30/06/2018 | Frente Externo
US - The Looming Crisis in Trump’s America Is Over Political Legitimacy, Not Dictatorship
The risk for the U.S. is that maximalist posturing will result in political paralysis, creating a failed state rather than a dictatorship.
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02/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Death of bin Laden: Visible vs. Invisible in U.S. National Security
After digesting the news that Osama bin Laden had been killed by a U.S. Navy Seals team, my first thought was about how his death, and the manner in which it happened, highlights the tension between the visible and the invisible in terms of terrorism and counterterrorism.
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02/05/2011 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Death of bin Laden: Visible vs. Invisible in U.S. National Security
After digesting the news that Osama bin Laden had been killed by a U.S. Navy Seals team, my first thought was about how his death, and the manner in which it happened, highlights the tension between the visible and the invisible in terms of terrorism and counterterrorism.
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27/02/2011 | Frente Externo
Twitter Revolution: Social Media as Broadcast Media
The discussion of the impact of social media like Twitter and Facebook on popular uprisings has focused on their role as networking and organizing tools. Their function as broadcast media has been less appreciated.
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11/02/2011 | Frente Externo
Egypt, Suleiman and the Limits of U.S. Hegemony
A thought has been burning a hole in my head over the past few days -- namely, that any meaningful Egyptian transition to democracy will almost certainly involve some form of a truth and reconciliation process.
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27/01/2011 | Frente Externo
Latin America as Strategic Opportunity
I've stayed away from the State of the Union address, and haven't even read the transcript.
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30/07/2010 | En Profundidad
WikiLeaks 'Reveals' the Health of U.S. Democratic Institutions
I haven't had the time to read anything other than second-hand commentary on the WikiLeaks document dump, but as "revelations" go, this one seems to be weak tea. The direct effect on the Afghanistan War will most likely be felt in some of the relationships the U.S. must manage (Pakistan and India, for instance).
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02/07/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Anti-Access and Power Projection
When it comes to military doctrine and strategic thinking, the high-profile debate getting all the attention these days is COIN vs. conventional. But if you want to get a head start on the next big brouhaha, start paying attention to the conversation currently picking up steam around the strategic implications of anti-access and area denial (A2AD) capabilities.
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01/06/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Israel & Gaza Flotilla: First Thoughts
Israel's forceful interdiction of a humanitarian aid flotilla destined for the Gaza Strip has understandably provoked shock and outrage. Part of the shock reflects a global audience's difficulty comprehending how the Israeli government blundered headlong into an obvious and avoidable trap.
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18/02/2010 | Frente Externo
U.S. Nuclear Energy: The French are Coming!!
I've mentioned a number of times the ways in which France's nuclear energy giant, Areva, has benefited from the U.S. opening foreign markets to nuclear energy.
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16/11/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Counterterrorism, Real and Imagined
I've felt for a while that the "safe havens don't matter" argument -- the idea that somehow terrorist networks can't substitute online connectivity for actual physical space -- is the weakest argument against the strategic relevance of the Afghanistan war. For all sorts of reasons having to do with training, esprit de corps and loyalty bonds, actually having a physical place to solidify operational networks is probably essential and definitely advantageous.
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16/11/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Counterterrorism, Real and Imagined
I've felt for a while that the "safe havens don't matter" argument -- the idea that somehow terrorist networks can't substitute online connectivity for actual physical space -- is the weakest argument against the strategic relevance of the Afghanistan war. For all sorts of reasons having to do with training, esprit de corps and loyalty bonds, actually having a physical place to solidify operational networks is probably essential and definitely advantageous.
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17/09/2009 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Training the Afghan Army
Most accounts I've read of the Afghan security forces have made the distinction between the Afghan army, usually described as needing a lot of improvement but competent and on the right track, and the Afghan police, always described as a disastrous combination of incompetence and corruption. That was at least partly reassuring, since the transfer of security operations to indigenous Afghan forces is a major component of both U.S. COIN doctrine and most optimistic assessments of a long-term (read: politically palatable) U.S. nation-building mission in Afghanistan.
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11/09/2009 | En Parrilla
Sarko the Brazilian: Not So Fast!
It looks like the deal for Brazil to buy 36 French Rafale fighter jets might not be as final as Brazilian President Lula da Silva made it out to be.
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