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17/12/2009 | Terrorism in Northern Ireland - Resurgent: A political impasse means violence can flourish

The Economist Staff

Though their bailiwick is supposed to be at peace, Northern Ireland’s security forces are becoming increasingly concerned that republican terrorism is mutating into a new and even more dangerous form, more expert and with a wider range of tactics. Some of the dissidents who refused to accept the 1998 peace agreement are now behind bars, but others have taken their place and are proving so menacing that the threat they pose is at its highest official rating in over five years.

 

Both the Police Service of Northern Ireland and MI5, which handles security intelligence in mainland Britain and Northern Ireland, are devoting significant additional resources to countering the dissident threat. Security sources say that they are now following more suspected threat-to-life plots by republicans in Northern Ireland than by Islamists in mainland Britain. Though the republicans are not intent on inflicting large-scale civilian casualties, there is the awful example of their attack on the town of Omagh in 1998: they said that civilians were not the target but nonetheless 29 were killed.

The dissidents’ continuing activities mean that rather than sending bomb-disposal units to Iraq or Afghanistan, the army is keeping them in the province, where they must deal regularly with large bombs, under-car booby-traps, mortars and pipebombs. Hoax bombs, though harmless, disrupt everyday life, as do roadblocks, no matter how hard the police try to keep traffic flowing.

Terrorist splinter groups have shot dead three members of the security forces this year, and have been using Semtex plastic explosive and fertiliser-based material in attempted bombings. They have also been involved in smuggling and attempts at gun-running, most notably from Lithuania. Michael Campbell, whose brother, Liam Campbell, is an IRA leader, went on trial on October in Vilnius, where the court heard that his arrest had involved British, Irish and Lithuanian intelligence agencies. Add in “punishment” kneecappings in republican areas, and it is clear that the splinter groups are attempting to build a small-scale version of the Provisional IRA, which has now gone out of business.

A few veteran republicans are passing on techniques learnt in the IRA to the 300-400 active dissidents, mostly inexperienced young men. The old guard also brings with it some of the Semtex and firearms once held by the IRA—not, it is believed, in substantial quantities, but enough to keep the new campaign going.

The signs are that the police and MI5 are combating the threat by “turning” dissident members into agents. A recent attempt to shoot dead a police officer resulted in two arrests, the security forces evidently having received high-grade advance intelligence.

The authorities draw comfort from the fact that the dissidents have no political wing and are making no attempt to create one. Even among republican hardliners, they have virtually no public support. Among those evacuated from their homes in Strabane, County Tyrone, late on November 30th after dissidents threw a pipebomb at a police station was Patsy Devine. The 80-year-old’s two sons, both IRA members, were shot dead by the SAS in 1985. And yet, “the war’s over,” she told reporters on the scene. “Who wants it? I don’t want it and a lot of people round here don’t want it.”

Although Mrs Devine spoke for the overwhelming majority, many are nervous. Agreement about devolving power over policing to the Northern Ireland Assembly is proving elusive, and the impasse is producing noticeably tougher language from both nationalists and unionists in government. If it continues, disillusionment could set in and eventually swell the dissidents’ ranks. In the meantime the intelligence war against terrorists goes on.


 

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House