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17/03/2009 | Mexico - An Unprecedented Focus on Juarez

Stratfor Staff

Authorities in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, announced March 15 that an additional 5,000 security forces had arrived in the city over the previous several days, bringing the total number of law enforcement and military forces in the area to more than 12,000.

 

According to officials, the total includes about 8,500 military troops, 2,300 federal police agents and 1,600 local police officers, along with Chihuahua state police agents and investigators from the federal attorney general’s office. Officials also indicated that three special forces battalions from Sinaloa, Coahuila and Nuevo Leon states will soon arrive in the area.

Even subtracting the local and state police officers — the groups most likely be the targets of federal investigations for ties to the cartels — the number of federal troops in Ciudad Juarez represents a concentration of forces in one area the likes of which has not been seen in the last few years of the cartel war. The sharp decline in violence in the city since the reinforcements began arriving several weeks ago is testament to how Mexican military deployments — when sufficiently large — can have a positive effect on the security situation in a certain area. And given the enormous resources being committed to this particular operation, there is reason for optimism in Ciudad Juarez.

But Mexico’s cartel problems are by no means limited to this city. And there are significant trade-offs and risks associated with the Mexican government’s unfolding strategy, especially considering that the Juarez deployments could account for as much as one fourth of all deployed military forces around the country. Such a move inevitably requires pulling troops from assignments in other areas that may appear less critical at the time, but where violence or organized crime activity could quickly escalate. One of these areas is the Nuevo Leon-Tamaulipas smuggling corridor, which passes through Monterrey and approaches the U.S. border in towns such as Nuevo Laredo and Reynosa. Another such area is the Sinaloa-Sonora smuggling corridor, which approaches the United States in towns such as Nogales, Agua Prieta, and Sonoita. Beyond these two corridors, the Mexican government has ongoing counternarcotics operations in nearly every state that could see reduced resources now due to the federal focus on Juarez.

The next few weeks will be important for observing how long the Mexican government maintains the current troop level in Juarez, and where — if at all — the country’s organized crime-related violence begins to increase in response to the clampdown in Ciudad Juarez.

Another Zeta Arrest in Reynosa

Mexican federal police scored a success this past week with the arrest of Sergio “El Concord” Pena Mendoza, believed to be a high-ranking member of Los Zetas in charge of the organization’s operations in Reynosa, Tamaulipas state. According to Mexican authorities, Pena took over the position following the November 2008 arrest of Jaime “El Hummer” Gonzalez Duran.

Previously, Pena had commanded Zeta operations along the Guatemala border in Chiapas state, where he is accused of having killed at least two police officers. Before that, he spent three years behind bars in a Nuevo Laredo prison until Gonzalez launched an escape plan that broke him out in 2006. One Mexican federal police official also suggested that Pena may have been involved in several plots designed to spring Zeta commander Daniel “El Cachetes” Perez Rojas from prison in Guatemala, where he has been held since his April 2008 arrest.

Pena’s capture is the latest in a series of arrests that have plagued the Zeta organization since the Mexican government launched its campaign against the cartels in December 2006. Perez and Gonzalez are just two examples of how high up these arrests have reached, though dozens of low-level Zeta operators also have been arrested every month.

In spite of these setbacks, the Zeta organization appears to have succession plans in place to deal with the loss of high-ranking members. That is not to say, however, that losses such as these are not damaging to the organization. On the contrary, such arrests have previously triggered retaliatory attacks against government officials or protracted firefights, as was the case recently in Reynosa. Because of this, there is a significant risk of reprisal attacks in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, which are already at risk of experiencing an increase of overall violence as federal forces continue to secure Juarez.

March 9

  • Federal police rescued a Belgian national from a kidnapping safe-house near Guadalajara, Jalisco state. The victim, the owner of a nightclub in Cancun, reportedly had been abducted by several armed men about one month before.
  • A police commander in Zamora, Michoacan state, died when he was shot by several men armed with assault rifles outside a police building.
  • The police chief of Pungarabato, Guerrero state, was shot to death by several armed men traveling in a vehicle.
  • Authorities in San Francisco del Rincon, Guanajuato state, found the bodies of two men who had their throats cut and were then marked with the letter “Z,” a symbol of Los Zetas.
  • The bodies of two unidentified men were found inside an abandoned vehicle in Tepuche, Sinaloa state, along with several firearms.

March 10

  • Mexican military officials stated that they were investigating five police officers in Playas de Rosarito, Baja California state, for links to organized crime following the arrest of a criminal cell.
  • The police chief of Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, confirmed that two officers on the force had been missing for several days. The officers had not shown up for work or contacted their families.
  • Authorities in Ixtlauacan del Rio, Jalisco state, found five coolers, each of which contained the severed head of an unidentified victim, as well as a threatening note signed by Los Zetas.

March 11

  • Authorities in Chile reported the arrest of three Mexican nationals in possession of more than 200 pounds of ephedra, a precursor chemical in the manufacture of methamphetamine.
  • Four people were reported killed in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, including an attorney who was president of the state bar association.
  • Two men and three women were shot to death when several armed men opened fire inside a bar in Gomez Palacio, Durango state.
  • Three police officers were wounded and four gunmen died during a firefight in Celaya, Guanajuato state.

March 12

  • Federal police announced the arrest of three members of the drug trafficking organization led by Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. The suspects are alleged to have managed the organization’s operations in Culiacan and Mazatlan, Sinaloa state.
  • A transportation official in Acapulco, Guerrero state, was wounded when several armed men opened fire on him.

March 13

  • A businessman in Salvatierra, Guanajuato state, died when he was shot several times while resisting an apparent kidnapping attempt. Police later arrested three suspects.
  • A Catholic priest who had been reported kidnapped near Villa Madero, Michoacan state, two days before was released unharmed and with his cell phone, which he used to inform family members that he was free.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 1 to 10 of 5271 )
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