal’s Crisis: Mobilising International Influence
Pro-democracy demonstrations and a general strike across Nepal in recent weeks mark a decisive shift in the country’s political equations and probably signal the approaching end of King Gyanendra’s direct rule.
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10/04/2006 | Frente Externo
Central Asia: What Role for the European Union?
The European Union is missing its opportunity to make a positive impact on Central Asia, where despite a surface calm, the potential for instability and conflict is high. EU assistance to the region has largely taken the form of technical assistance, which shows few results for the time and money invested. The EU has to rethink its approach: there should be a move away from failed regional projects and recognition that the five Central Asian states face very different domestic political and economic situations. Technical aid may be appropriate for Kazakhstan, but Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan need more classic development help, particularly in infrastructure and public health. Engagement with the repressive regimes in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is unlikely to yield results, and EU policies should instead focus on facilitating their transition from dictatorship.
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23/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Papua: The Dangers of Shutting Down Dialogue
The Papuan People’s Council, the key institution charged with easing tensions between Papuans and Indonesia’s central government, may be about to collapse, with grave consequences given the region’s current volatility. Created in late October 2005 as the centrepiece of the autonomy deal, the Council was almost immediately confronted with two major crises: stalled talks over the legal status of West Irian Jaya and riots over the giant Freeport mine. If the Council can now manoeuvre its way through the two crises, it may yet be able to take on other outstanding grievances and become what Papua has always lacked, a genuinely representative dialogue partner with Jakarta. If it fails, local resentment against the central government will almost certainly increase. The central government should realise it is in its own interest to help the Council succeed.
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20/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasus: The EU’s Role
The unresolved conflicts in the South Caucasus could ignite into full-fledged wars in Europe’s neighbourhood, so to guarantee its own security, the EU must become more engaged in resolving them. Thus far, others have taken the lead in promoting conflict settlement in the region, but over a decade of negotiations led by the UN in Abkhazia and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Nagorno-Karabakh and South Ossetia have failed to produce peace. With its reputation as an “honest broker”, the EU has a greater role to play, and especially since the 2004 enlargement brought the South Caucasus closer, it has strong incentive to get involved. This is a challenge Brussels has, however, only begun to address.
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17/03/2006 | En Parrilla
To Save Darfur
Without rapidly boosting international forces in the region, the Darfur crisis and the escalating proxy war between Sudan and Chad will cost tens of thousands more lives and destabilise a wide swathe of Africa.
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15/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake
Its response to the October 2005 earthquake calls into question the superior efficiency on which Pakistan’s military government bases its claim to power and its commitment to fighting jihadi extremism.
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15/03/2006 | Frente Externo
Colombia: Towards Peace and Justice?
If the Colombian government does not change its policy on the demobilisation of paramilitaries, it risks prolonging the 40-year armed conflict and damaging democracy. Paramilitary demobilisation is now drawing to a close, but President Alvaro Uribe may be prioritising a quick fix removal of the extreme right-wing group from the conflict at the cost of justice for their victims and at the risk of leaving their criminal power structures largely untouched. While the July 2005 Justice and Peace Law has serious shortcomings that make it difficult to end impunity and establish the truth for grave crimes committed by demobilised individuals and to achieve fully satisfactory reparations for victims, it can be an important vehicle for protecting Colombia’s democracy against dangerous paramilitary and criminal interference. It needs, however, to be revised and implemented effectively.
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15/03/2006 | Frente Externo
France and its Muslims: Riots, Jihadism and Depoliticisation
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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15/03/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Cyprus Stalemate: What Next?
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
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27/02/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Next Iraqi War? Sectarianism and Civil Conflict
The bombing of the al-Askariya shrine in Samara and the subsequent reprisals are but the latest, most serious signs efforts to hold Iraq together verge on collapse. There is still a little time to stop the slide into civil war if Iraqi leaders and the international community act urgently but the winners of the December 2005 elections must not only strongly condemn sectarian-inspired attacks and urge restraint. They must also establish a government of genuine national unity with popular credibility and Sunni Arab leaders in more than token positions; address Iraqis’ top concerns – safety and basic amenities; begin to disband the sectarian militias; and revise the constitution’s provisions on federalism and oil. The U.S., the EU and regional players must push for these crucial steps, or risk Iraq’s disintegration and the Middle East’s destablisation.
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23/02/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Iran: Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse?
European diplomacy has so far not persuaded Iran to drop its uranium enrichment ambitions; the UN Security Council seems unlikely to agree on sanctions strong enough to force it to do so; and preventive military force would be both dangerous and unproductive. Two possible scenarios remain, however, for a negotiated compromise. The more attractive is a “zero enrichment” option, building on Russia’s proposal, under which Iran would indefinitely give up its right to enrich uranium in return for guaranteed offshore nuclear fuel supply. If this option proves unachievable – as seems more likely than not – the only realistic diplomatic alternative is the “delayed limited enrichment” plan detailed in this report.
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17/02/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Kosovo: The Challenge of Transition
To create a stable Kosovo, the international community must dare to impose independence rather than attempt finessing Pristina and Belgrade’s differences with an ambiguous and unstable settlement.
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15/02/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
In Their Own Words: Reading the Iraqi Insurgency
The U.S. and its allies seem to know little about the enemies they are fighting in Iraq, despite volumes of information on insurgent web sites, chat rooms, magazines and videos, which are a large part of their communication with each other and their constituents.
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15/02/2006 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Security Sector Reform in the Congo
Reform of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s security sector must be the top priority for Kinshasa and its international supporters. Rebuilding the national army is far behind schedule, and newly integrated units are often themselves a security hazard.
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04/02/2006 | Frente Externo
Africa Briefing N°36 - Liberia: Staying Focused - PDF
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04/02/2006 | Frente Externo
Asia Report N°112 - China and North Korea: Comrades Forever? - PDF
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18/07/2005 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Counter Terrorism in Somalia: Losing hearts and minds?
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03/07/2005 | Frente Externo
Japan And North Korea: Bones Of Contention - PDF
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30/06/2005 | En Profundidad
Colombia: política presidencial y perspectivas de paz - PDF
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28/06/2005 | En Profundidad
Do Americans Care about Darfur? - PDF
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28/06/2005 | Frente Externo
Colombia: Presidential Politics and Peace Prospects- PDF
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28/06/2005 | Frente Externo
Post-Election Zimbabwe: What Next? - PDF
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19/04/2005 | Frente Externo
The Congo's Transition is Failing: Crisis in the Kivus
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19/04/2005 | Frente Externo
The Congo's Transition is Failing: Crisis in the Kivus
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