Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
  En Parrilla Medio Ambiente Sociedad High Tech Contacto
En Parrilla  
 
23/01/2009 | For China, Grim Data and a Grimmer Economy

Stratfor Staff

China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday released preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) figures for 2008. According to the report, the country’s economy expanded by 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to the same quarter a year earlier.

 

This marks a further drop from the 10.6 percent growth year-on-year in the first quarter, 10.1 percent in the second quarter and 9.0 percent in the third quarter. For the whole of 2008, China’s GDP grew just 9 percent — marking the first time annual growth has fallen into the single digits since 2003, and the lowest annual GDP figure since 2001. Moreover, China’s 2007 GDP growth rate was recently revised to 13 percent, the highest in more than a decade.

China needs high growth rates much more than other countries do. The legitimacy of the government is derived primarily from its ability to stimulate and maintain economic growth, which in China is synonymous with employment. Should that fail, the Chinese people tend to take issue with their leaders, as evidenced by the repetition of social revolutions in Chinese history.

Many Chinese policymakers use 8 percent GDP growth as a rule-of-thumb measure for basic stability — the level needed to absorb the roughly 2 million new workers who enter the labor pool every year. Chinese leaders believe this is the level of growth needed to keep social pressures from exploding. So long as everyone has a job, Beijing does not worry overmuch about details like financial efficiency, profitability or transparency.

The same goes for accuracy, and Stratfor tends not to trust Chinese statistics. The regional data that local officials generate is not particularly reliable; stories abound about instances of padding data to make local statistics more impressive. This flawed data is then fed into the national statistics.

Chinese leaders in the late 1990s — particularly then-Premier Zhu Rongji — recognized that China’s economic statistics collection methods were fundamentally flawed. Leaders did not have a true picture of the Chinese economy, leaving them unable to manage growth and economic stability effectively. An effort began in 2000 to use statistical methods recommended by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development — but even with a good-faith effort, getting everything straightened out in less than a decade would be (and has proven) nearly impossible.

The Chinese economy is rapidly evolving from an overpopulated, agrarian subsistence economy to a hybridized industrial economy complete with large populations of roving migrants. The type of data that needs to be collected amid such a transformation changes more rapidly than new collection systems can be developed. In such an environment, collecting the right types of information accurately is, at best, a Herculean task, and each change in the process results in massive adjustments to previous estimates.

The severe downturn in the Chinese growth rates — admitted by a country known for massaging numbers — suggests things may be far worse than the headline 6.8 percent figure. Indeed, Stratfor sources peppered throughout China’s electronics, textiles, retail, energy, aviation and manufacturing sectors are painting a sobering picture. Exports to established markets are failing, foreign investors are desperate to find non-Chinese alternatives, protests by unemployed and underemployed workers are being reported by the state-controlled media. In general, the country is under severe stress from top to bottom.

The last time major contractions in China’s growth came in 2001 and 2003, and in those cases, Beijing simply reverted to its tried-and-true methods of subsidization of exports and a focus on gross revenues over profits. In recent years, the Chinese leadership has sought to reshape at least parts of the economic structure — using high growth rates as a way to compensate for the social and financial impact of industrial consolidation, increased labor costs and an attempt to push its exports up the value chain — while also seeking to boost domestic consumption as a component of economic activity.

But with the global economic downturn, China is losing export markets. It is holding onto significantly devalued stockpiles of primary commodities and primary products (such as steel) that were bought and manufactured during a commodity boom. It is slowing imports from regional partners — whose resulting drop in revenues will in return dry up much of China’s incoming foreign investment, another key component of economic growth and job formation.

China’s leadership is facing compounding problems and scrambling — desperately — for solutions. Compared to previous crises, they are off the map.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 1 to 10 of 1633 )
fecha titulo
04/07/2014 With General’s Purge Chinese Leader Consolidates Power
15/06/2014 China’s Interest in Central and Eastern Europe
02/06/2014 Enfoque: La estrategia y la seguridad alimentaria China
05/05/2014 Hacia el imperio de China
02/05/2014 Máxima alerta en China tras un atentado con tres muertos y 79 heridos en Xinjiang
03/02/2014 China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military
25/01/2014 The Limits of China’s Globalization Strategy
23/01/2014 Champán e impunidad para la privilegiada 'nobleza roja'
08/01/2014 Chinese dam builders rush to Latin America
07/01/2014 Blue Means Blue: China's Naval Ambitions


