30/09/2022 | Economia y Finanzas
Situation Reports - US Lithium Industry: Thacker Pass
The ongoing struggle to bring Thacker Pass online reflects many of the political and economic imperatives underpinning US efforts to secure and develop its own supply chains, and in doing so catch up to China in the various strategic commodities expected to drive the ‘green’ industrial revolution.
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20/11/2021 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Reports - Backgrounder: China’s Military Modernization Comes of Age
SUMMARY: In November, the US Congress received its annual defense department report outlining military and security developments in China, as mandated by the 2000 National Defense Authorization Act of 2000. The report mainly focuses on the technological aspects of the People Liberation Army’s ongoing expansion and modernization, though areas of engagement and cooperation are also highlighted. However, such examples are few and far between in this most recent iteration, which broadly paints a picture of a military balance that is rapidly shifting toward parity between the two global powers.
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20/02/2020 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Analysis - Idlib Campaign Puts Turkey-Russia Detente on Notice
SUMMARY: Buried beneath headlines of impeachment and the Wuhan coronavirus, events are playing out that could reshuffle the deck of geopolitical alignments surrounding the Syrian civil war.
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15/02/2020 | Economia y Finanzas
Analysis - Wuhan Coronavirus: The Bear Stalks Global Energy Markets?
SUMMARY: The Wuhan coronavirus is shuttering factories and stymieing economic activity in Asia as millions of people stay home either by choice or government order. Clearly the shutdown is most pervasive in China’s Hubei province, where the outbreak originated, and where tens of millions of people will remain at home while many of their fellow citizens return to work on Monday.
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18/12/2019 | Economia y Finanzas
Report - Signs of Infrastructure Spending Boost in China
A new round of infrastructure stimulus would contradict the Chinese government’s official line, which stresses the need for ‘quality growth’ – even if it comes at a slower pace than recent years – rather than any new major stimulus program.
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04/11/2019 | Frente Externo
Situation - Peronists Declare Victory in Argentina’s Back-to-the-Future Elections
SUMMARY: It was an electoral earthquake foretold.With most of the votes counted in Argentina’s presidential elections, Alberto Fernández has 48% to the incumbent Mauricio Macri’s 40%. The outgoing president has already conceded defeat and has pledged to work with the incoming administration in the lead-up to December.
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03/11/2019 | Economia y Finanzas
Situation - US and Australia Move to Break China’s Monopoly, Secure Access to Rare Earth Minerals
SUMMARY :US and Australian policymakers are actively working to head off future supply bottlenecks of rare earth minerals and other key inputs in the high-tech exports of tomorrow.
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24/08/2019 | Economia y Finanzas
Situation Reports: Germany Veers toward Recession in 3Q
SUMMARY: The Bundesbank added to a growing list of negative indicators this week when it warned that Germany would likely enter recession in the third quarter.
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22/02/2019 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The EU Defense Industry: Background
The idea of collective EU defense has been around since the abortive European Defense Community of 1952. Yet over 50 years later, the continent still lacks the shared vision and organizational structures required to turn its oft-cited goal of ‘strategic autonomy’ into a reality. The challenge is compounded by the state of the European defense industry, which is fractured, organized along national lines, riddled with inefficiencies, and largely unable to maintain the extensive manufacturing base necessary to compete with global arms sales giants in the United States and Russia.
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18/01/2019 | Economia y Finanzas
US Debt: Bomb or Overblown?
The latest report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is enough to curdle the blood of any fiscal conservative.
According to the report, US federal debt held by the public relative to GDP currently stands at 78 percent (debt issued in Treasury securities). If current trends hold, that number will reach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade, and 152 percent of GDP by 2048. Broadly speaking, the expansion is being fueled by outlays for Social Security and Medicare and increasingly burdensome interest payments on preexisting debt.
The country’s darkening fiscal outlook is sure to resonate in future elections in the United States, but there’s a crucial international dimension here as well.
