Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
  En Parrilla Medio Ambiente Sociedad High Tech Contacto
Inteligencia y Seguridad  
 
20/09/2008 | Iranian Diplomacy in the Caucasus

Stratfor Staff

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Wednesday visited Georgia, where he met with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. During the visit, Mottaki told the Georgian leader that Tehran was closely observing the ongoing events in the Caucasus and that his country wants stability and security in the region restored.

 

The Iranian foreign minister also said that his government was in the process of offering solutions to various regional actors in the hopes of normalizing the regional situation.

Mottaki’s visit to Tbilisi comes a day after a meeting with his Armenian counterpart in Tehran and two days after talks with his German counterpart in Berlin. On Sept. 13, Mottaki held talks with Russian leaders in Moscow and then flew to Azerbaijan to confer with officials in Baku. This flurry of diplomatic activity on the part of the Iranians underscores Tehran’s deep interests in the Caucasus.

After seeing Turkey’s moves in the region in the wake of the Georgian crisis, the Iranians do not want to be left out of the game. The Iranian ethnic, religious, linguistic and cultural ties to the Caucasus go back centuries — long before the Ottomans took control of the Caucasus, Persian empires ruled major parts of the area.

We have talked about how a resurgent Russia presents Iran with an opening to extract concessions from the United States in Iraq and on the nuclear issue. In this regard, Tehran’s calculus is that a Washington wanting to counter a revived Kremlin would be eager to reach a settlement on Iraq to free itself for dealings with Moscow.

Iran’s cautious behavior toward Russia, however, suggests that Tehran is not ready to jump on the Russian bandwagon. There are three key reasons for this.

First, in order for Iran to reach its goals in terms of Iraq, the nuclear issue, and its own international rehabilitation, it needs to work with the United States. From the Iranian point of view, Russia is a means to an end and not a substitute for the United States.

Second, in the past Russia has used Iran for its own strategic purposes. Tehran is quite disappointed that Moscow has not followed through on any of its promises — whether with regard to security guarantees, weapons sales or even the failure to complete Iran’s first nuclear power plant (for which the Iranians have already paid).

Third, and most important, is that a Russia imposing itself on the Caucasus poses a long-term security threat to Iran’s northern borders. After all, it was not too long ago that the Soviet Union under Stalin invaded Iran. Hence, Iranian moves toward regional diplomacy are largely designed to ensure that a Russian resurgence can be kept at tolerable levels.

But the Turks have the lead in this arena, which raises the question of what the Iranians hope to gain from their attempts to play a role in the Caucasus. The best option for Iran would be to cooperate with Turkey toward the common goal of containing Russia. There is also the additional potential benefit of connecting with the United States via the Turks in the process, not to mention the potential energy links Iran could build to connect to Europe through the Turks.

There are, however, a number of obstacles that prevent Turkish-Iranian cooperation from materializing. To start, Iran would not want to irk Russia at a time when Tehran is still not getting a deal from the United States. The Turks are in a much more comfortable position to risk angering the Russians but the Iranians do not have that luxury. Ankara is the world’s 18th-largest economy and a member of NATO, while Iran has very few friends and is reeling from economic sanctions.

Another reason why Tehran cannot play much of a role in the Caucasus is that its only anchor in the region is Armenia, and that is a relationship of expediency. While the Turks and the Azerbaijanis are moving toward a rapprochement with the Armenians, it is unlikely that they will want to allow Iran — a historical competitor for regional influence (especially for the Turks) — to establish a foothold in the region. Essentially, Iran faces sufficient arrestors blocking its path to becoming a regional player in the Caucasus, which is not unlike the situation that it faces in the Middle East where wealthy Sunni Arab states are reining in its regional ambitions.

Regardless of the role it will or will not play in the Caucasus, Iranian moves in the region highlight a very critical element in Iranian foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia. The Islamic republic is not prepared to align with Russia in Moscow’s efforts to reassert itself on the global scene. This is a critical weakness that the United States can exploit to its advantage in countering both Iranian and Russian moves.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 1 to 10 of 898 )
fecha titulo
19/01/2014 U.S.-Iran: Two Countries in the Iron Grip of Conservatives
16/01/2014 Iran is losing the battle of modern culture
21/12/2013 Iran’s hard-liners resist nuclear deal
08/12/2013 Time to Let Iran Prove Itself
26/11/2013 Obama se queda solo en la defensa del acuerdo con Irán
25/11/2013 Los puntos principales del acuerdo entre Irán y el Grupo 5+1
25/11/2013 Curbing Iran's nuclear programme - Modest, but still historic
09/11/2013 Cambio esperanzador
09/11/2013 Netanyahu denuncia que Irán va a lograr 'el acuerdo del siglo'
19/10/2013 China and Iran: Destined to Clash?


