Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
  En Parrilla Medio Ambiente Sociedad High Tech Contacto
Economia y Finanzas  
 
24/09/2008 | Key U.K. Economic Releases for the Week Commencing 22 September

Howard Archer

The coming week is unusually quiet on the economic indicators front, which is a relief, as they have tended to bring depressing news for some time now. However, the economic indicators that are out over the coming week are unlikely to raise spirits, as they are expected to show that consumers are retrenching and house prices are continuing to fall markedly.

 

We expect the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) distributive trades survey for September  (out Tuesday) to reinforce the belief that consumer spending is now faltering markedly despite the surprising 1.2% month-on-month increase in retail sales in August recently reported by the Office for National Statistics. The ONS data contrasted markedly with the survey evidence for August from both the British Retail Consortium and the CBI, as well as the news coming from most retailers. In addition, the latest Bank of England regional agents report indicated that in August "consumption growth eased reflecting weaker retail sales and consumer services."

We forecast the CBI's September distributive trades survey to show that the balance of retailers reporting that sales were up year-on-year stood at an extremely weak -45%. This would be little changed from -46% in August, which was the lowest since the series began in 1993 and down from -36% in July and -9% in June. To put this into perspective, the long-term average for the balance is +18%.

Consumers are being battered by major headwinds. These include increasingly rising unemployment, muted disposable income growth, a serious squeeze on purchasing power coming from sharply rising utility bills and elevated food prices, tight credit conditions, higher mortgage repayments for many householders as a result of the credit crunch, sharply falling house prices, lower equity prices, and higher debt levels. Furthermore, major consumer concerns over the economic outlook call for increased caution over spending levels. The current heightened financial sector turmoil is likely to depress spending more through hitting already very weak consumer confidence, further tightening credit conditions and depressing equity prices.

Mortgage lending and approvals data for August from the British Bankers' Association (BBA) on Thursday are expected to provide ongoing evidence that housing market activity is being throttled by the combination of stretched buyer affordability and tight lending practices. Widespread expectations that house prices will continue to fall markedly for some considerable time to come is also significantly limiting housing market activity, as is heightened concern over the economic outlook and job prospects. Additionally, the current financial sector turmoil is likely to deepen the pressure on housing market activity through further tightening credit conditions and exerting upward pressure on market interest rates.

The latest data from the BBA show that mortgage approvals for house purchases were limited to just 22,448 in July. This was only marginally up on June's record low of 22,369 (the series started in 1997) and down a massive 65.0% year-on-year from 64,184 in July 2007. Meanwhile, mortgage lending amounted to a very modest £4.3 billion in July.

As a consequence of very weak housing market activity, stretched affordability, and very tight lending conditions, the Nationwide lender is expected to report a further marked decline in house prices in September. Specifically, we forecast the Nationwide data to show that house prices fell by 1.5% month-on-month in September, which would be the 11th successive decline. This would bring the year-on-year decline in house prices to 12.4% in September, which would be the largest annual fall in house prices since Nationwide started producing monthly data in January 1991.

Global Insight forecasts house prices to fall by 15% overall in 2008 and by a further 12% in 2009. As a result, house prices are seen falling 27% in nominal terms from their October 2007 peak of £186,044 on the Nationwide measure to stand at £136,196 at the end of 2009. Reduced declines in house prices are expected in the first half of 2010, taking them down to a low of £129,386, which would be 30% below their August 1999 peak. House prices are then seen flattening out in the latter months of 2010. Furthermore, the downside risks to these forecasts are currently mounting, given the heightened financial sector turmoil, the deepening economic downturn, and markedly rising unemployment.

24 Sep: CBI Distributive Trades Reported Volume of Sales, September: -45%

During week: Nationwide House Prices, September (Month-on-Month): -1.5%

During week: Nationwide House Prices, September (Year-on-Year): -12.4%

 

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



Otras Notas del Autor
fecha
Título
24/11/2012|
09/09/2012|
29/07/2012|
29/07/2012|
29/07/2012|
29/07/2012|
22/07/2012|
14/07/2012|
08/07/2012|
01/07/2012|
24/06/2012|
10/06/2012|
27/05/2012|
20/05/2012|
13/05/2012|
06/05/2012|
29/04/2012|
21/04/2012|
24/03/2012|
18/03/2012|
18/03/2012|
11/03/2012|
11/03/2012|
04/03/2012|
04/03/2012|
26/02/2012|
26/02/2012|
26/02/2012|
23/10/2011|
15/10/2011|
02/10/2011|
25/09/2011|
31/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
10/07/2011|
10/07/2011|
03/07/2011|
03/07/2011|
19/06/2011|
19/06/2011|
05/06/2011|
05/06/2011|
29/05/2011|
29/05/2011|
22/05/2011|
22/05/2011|
15/05/2011|
15/05/2011|
08/05/2011|
08/05/2011|
11/04/2011|
26/03/2011|
20/03/2011|
26/02/2011|
19/02/2011|
12/02/2011|
29/01/2011|
22/01/2011|
15/01/2011|
01/01/2011|
25/12/2010|
18/12/2010|
11/12/2010|
20/11/2010|
14/11/2010|
05/11/2010|
31/10/2010|
23/10/2010|
09/10/2010|
03/10/2010|
18/09/2010|
11/09/2010|
11/09/2010|
11/09/2010|
04/09/2010|
04/09/2010|
06/08/2010|
30/07/2010|
24/07/2010|
17/07/2010|
10/07/2010|
03/07/2010|
20/06/2010|
19/06/2010|
13/06/2010|
05/06/2010|
29/05/2010|
22/05/2010|
16/05/2010|
01/05/2010|
25/04/2010|
10/04/2010|
03/04/2010|
28/03/2010|
12/02/2010|
05/02/2010|
23/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
08/01/2010|
19/12/2009|
11/12/2009|
11/12/2009|
05/12/2009|
05/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
13/11/2009|
13/11/2009|
07/11/2009|
31/10/2009|
17/10/2009|
09/10/2009|
03/10/2009|
19/09/2009|
12/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
07/08/2009|
07/08/2009|
01/08/2009|
01/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
28/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
28/02/2009|
28/02/2009|
18/01/2009|
02/01/2009|
06/04/2008|
06/04/2006|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House