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12/04/2009 | Georgia - Broadening Protests

Stratfor Staff

As the 3 p.m. local time deadline set by the opposition movement for Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to step down expires April 10, the opposition leaders have now announced that they will work to broaden their rallies throughout Tbilisi.

Thus far, the mass rallies — which reportedly brought out 60,000 to the streets April 9 (though other estimates range from 25,000 to 150,000) — have been concentrated in front of the Georgian parliament. But opposition leaders say they will keep that location blocked while also blocking the offices of state media and the presidential residences. The broadened rallies will begin in the evening of April 10 and stretch out over the weekend, though the numbers seen a day earlier in Tbilisi are not expected again soon since April 9 was a holiday.

Opposition leaders have said they will proceed with rallies and civil disobedience until Saakashvili tenders his resignation. The president has said he has no intention of complying, though he has maintained a low profile during the demonstrations, which are the largest seen since the 2003 Rose Revolution that brought him to power.

The opposition, composed of between 14 and 17 parties, is the most organized it has been in the past six years, and will successfully broaden its protests. But the opposition has not laid out a clear plan beyond ousting Saakashvili. Many within the Georgian opposition — and beyond — are waiting for the typically fractured groups to decide on who should replace Saakashvili, and then to see that individual develop a plan beyond merely ousting the president. Many other groups in Europe and Russia also want to see the erratic Saakashvili out, and are also waiting for a real plan by the opposition. So while the protests represented a first step for the opposition, for the movement to succeed, it must come up with a plan for something more than just the president’s ouster.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 


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