Otras Notas del Autor
fecha
Título
18/11/2016|
17/04/2016|
27/03/2016|
12/02/2016|
25/10/2013|
29/09/2013|
12/09/2013|
08/09/2013|
06/09/2013|
26/08/2013|
20/08/2013|
20/08/2013|
07/08/2013|
06/08/2013|
31/07/2013|
20/07/2013|
16/07/2013|
03/07/2013|
02/07/2013|
02/07/2013|
01/07/2013|
01/07/2013|
01/07/2013|
05/06/2013|
27/05/2013|
27/05/2013|
27/05/2013|
02/05/2013|
30/04/2013|
19/04/2013|
17/04/2013|
04/03/2013|
01/03/2013|
18/01/2013|
16/11/2012|
16/11/2012|
15/11/2012|
03/08/2011|
03/08/2011|
29/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
14/07/2011|
14/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
06/07/2011|
06/07/2011|
07/06/2011|
07/06/2011|
20/05/2011|
20/05/2011|
02/05/2011|
02/05/2011|
19/03/2011|
17/03/2011|
14/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
03/03/2011|
22/02/2011|
21/02/2011|
12/02/2011|
01/02/2011|
30/01/2011|
29/01/2011|
28/01/2011|
19/01/2011|
07/01/2011|
29/12/2010|
17/12/2010|
16/12/2010|
10/12/2010|
24/11/2010|
23/11/2010|
15/04/2010|
15/04/2010|
03/04/2009|
31/03/2009|
31/03/2009|
30/03/2009|
30/03/2009|
28/03/2009|
28/03/2009|
26/03/2009|
25/03/2009|
25/03/2009|
23/03/2009|
23/03/2009|
20/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
14/03/2009|
14/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
11/03/2009|
11/03/2009|
10/03/2009|
10/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
28/02/2009|
28/02/2009|
28/02/2009|
28/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
31/01/2009|
31/01/2009|
31/01/2009|
23/01/2009|
23/01/2009|
18/01/2009|
13/01/2009|
05/01/2009|
02/01/2009|
25/12/2008|
25/12/2008|
24/12/2008|
24/12/2008|
19/12/2008|
14/12/2008|
14/12/2008|
13/12/2008|
13/12/2008|
07/12/2008|
07/12/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
26/11/2008|
26/11/2008|
25/10/2008|
25/10/2008|
22/10/2008|
22/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
11/10/2008|
11/10/2008|
08/10/2008|
08/10/2008|
20/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
08/08/2008|
08/08/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
12/05/2008|
17/04/2008|
17/04/2008|
25/03/2008|
24/03/2008|
24/03/2008|
18/03/2008|
18/03/2008|
10/03/2008|
07/03/2008|
22/02/2008|
22/02/2008|
22/02/2008|
18/02/2008|
18/02/2008|
18/02/2008|
16/02/2008|
13/02/2008|
12/02/2008|
09/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
30/12/2007|
30/12/2007|
30/12/2007|
27/12/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
11/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
30/10/2007|
04/10/2007|
28/09/2007|
16/09/2007|
16/09/2007|
08/09/2007|
06/09/2007|
30/08/2007|
26/08/2007|
22/08/2007|
22/08/2007|
22/08/2007|
21/08/2007|
11/08/2007|
08/08/2007|
14/07/2007|
02/05/2007|
02/05/2007|
20/04/2007|
20/04/2007|
20/04/2007|
20/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
13/04/2007|
13/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
04/04/2007|
04/04/2007|
31/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
28/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
15/03/2007|
15/03/2007|
15/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
01/03/2007|
28/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
02/02/2007|
02/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
31/01/2007|
31/01/2007|
25/01/2007|
25/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
10/01/2007|
10/01/2007|
03/01/2007|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
29/11/2006|
29/11/2006|
29/11/2006|
29/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
18/11/2006|
18/11/2006|
17/11/2006|
16/11/2006|
14/11/2006|
13/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
08/11/2006|
07/11/2006|
07/11/2006|
04/11/2006|
04/11/2006|
01/11/2006|
31/10/2006|
31/10/2006|
31/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
21/10/2006|
21/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
07/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
29/09/2006|
28/09/2006|
27/09/2006|
27/09/2006|
27/09/2006|
24/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
30/08/2006|
30/08/2006|
27/08/2006|
02/08/2006|
02/08/2006|
30/07/2006|
30/07/2006|
28/07/2006|
28/07/2006|
23/07/2006|
19/07/2006|
15/07/2006|
14/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
26/06/2006|
26/06/2006|
24/06/2006|
24/06/2006|
22/06/2006|
22/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
05/06/2006|
04/06/2006|
03/06/2006|
02/06/2006|
02/06/2006|
01/06/2006|
01/06/2006|
31/05/2006|
29/05/2006|
28/05/2006|
23/05/2006|
17/05/2006|
17/05/2006|
13/05/2006|
07/05/2006|
07/05/2006|
06/05/2006|
06/05/2006|
04/05/2006|
02/05/2006|
02/05/2006|
30/04/2006|
25/04/2006|
24/04/2006|
24/04/2006|
23/04/2006|
23/04/2006|
21/04/2006|
21/04/2006|
21/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
17/04/2006|
13/04/2006|
13/04/2006|
10/04/2006|
08/04/2006|
06/04/2006|
06/04/2006|
05/04/2006|
30/03/2006|
28/03/2006|
28/03/2006|
27/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
22/03/2006|
22/03/2006|
20/02/2006|
20/02/2006|
18/02/2006|
11/02/2006|
11/02/2006|
11/02/2006|
07/02/2006|
26/01/2006|
25/01/2006|
22/01/2006|
19/01/2006|
19/01/2006|
14/01/2006|
14/01/2006|
12/01/2006|
12/01/2006|
06/01/2006|
20/12/2005|
01/08/2005|
06/01/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House