However, Alberta is not the only province with solid population growth. After several years of a shrinking population base, Saskatchewan's population has expanded for 12 consecutive quarters. We expect Saskatchewan's population to remain firmly above one million over our forecast horizon, as people have been flocking to the province, and continue to do so, at a solid pace. This is easily understandable, considering that even in the middle of the recession, Saskatchewan is able to generate very decent job growth.

Indeed, Saskatchewan has (as of June) the highest year-over-year (y/y) rate of employment growth among the provinces, at 2.9%—a rate achieved after several months of acceleration. Plus, while other provinces' unemployment rates climb to new record highs, Saskatchewan's unemployment rate fell for two straight months, from 5.0% in April to 4.6% in June. Within the province, advances in employment are mostly concentrated in construction; public administration; professional, scientific, and technical services; education; and building and other support services. On a national level, recent job growth is in "other" services, information, culture and recreation, and healthcare. In past recessions, provinces typically either lost jobs or at least experienced a significant slowdown in the pace of job creation. In the current recession, Saskatchewan employment has defied expectations and has grown at a healthy pace.

Saskatchewan's job growth stands in stark contrast to the sharp job losses occurring in Ontario. In June, Ontario's employment plunged 2.9% y/y. We are forecasting Ontario to be hit hardest in terms of overall job losses this year, falling by 2.7% in 2009. While severe job losses in Ontario's manufacturing sector have been evident for quite some time, other sectors are suffering as well, with considerable losses in transportation, construction, trade, and education. Nevertheless, jobs have been added in some specific industries in the province since the U.S. recession officially began in December 2007. Leading job growth over the past year and a half are positions available in the "other" services industry. Jobs typical to this sector are those such as telemarketing and customer service jobs. Therefore, jobs added to the Ontario employment market are probably low-paying, low-skill positions.

Since the U.S. recession began 19 months ago, both Ontario and British Columbia have experienced the most months of net job losses, at 11 months. In comparison, Saskatchewan had only five months of net job losses. Ontario and British Columbia are likely negatively impacted the most due to the reduction in exported goods to the United States, namely Ontario-produced autos and parts and B.C. forestry products. Based on this simplistic analysis, Saskatchewan has been the most successful in retaining or creating jobs since the U.S. recession started.

Near-Term Employment Prospects

Future job losses will likely be muted with the aid of government stimulus spending. The federal government has announced that 80% of the funds dedicated to stimulus spending have already been allocated. Announcements are made daily regarding "shovel-ready" projects that are dedicated to creating jobs. Therefore, we are likely to see either a stabilization or some growth within construction sector employment across the country. The problem arises when these "shovel-ready" construction jobs are completed. Construction jobs are cyclical and are not suited to long-term sustainable job creation.

British Columbia will likely see a pickup in retail and tourism industry employment with the influx of visitors to the province for the 2010 Winter Olympic Games. Again, this extra employment boost may be temporary.

As we expect both the U.S. and Canadian economies to begin picking up in the latter part of this year, with a full-force rebound anticipated in 2010 and 2011, employment growth will also rebound. The West and Prairie provinces' 2010 employment outlook will outperform the rest of the country. And, beginning in 2011, a more balanced pace of employment growth is expected across all regions averaging near 1.9%, with unemployment rates falling from peaks reached next year.