Radicalised Violence

According to media reports, two days of violence has resulted in over 100 deaths in Nigeria’s predominantly Muslim north after Islamist radicals launched attacks on police offices and government buildings in the Yobe, Kano, Borno and Plateau states, where dusk-to-dawn curfews have now been imposed. The unrest was triggered in Bauchi State on Sunday (26 July) by the arrest of a number of suspected leaders of a religious sect, named 'Boko Haram', who have been accused of recruiting young men to join their organisation, which is said to have been inspired by the Afghan Taliban movement. The violence soon spread to other states in the north as youths, armed with guns, machetes, home-made explosives and knives, reportedly targeted and killed a number of police officers and civilians at random, burned churches and administrative buildings, and stormed a prison, prompting Nigeria’s security forces to fight back, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP). Most of those killed were members of the sect, but some civilians and policemen also fell victim to the wave of violence.

The perpetrators are thought to be followers of radical cleric Mohamed Yusuf, a man who is currently being pursued by the authorities for espousing ideals that canvass for the eradication of Western education and science because it apparently is inimical to Islam. Yusuf’s adherents are called Boko Haram, a hausa term that means “education is prohibited”, the BBC reports. A senior member of the group, Abdulmuni Ibrahim Mohammed, told Reuters following his arrest, "We do not believe in Western education. It corrupts our ideas and beliefs. That is why we are standing up to defend our religion.” The group first came to the fore in 2004 when 200 radicals set up camp in the border village of Kanamma in north-eastern Yobe State, close to Niger. They renamed the area “Afghanistan” and professed to be sympathisers of the Afghani Taliban movement. However, at the time the group was not identified as posing a serious security threat given that the security forces appeared to have driven them underground after sporadic attacks on police stations were quashed.

These latest attacks are a clear indication of the movement's resurgence, as well as a lack of preparedness on the part of the security forces. Since Shari’a law was introduced into 12 of Nigeria’s 36 states in 2000, the minority Christian population in the north of the country has largely been alienated. Outbreaks of sectarian violence have occurred in certain parts of the country, particularly along the middle belt where the frontier between the Muslim north and the Christian south meet. With the north of Nigeria generally less well-developed than the south and liberal economic policies seeming to favour the burgeoning middle class in the south—where the banking and manufacturing sectors have taken off and where the commercial capital is situated—the potential for the seeds of resentment to be sown in the north is present. Boko Haram sees the non-Shari’a parts of the country—mainly the south—as infidels and, in its aim of establishing a puritanical caliphate in Nigeria, the country is likely to experience further clashes between the resistance movements and the government.

For the government, the challenge is in understanding the structure of the organisation and its modus operandi. Indeed, National Police Chief Ogbonna Onovo said of the group, "This is a fanatical organisation that is anti-government, anti-people. We don't know what their aims are yet. We are out to identify and arrest their leaders and also destroy their enclaves wherever they are, wherever they may be seen," AFP reports. There is some speculation that the group could be linked with al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), a group that was initiated to counteract the Algerian government, but has since spread its tentacles across not only the Maghreb but also into the Sahel and, given that Nigeria is home to the largest Muslim population on the African continent, it has always been suspected of being a key potential haven for AQIM.

Areas Worse Affected

• Maiduguri, Borno State: The violence has been most significant here. Members of the sect reportedly overpowered prison guards and broke into the new Maiduguri prison to release inmates. Maiduguri is also where Yusuf is believed to be based.
• Potiskum, Yobe State: The police station and neighbouring buildings were raided.
• Wudil, close to Kano State: The most populous northern Nigerian state where there have been more attacks on police.
• Plateau State: Security has been heightened in this state, situated along the middle belt of Nigeria, which is notorious for sectarian violence between Christians and Muslims.

Outlook and Implications

The sectarian violence in parts of northern Nigeria is a worrisome turn of events for a country long-besieged by a virulent militant campaign in the southernmost Niger Delta region, where the clamour for natural resources has sparked hostility with the oil sector. Just as the government has been making progress with the situation there by offering amnesty to the militants, and with the prospects for negotiation seemingly less elusive than before, it must now grapple with the emergence of Boko Haram. Without knowing too much about how the organisation operates, the government’s task is made more difficult and the way in which it handles the situation could impact on how the security environment evolves. Security forces have been mandated to use all necessary means to contain the violence, but abuse of these wide-reaching powers is likely to trigger a backlash at some stage.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)