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13/12/2018 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Background - The EU Defense Industry
SUMMARY - The idea of collective EU defense has been around since the abortive European Defense Community of 1952. Yet over 50 years later, the continent still lacks the shared vision and organizational structures required to turn its oft-cited goal of ‘strategic autonomy’ into a reality.
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04/12/2018 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Arms Trade: A Global Buyers’ Market
SUMMARY - There’s an antediluvian logic behind the need for an arms industry: these weapons can protect us against our enemies, real or imagined. But there’s an economic imperative as well. The genesis of a new and globally in-demand weapon platform is a job creator throughout its development cycle, from the initial planning and technical know-how, to the weapon’s ultimate manufacture and maintenance. And unlike commercial manufacturing, the defense industry is tightly controlled by the state and non-tradable. It won’t uproot itself in search of greener regulatory pastures overseas, leaving workers and their communities in the lurch.
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30/10/2018 | Economia y Finanzas
Saudis Throw a $6 Billion Lifeline to Pakistan
Fresh off his election win earlier this year, Prime Minister Imran Khan is desperately trying to keep Pakistan’s economy afloat.The country’s foreign reserves are dangerous low at $8 billion, which is enough to pay for just two months of imports. The rupee has also plunged, losing approximately 25% of its value compared to December of last year.
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13/09/2018 | Economia y Finanzas
Situation Reports - Russian Economy Hit by Sanctions, New Rouble Rout
SUMMARY: The Russian rouble briefly hit a two-year low of 69.64 against the US dollar on Friday, before bouncing back to recover 0.5%. Though still far from the post-Crimea low of 82.45, recent declines reveal a vulnerability to new sanctions and the same kind of capital flight that is fueling currency routs in Turkey, India, and Argentina.
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12/09/2018 | Economia y Finanzas
Situation Reports: Will Argentinians Accept More Austerity?
SUMMARY: News out of Argentina has gone from bad to worse. Before Thursday, the Argentine peso was down around 10% against the USD through August, and nearly 40% through 2018. Even then there were questions being asked about whether the $50 billion IMF financing mechanism that had been agreed to would be enough to cover the country’s substantial short-term financing requirements ($82 billion over the next two years).
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17/08/2018 | Economia y Finanzas
Africa - Is Kenya Falling into the China Debt Trap?
Kenya is an important component of China’s overall Africa strategy. The country is home to major Chinese-funded and built infrastructure projects and has thus become a showcase for Beijing’s development and investment initiatives on the continent.
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29/06/2018 | Frente Externo
Mexico - Backgrounder: Mexico Election
SUMMARY: When Mexicans head to the polls on July 1, they’ll be bringing their brooms. The country appears to be the next stop of the populist wave sweeping establishment parties out of power throughout the democratic world.
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22/03/2018 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Interview: Bret Schafer on Putin’s Internet Propaganda Push
Russian state-directed efforts to spread disinformation and influence political debate ahead of the 2016 US presidential elections is now the subject of various government investigations. We sit down with Bret Schafer from the Alliance for Securing Democracy at the German Marshall Fund of the United States to learn more about the rise of targeted ‘fake news’ – or perhaps more appropriately: ‘fake polemic’ – and discuss what’s being done to insulate Western democracies from its effects.
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30/11/2017 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Sinai Insurgency
This timeline traces the progression of militant attacks on state targets in the Sinai Peninsula. These include attacks on police officers, soldiers, judges, and other personnel connected to the Egyptian state. Attacks on civilians have been omitted.
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13/09/2017 | Frente Externo
Kurdish Independence: The Next Phase of the Iraq Civil War?
...The opportunity for Kurdish independence comes down to Kurdistan’s negotiating leverage vis-à-vis the central government. It’s not a coincidence that the referendum announcement came in June, just as the battle of Mosul was winding down and the war against Islamic State was all but won...
