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13/05/2008 | Lebanon Nearing Civil War Following Weekend of Violence

Global Insight Staff

From a position of weakness the Lebanese government last week dismantled Hizbollah’s telecommunications network and sacked a pro-Hizbollah army chief charged with airport security, setting the stage for a bloody showdown which has so far left over 50 people dead.

 

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

The Lebanese Shi’a group Hizbollah assumed control of West Beirut, forcing the closure of a pro-government television channel owned by the Hariri family.

Implications

The fighting has spread to other parts of Lebanon, with the northern city of Tripoli, a stronghold of the Hariri family, hit by a wave of violence that has pitted Sunni against Shi’a, as the unrest assumes a worryingly sectarian character.

Outlook

Weak and divided, Lebanon has once again become easy prey to regional powers with their own axes to grind. The region’s latent sectarian discord, fuelled by the Iraq conflict, risks engulfing the tiny Arab state and opening a new theatre conflict in an already-turbulent area.

Battle of Wills

Already weakened from the mass defections of pro-Hizbollah ministers and political assassinations the Lebanese government last week took an enormous gamble, announcing the dismantlement of the Shi’a group’s prized telecommunications network and sacking a Hizbollah army chief in charge of army security. The Hizbollah officer was accused of supplying sensitive intelligence to the group, which is suspected of colluding with its Syrian allies in a spate of political murders which have plagued Lebanon since 2005. Hizbollah’s telecommunications network, which is part of its much broader infrastructure portfolio, is representative of two separate and conflicting powers in Lebanon, with the Shi’a group, which is backed by Iran and Syria, vying for influence with a central government which commands the political and financial support of Sunni powers and international heavyweights.

Hizbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, whose stature was boosted by the movement’s ability to resist Israel during the 2006 war, called the government’s bluff, dispatching his militia to Muslim West Beirut and closing down the offices of the Mostaqbal (Future) TV channel, owned by the Hariri family, and considered a mouthpiece of the government. Future TV was a particular gripe of Hizbollah, with its supporters denouncing the channel as a western ploy to sow disharmony in Lebanon. The Lebanese army, whose reputation as a bastion of neutrality and national unity, has been sullied by its gradual involvement in the country’s political saga, proved powerless in the face of Hizbollah’s advance. Relations between the army and Hizbollah soured after soldiers fired on Hizbollah supporters during clashes earlier this year; the incident also dealt a blow to the presidential aspirations of army chief Michel Suleiman. Since November 2007, when former president Emile Lahoud, a staunch ally of Syria (and whose presidential mandate was extended under Syrian duress) left office, Lebanon has been without a president. The Lebanese parliament has also failed to convene, with the machinery of government grinding to a halt under the weight of political infighting and factional and sectarian polarisation.

Although the latest crisis largely pits the Sunni supporters of the Hariri clan against the Shi’a backers of Hizbollah, Lebanon’s myriad sects and factions further complicate the picture. The fighting has already spread to the Chouf Mountains, a stronghold of Druze leader Walid Joumblatt, who is an ally of the government and whose outspoken criticism of Hizbollah makes him an obvious target. Joumblatt’s Druze militia is no match for Hizbollah, with the Druze chieftain calling for a truce in a bid to avoid an inevitable bloodbath. Additionally, the Christian Maronite community are themselves bitterly divided between Aounists (backers of General Michel Aoun) who have forged a pragmatic partnership with Hizbollah and supporters of the Gamayel clan who are aligned with the central government.

A Region Divided

The Arab League, whose gambit for resolving the crisis in Lebanon proposes the election of Suleiman as president; the creation of a national unity government and the drafting of a new electoral law, has fallen by the way-side; the league called for an emergency foreign ministers meeting. Saudi Arabia—which views Hizbollah as an instrument of Iran’s bid for regional predominance—has been dismayed by developments in Lebanon, although the memorandum issued by the league fell short of directly criticising the group. Meanwhile, Syria refused to attend the meeting, underlining the schism in the Arab world on the issue of Lebanon. The United States meanwhile refused to mince its words, slamming Hizbollah’s “aggression” and saying that its support for the government of Prime Minister Fuad Seniora would remain “unwavering”.

Outlook and Implications.

With over 50 people dead, the struggle for Lebanon’s national identity has entered a new and potentially devastating phase. The question that is being raised is whether Hizbollah has overplayed its hand; the movment whose reputation and legitimacy is born out of its resistance to Israel has now directed a salvo at the Lebanese government. Hizbollah’s leap has angered many who remember the bitter taste of Lebanon’s sectarian past. Where this latest crisis will go is difficult to tell, however, what is clear is that a resolution of Lebanon’s political crisis—which will need a thorough re-evaluation of the country’s political and constitutional make-up—requires more than a customary meeting by the Arab League. Rather, Lebanon’s neighbours, who have mastered the art of manipulating the country’s internal divisions, are culpable in Lebanon’s latest descent into civil war; they too will pay the price if Lebanon’s foray into sectarian conflict continues unchecked.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


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