Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Co-operation between other Latin American nations is key in helping Colombia secure the international support it needs to help bring its protracted conflict to a close. Concurrently, the Alvaro Uribe government is under pressure at home and abroad to progress the humanitarian accord to set free almost 60 hostages, including three US citizens.

Implications

Colombia has important lessons to learn from El Salvador, Guatemala and Jamaica, all of which are facing significant security challenges from violent crime, particularly gang crime, and organised crime syndicates. The South American nation is already sharing its experience through police training initiatives provided in countries such as Guatemala.

Outlook

The Central American Peace Process ended decades of civil conflict, but not without international support. The Colombian case is complicated further by the close integration of rebel and paramilitary groups in illegal drug operations. With leftist guerrillas still distant from the government and ongoing threats to the paramilitary peace process, a total cessation of violence will not be achieved in the medium-to-long term. The humanitarian accord is also liable to fail as Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels refuse to offer any such gift to the Uribe government, which is seeking re-election.

Parallel Conflicts

Caroline Barco today meets with her Salvadoran opposite Francisco Esteban Laínez Rivas. The two are expected to discuss Colombia's ongoing peace process, particularly the experience of the Central American country in reforming its police force to incorporate former fighters. The meeting will be followed by a visit to Jamaica, a Caribbean country that is struggling to contain its own burgeoning crime wave. El Salvador's police service has one of the best reputations in Latin America, where security forces are widely mistrusted by the population, with the notable exception of Chile. Colombia's Alvaro Uribe administration has suggested integrating former insurgents, the majority of which so far originate from the disbanding paramilitary United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC), in a civilian police force, as occurred in El Salvador and Guatemala. The handling of the process was far more successful in the Salvadoran case, while Guatemala is currently suffering from the shortcomings of its Civilian Police Force, for which integration and training initiatives were rushed through.

The Salvadoran sojourn follows a 24-hour stay in Guatemala, which also ended its civil conflict through the Central American peace process led by Costa Rica's then-president Oscar Arias. Concluding the brief time in the country, where Dr Barco held discussions with her counterpart Jorge Briz, the Colombian minister highlighted the 'strategic' importance of strengthening relations with Guatemala. The Central American country is suffering from a serious crime crisis, which its president, Oscar Berger, claims is reaching critical levels similar to those of Colombia. Security forces for the South American nation have already begun to support Guatemala in its bid to shore up security , while the handling of the Central American peace negotiations provides a valuable model for Colombia. Guatemalan authorities are struggling to contain both organised and violent crime. Under President Uribe, Colombia has celebrated staggering successes in the security arena, most notably in the falling murder and kidnapping rates. These led Global Insight to improve the security outlook for the Andean country , although this is likely to be adjusted temporarily as next year's election draws closer. Meanwhile, Mexico's Foreign Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez, whose country is facing a parallel security crisis, is due to visit Guatemala to address enhanced co-operation. Mexico continues to offer its mediation services as Colombia attempts to bring leftist rebels around the negotiating table.

Pursuing a Prisoner-Hostage Swap

Colombia's leading leftist guerrilla group, the FARC, is distant from the Uribe administration, which it regularly accuses of inflaming the civil conflict. In her joint press conference given in Guatemala yesterday, Foreign Minister Barco called on the rebel group to end violence and enter negotiations with the government. The only area of warming relations remains the long-awaited prisoner-hostage swap, and the FARC rebels and government appear to have agreed on a location to hold talks towards securing the release of some 59 civilian and military hostages in return for releasing imprisoned guerrillas who agree to renounce violence. Talks are due to be held in Aures, located in a mountainous zone of the south-western Caicedonia municipality, Valle department. Colombia's High Peace Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo confirmed the location for future negotiations after meeting with family representatives of those kidnapped by the FARC. The Uribe government is under considerable pressure from the population amid ongoing appeals from the family of former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt, who is amongst those being held by the rebels .

Outlook and Implications

Securing a humanitarian accord with the FARC before next year's vote would be an important result for the president or for the candidate he chooses to back in the event that he is prevented from standing for a second term. For this reason, the FARC is unlikely to agree to an accord during the current term, opting instead to pursue violent means to undermine the successes of the Uribe government. However, a recent upsurge in rebel activity has not reduced the president's popularity in the context of broad improvements in citizen security, despite international concerns regarding human rights protection in the Andean nation . President Uribe is in a strong position to secure re-election in 2006, although his capacity to do so still hinges on the decision of the Constitutional Court.

Colombia's civil conflict has been raging for some 40 years. Guatemala's lasted for 36 years in total, although threats to social peace are re-emerging. In the case of Colombia, efforts to bring its conflict to a peaceful conclusion are complicated further by the involvement of insurgent groups in the lucrative illegal drug trade, which apparently provides unlimited sources of funding for rebel and paramilitary groups. If genuine progress is to be made, international support - both financial and rhetorical - is a prerequisite. The engagement of the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN) in the Central American peace process were pivotal in bringing it to a peaceful conclusion. The EU's experience in progressing peace negotiations could be of immense value to Colombia, but relations are strained, despite the recent diplomatic efforts of the Uribe government . Most support from the international community so far comes from the US in the form of military aid. Colombia's armed onslaught against leftist rebel groups aims to force them into negotiations, at which point international backing will be paramount. In the meantime, regional efforts, such as enhanced co-operation with Guatemala, El Salvador and Mexico, are important steps towards clamping down on organised crime and laying the foundations for a more inclusive and binding peace process in Colombia.