Otras Notas del Autor
fecha
Título
18/11/2016|
17/04/2016|
27/03/2016|
12/02/2016|
25/10/2013|
29/09/2013|
12/09/2013|
08/09/2013|
06/09/2013|
26/08/2013|
20/08/2013|
20/08/2013|
07/08/2013|
06/08/2013|
31/07/2013|
20/07/2013|
16/07/2013|
03/07/2013|
02/07/2013|
02/07/2013|
01/07/2013|
01/07/2013|
01/07/2013|
05/06/2013|
27/05/2013|
27/05/2013|
27/05/2013|
02/05/2013|
30/04/2013|
19/04/2013|
17/04/2013|
04/03/2013|
01/03/2013|
18/01/2013|
16/11/2012|
16/11/2012|
15/11/2012|
03/08/2011|
03/08/2011|
29/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
14/07/2011|
14/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
13/07/2011|
06/07/2011|
06/07/2011|
07/06/2011|
07/06/2011|
20/05/2011|
20/05/2011|
02/05/2011|
02/05/2011|
19/03/2011|
17/03/2011|
14/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
12/03/2011|
03/03/2011|
22/02/2011|
21/02/2011|
12/02/2011|
01/02/2011|
30/01/2011|
29/01/2011|
28/01/2011|
19/01/2011|
07/01/2011|
29/12/2010|
17/12/2010|
16/12/2010|
10/12/2010|
24/11/2010|
23/11/2010|
15/04/2010|
15/04/2010|
03/04/2009|
31/03/2009|
31/03/2009|
30/03/2009|
30/03/2009|
28/03/2009|
28/03/2009|
26/03/2009|
25/03/2009|
25/03/2009|
23/03/2009|
23/03/2009|
20/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
19/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
14/03/2009|
14/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
12/03/2009|
11/03/2009|
11/03/2009|
10/03/2009|
10/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
07/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
05/03/2009|
28/02/2009|
28/02/2009|
28/02/2009|
28/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
27/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
19/02/2009|
31/01/2009|
31/01/2009|
31/01/2009|
23/01/2009|
18/01/2009|
13/01/2009|
05/01/2009|
02/01/2009|
25/12/2008|
25/12/2008|
24/12/2008|
24/12/2008|
19/12/2008|
14/12/2008|
14/12/2008|
13/12/2008|
13/12/2008|
07/12/2008|
07/12/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
26/11/2008|
26/11/2008|
25/10/2008|
25/10/2008|
22/10/2008|
22/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
15/10/2008|
11/10/2008|
11/10/2008|
08/10/2008|
08/10/2008|
20/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
14/09/2008|
08/08/2008|
08/08/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
27/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
04/07/2008|
12/05/2008|
17/04/2008|
17/04/2008|
25/03/2008|
24/03/2008|
24/03/2008|
18/03/2008|
18/03/2008|
10/03/2008|
07/03/2008|
22/02/2008|
22/02/2008|
22/02/2008|
18/02/2008|
18/02/2008|
18/02/2008|
16/02/2008|
13/02/2008|
12/02/2008|
09/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
30/12/2007|
30/12/2007|
30/12/2007|
27/12/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
21/11/2007|
11/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
30/10/2007|
04/10/2007|
28/09/2007|
16/09/2007|
16/09/2007|
08/09/2007|
06/09/2007|
30/08/2007|
26/08/2007|
22/08/2007|
22/08/2007|
22/08/2007|
21/08/2007|
11/08/2007|
08/08/2007|
14/07/2007|
02/05/2007|
02/05/2007|
20/04/2007|
20/04/2007|
20/04/2007|
20/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
18/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
16/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
13/04/2007|
13/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
11/04/2007|
04/04/2007|
04/04/2007|
31/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
30/03/2007|
28/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
15/03/2007|
15/03/2007|
15/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
08/03/2007|
01/03/2007|
28/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
27/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
08/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
07/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
02/02/2007|
02/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
01/02/2007|
31/01/2007|
31/01/2007|
25/01/2007|
25/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
10/01/2007|
10/01/2007|
03/01/2007|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
30/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
23/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
05/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
29/11/2006|
29/11/2006|
29/11/2006|
29/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
18/11/2006|
18/11/2006|
17/11/2006|
16/11/2006|
14/11/2006|
13/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
08/11/2006|
07/11/2006|
07/11/2006|
04/11/2006|
04/11/2006|
01/11/2006|
31/10/2006|
31/10/2006|
31/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
24/10/2006|
21/10/2006|
21/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
18/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
07/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
29/09/2006|
28/09/2006|
27/09/2006|
27/09/2006|
27/09/2006|
24/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
30/08/2006|
30/08/2006|
27/08/2006|
02/08/2006|
02/08/2006|
30/07/2006|
30/07/2006|
28/07/2006|
28/07/2006|
23/07/2006|
19/07/2006|
15/07/2006|
14/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
30/06/2006|
26/06/2006|
26/06/2006|
24/06/2006|
24/06/2006|
22/06/2006|
22/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
05/06/2006|
04/06/2006|
03/06/2006|
02/06/2006|
02/06/2006|
01/06/2006|
01/06/2006|
31/05/2006|
29/05/2006|
28/05/2006|
23/05/2006|
17/05/2006|
17/05/2006|
13/05/2006|
07/05/2006|
07/05/2006|
06/05/2006|
06/05/2006|
04/05/2006|
02/05/2006|
02/05/2006|
30/04/2006|
25/04/2006|
24/04/2006|
24/04/2006|
23/04/2006|
23/04/2006|
21/04/2006|
21/04/2006|
21/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
18/04/2006|
17/04/2006|
13/04/2006|
13/04/2006|
10/04/2006|
08/04/2006|
06/04/2006|
06/04/2006|
05/04/2006|
30/03/2006|
28/03/2006|
28/03/2006|
27/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
24/03/2006|
22/03/2006|
22/03/2006|
20/02/2006|
20/02/2006|
18/02/2006|
11/02/2006|
11/02/2006|
11/02/2006|
07/02/2006|
26/01/2006|
25/01/2006|
22/01/2006|
19/01/2006|
19/01/2006|
14/01/2006|
14/01/2006|
12/01/2006|
12/01/2006|
06/01/2006|
20/12/2005|
01/08/2005|
06/01/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House