Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The opposition has tried to link the low turnout rate for the recent municipal elections to the National Electoral Council (CNE)'s lack of credibility and President Chavez's inefficient government. The Chavez camp, on the other hand, insists that low turnout rates are normal in these kinds of electoral processes, though it has acknowledged some level of concern.

Implications

The municipal electoral process was mainly a test for two very important upcoming elections. In December this year, Venezuela will have full Congressional elections, which could change dramatically the balance of power in parliament - most likely in favour of Chavez.

Outlook

The political outlook remains the same after these regional elections. Indeed, indications are that Chavez will continue to tighten his grip on all public institutions, and a victory for him in next year's presidential election seems very likely at this point.

Turnout Rate Reaches Only 30%, According to National Electoral Council

The 7 August municipal elections have not brought about any major upset. As expected, the turnout rate was very low, and the Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) that supports President Hugo Chavez obtained an easy victory in most regions of the country. According to the National Electoral Council (CNE), the turnout rate was about 30%, in line with the previous regional elections in 2000, but well below the level anticipated by members of the same CNE and the government. Furthermore, some private organisations such as Sumate - the group who organised the collection of signatures in order to force a recall referendum on Chavez - said that the 'real' turnout rate was closer to 20%. Sumate and some members of the opposition have wondered how more than 450,000 votes (almost 20% of the total) could have been cast during a national three-hour extension of the voting period -from 4:00 p.m. until 7:00 p.m. local time - when television images showed only empty voting stations.

In any case, nobody denies the overall lack of interest in the municipal electoral process, a fact that does not favour any political group in particular. Of course, the opposition has tried to link the low turnout rate to the CNE's lack of credibility and Chavez's inefficient government. Meanwhile, the Chavez camp insists that low turnout rates are normal in this kind of electoral processes, though it has acknowledged some level of concern. As always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. In reality, municipal elections have always failed to generate much interest among the non-politically-active population. Most people do not even understand how the government works at the municipal level. Furthermore, Venezuela's political system has become more centralised in recent years, thus diminishing the relevance of local governments - this trend started with the ascension of Chavez to power in 1998.

At the same time, the low turnout rate does not bode well for the government either. The fact that a large proportion of self-proclaimed chavistas (Chavez supporters) did not go out to vote speaks of the fragility of their support to Chavez and the MVR. Meanwhile, the minuscule participation by opponents reflects mostly the lack of credibility of the current CNE. This CNE is the same that organised last year's recall referendum, which the opposition still claims was fraudulent. In our view, the CNE did nothing to improve its credibility during the municipal electoral process as it continued to use legally challenged measures such as extending the voting time period by three hours and allowing the creation of a MVR twin party, which gained the MVR extra representation at the municipal level.

Outlook and Implications

The municipal electoral process was mainly a test for two very important upcoming elections. In December this year, Venezuela will have full Congressional elections, which could dramatically alter the balance of power in the parliament - most likely in favour of Chavez. Then in late 2006 the country will go to the polls to elect a new president - or re-elect Chavez - in the first regular presidential election since 1998. Thus, the focus of the opposition in the near future will be on getting Congress and/or the Supreme Court to select a new CNE following current laws. This, of course, will be difficult to effect since Chavez virtually controls both institutions. In addition, the opposition will once again try to present a united front in these upcoming elections, though recent history suggests that this will also be an uphill battle.

Thus, the recent municipal elections have done little to change the political landscape of the country. Furthermore, the political outlook remains the same after these regional elections. Indeed, everything points to Chavez continuing to tighten his grip on all public institutions, and a Chavez victory in next year's presidential election seems a safe bet at this point. Yet, some recent opinion surveys has shown increasing dissatisfaction with the government as the economic impact of some popular social programmes seems to have reached its peak, and overall social conditions have failed to improved despite the ongoing oil windfall. Moreover, we expect economic growth to decelerate further in 2006 - in part because of higher comparison base and partly due to the government's increasing intervention of the economy - which will probably prompt an increase in levels of dissatisfaction.