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02/04/2017 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
Russian Hacking and the Baltic States
The recent furor over Russian hacking and other interference in the US presidential elections continues to rumble on months into the Trump administration. But the charges now appearing in US media outlets sound very familiar to a group of countries situated on one of the frontlines of the new Cold War: the Baltics. Located on the edges of the Russian Federation, the tiny Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are regarded by the Kremlin as rightfully belonging inside Moscow’s sphere of influence. Since breaking away from the disintegrating Soviet Union in the early 1990s however, the three countries have plotted their own course toward the West. All three joined the European Union (EU) in 2004, and all are frontline members NATO. This has put them squarely in the crosshairs of frequent Russian disinformation and hacking campaigns.
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19/03/2017 | En Parrilla
Forecast Calls for ‘Sunshine’ on the Korean Peninsula
The bombshell disclosures, mass protests, and obstinacy from the president to the very end – the epic downfall of Park Geun-hye will reverberate in South Korea for years to come. Yet the consequences won’t be limited to the domestic sphere. The president’s removal comes at a delicate time for the alliances and interests that underpin East Asian security. If President Trump’s rhetoric doused the US alliance system in gasoline; Park’s downfall could just be the spark that ignites it.
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06/01/2017 | Frente Externo
Interview: Dr. Parag Khanna on How to Fix the US Political System
Geopoliticalmonitor.com sits down with Dr. Parag Khanna, international relations expert and best-selling author of Technocracy in America.
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28/09/2016 | Economia y Finanzas
Flash: BIS Sounds the Alarm on China Banking System
The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has sounded the alarm about excessive debt in the Chinese financial system. According to the BIS – an international banking watchdog – China’s credit-to-GDP gap has now reached 30.1. The next highest country on the list is Canada with 12.1.
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25/09/2016 | Frente Externo
Interview: ECFR's Mark Leonard on Brexit and the Future of the EU
Geopoliticalmonitor.com sits down with Mark Leonard to discuss the repercussions of the Brexit. Mr. Leonard is the Director of the European Council of Foreign Relations.
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04/02/2016 | Frente Externo
Interview: Gabriele Quattrochi on the EU Migrant Crisis
Geopoliticalmonitor sits down with Gabriele Quattrocchi, the Vice Director of Mediterranean Affairs, to discuss the ongoing migrant crisis in Europe.
Mediterranean Affairs is a center for studies whose main goal is to provide analyses, reports, and dossiers on various issues of international policy, security, economic and social challenges concerning the Mediterranean area.
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23/03/2015 | Economia y Finanzas
Analysis: How Low Can the Canadian Dollar Go?
The Canadian dollar, or “loonie” as it’s called, has had a difficult time of late. Throughout 2011 it flirted with parity with its US peer, even closing at 1.059 USD on July 26 of that year. More recently it has traded down from parity but still strong, closing at 0.94 USD on July 1, 2014. But the past eight months have seen the loonie plummet in value. It closed at 0.7955 USD yesterday after surging 0.128 USD following Chair Yellen’s dovish statement on the pace of upcoming US interest rate hikes.
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07/01/2015 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
GPM Outlook 2015: US-Iran Relations
Of all the possible forecasts for the upcoming year, here is perhaps the easiest for pundits to make: 2015 is ‘do or die’ time for the cautious rapprochement currently unfolding between Iran and the United States. There are two reasons for this.
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10/12/2010 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The Resource Wars of Tomorrow
Of the many resources that could potentially lead to inter-state conflict in the future, oil & gas ranks highest on the list of importance. The reason is simple: supplies are scarce and energy resources are fundamental for essentially every economic activity that drives GDP growth.
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30/11/1999 | Inteligencia y Seguridad
The EU Defense Industry: Background
The idea of collective EU defense has been around since the abortive European Defense Community of 1952. Yet over 50 years later, the continent still lacks the shared vision and organizational structures required to turn its oft-cited goal of ‘strategic autonomy’ into a reality. The challenge is compounded by the state of the European defense industry, which is fractured, organized along national lines, riddled with inefficiencies, and largely unable to maintain the extensive manufacturing base necessary to compete with global arms sales giants in the United States and Russia.
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