Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Although the size of the rebel movement within the military is uncertain, its proclamations are having a destabilising effect on the country's fragile political situation.

Implications

President Mesa maintains the support of the senior ranks of Bolivia's military, while the country's most popular opposition leader, Evo Morales, criticized any armed attempts to force the head of state out of office.

Outlook

National rifts are deepening, making the task of governing one of Latin America's poorest countries even more challenging. Further unrest is expected in the coming months as the Mesa administration tries to build a consensus to hold onto power. Trying to assuage pro-business groups in Bolivia's energy-rich provinces limits Mesa's ability to re-establish a working relationship with Morales and the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), which would help allay leftist forces.

Another Battle for Bolivia's President

Bolivia's president is fighting off further demands for his resignation, this time from a group within the armed forces calling itself the Generational Military Movement (MMG). Rebel group leader Colonel Julio Herrera issued the demand in a statement broadcast on local television and radio. The MMG chief asserted that his group 'wants the resignation of the president of the republic', alleging that the incumbent has lost all power. Herrera claims to have the support of serving officers, including colonels, majors, captains and sergeants, as well as the support of civilians. Although the armed-forces chief and the respective heads of Bolivia's three military branches publicly backed President Mesa, the rebel group's pronouncements have heightened tensions in the troubled Andean nation. Bolivia's military chief Luis Aranda denied that his forces were plotting a coup while criticising Herrera in statements to the local press for what he described as 'irresponsible' and 'untimely' actions. 

The appeal for resignation came as Bolivia's capital La Paz bore the brunt of further social unrest. Activists took to the streets of La Paz for the third consecutive day, brandishing makeshift weapons during a demonstration to demand the nationalisation of the country's energy sector. Demonstrations have been flaring for several weeks, not assuaged by the passage of left-leaning hydrocarbons legislation that failed to go far enough for socialist groups and alienated pro-business sectors, particularly in the energy-rich Santa Cruz and Tarija provinces. Civil groups pushing for devolution in the departments have intensified their activities since then, promising to hold referenda unilaterally on the issue if the national Congress continues to delay in setting a revised date. La Paz protesters are also pushing for the swift establishment of a Constituent Assembly, which was promised by the president when he took office in October 2003 as part of his pledge to progress institutional reforms and bring marginalised communities closer to the democratic process. The government announced plans to consider establishing the body by decree in a bid to mollify the mob. However, this has provoked opposition in Congress from the Nationalist Revolutionary Movement (MNR), which feels undermined by the move.

Outlook and Implications

Bolivia's government continues to struggle to establish a semblance of political stability in the Andean country. President Mesa is proving tenacious, refusing to exit before the end of his mandate, since Congress asked him to stay on in March this year. Support from all military heads boosts his position, as does Evo Morales's vocal condemnation of any coup attempt against the incumbent government. Speaking to the local press, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) leader stated his wish 'to express [his] rejection of whatever military coup that might come'. Representing the largest party in Bolivian politics, Morales promised 'to defend democracy' even though his economic stance is in line with that of Colonel Herrera, who also demanded the re-nationalisation of Bolivia's energy industry.

Winning the muted backing of Morales is an important development for the government. President Mesa survived for most of his first year in office through an ad hoc alliance with the leftist figure. Since losing that over the hydrocarbons issue, Mesa's position became more vulnerable, while initiatives to determine the future of Bolivia's energy wealth have ignited further social unrest. Efforts by the previous administration of Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada to export Bolivian natural gas to North America via neighbouring rival Chile sparked a notorious 'Gas War' that ultimately claimed his leadership in October 2003.

The situation remains fragile around the Andean region, with Ecuador and Peru undergoing parallel governance challenges. Coup rumours have also emerged in Ecuador, connected to forces loyal to former president and former coup leader Lucio Gutiérrez, who was voted out by the country's parliament late last month. Allegations originating from respected Ecuadorian daily El Comercio have been rebutted by Colonel Marcelo Gaibor, who leads the 13th Brigade of the Pichincha Infantry and was accused of conspiring to remove interim president Alfredo Palacio. Peru's president Alejandro Toledo may have avoided a congressional impeachment vote over alleged electoral fraud, but his position remains vulnerable. Social unrest frequently causes disruption in Peru, where anti-government protests by indigenous groups were reported yesterday close to Lake Titicaca, which separates Peru from Bolivia. With less time left until Peru's next presidential elections - due in July 2006 - President Toledo is expected to complete his mandate, supported by a congressional consensus to allow him to do so. Congressional support for Bolivia's leader is less assured, since social unrest could still be enough to force him out before 2007.