Despite the stiff competition of years past, though, 2010 is already taking shape as a year of reckoning for the country, the man, and the ideology. The coming months will write a defining chapter in the history of Venezuela, Chávez and Chavismo.

A number of factors have combined to make this a year of even greater strife. Chávez is looking vulnerable. That will invigorate the opposition, which will, in turn, likely prompt Chávez and his most committed ideological supporters to push even harder in defense of their "Bolivarian Revolution." There is little doubt that 2010 will see figurative, as well as real blood in the streets. In fact, blood has already flowed.

Over the years, Chávez's Bolivarian Revolution has moved gradually to silence the opposition media. The popular RCTV lost its broadcast license in 2007 but found a way to stay on the air by basing itself in Miami and sending its signal out via free cable. On Jan. 24, Chávez ordered cable providers to take RCTV off the air once and for all, claiming that RCTV broke the law by failing to broadcast Chávez's speeches in their entirety.

Predictably, the move outraged press freedom advocates. Somewhat less predictable was the intensity of the protests that followed. For several days, student-led demonstrators took to the streets in several Venezuelan cities. Rival pro-Chávez groups confronted the anti-Chávez crowds, leaving at least two people dead in unclear circumstances.

The disturbances are just one more crisis in what has become a season of discontent, with a growing list of problems combining to put the president on the defensive.

With his vulnerabilities in full view, Chávez issued a thinly veiled threat to those who might want to take advantage of the situation. "If you're going to head down the path of destabilization," he declared, "I'm warning you, it will yield the opposite result of what you're seeking."

Chávez has good reason to worry. The avalanche of challenges is growing fast. From energy shortages to spiraling inflation, life is becoming harder for most Venezuelans. A recent currency devaluation, though needed, will only make inflation worse.

Significantly, most of the difficulties Chávez now faces concern issues that make life increasingly difficult for the poor, meaning that failure to solve them will erode support among the wider Chavista base. That will leave the president dependent on the support of an increasingly narrow and ideologically driven minority. And to maintain their allegiance, he is likely to resort to more radical, ideologically driven maneuvers -- sowing the seeds of even more conflict.

Venezuela is in the midst of a grave energy crisis, complete with rolling electricity blackouts and even water supply cut offs. In addition, the crime rate has exploded out of control. Today, Caracas has one of the highest murder rates in the world -- up 67 percent in the Chávez decade. On top of this, Venezuela has one of the world's highest inflation rates, slowly eating away at the purchasing power of a population already plagued by poverty.

To some, Hugo Chávez and his economic policies are to blame for all these problems. Others see outside interests, entrenched bureaucrats, and the forces of nature as the real cause.

To be sure, the energy crisis could have been eased by smarter spending on infrastructure. But there is no denying that a severe drought is the most immediate cause of a lack of electricity in a country that relies primarily on hydroelectric resources for power generation.

Still, Chávez's economic policies have spurred inflation and deterred foreign investment. They have also reduced oil production by politicizing the selection of national oil company staff and by diverting funding from maintenance of production facilities to social programs. The drop in world oil prices and the worldwide recession have certainly dealt a harsh blow to the oil-dependent economy. But Chávez's string of nationalizations and his war of rhetoric against foreign capital have made Venezuela much too risky for many investors.

The simmering dispute with Colombia -- a purely political matter -- has cut off a top trading partner, dealing another blow to the economy.

As Venezuelans debate who is to blame for their problems, the rest of the continent is quickly reaching its own conclusions. Chavismo, the ideology that for a time appeared poised to sweep across Latin America, is steadily losing adherents.

Chávez still enjoys strong support from Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega -- who is now deeply unpopular in his own country -- and from Bolivia's President Evo Morales. Ecuador's President Rafael Correa is also a friend. But increasingly, electorates are turning away from him. The drawn-out drama in Honduras ended with a defeat for Chavismo. Elections in Chile resulted in a turn towards the right. And in neighboring Colombia, President Álvaro Uribe remains extremely popular -- even as Chávez fulminates against Colombia and its strong ties to "The Empire," Chávez's nickname for the United States.

Warning about the threat posed by the U.S. used to be a useful tactic for Chávez. But now that George W. Bush is out of office, that old crowd-pleasing line has lost its ring.

At home, Chávez has been losing support among his closest aides, leading to a stunning succession of resignations and political reshufflings.

The opposition is watching closely and it surely smells blood in the water. But there is a reason Chávez has managed to hold power for more than a decade. He is a clever politician who will not go down without a fight.

This is the year of the fight.

**Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday.