Case in point: The outcome of Uganda's 2011 presidential election is a foregone conclusion, and no one -- whether Uganda's electoral commission, its legions of international donors, or the investors in its newly discovered oil fields -- is likely to do anything about it.

President Yoweri Museveni rose to power in 1986 as the head of the guerrilla National Resistance Army that overpowered the regime of Milton Obote. In the intervening years, he earned the favor and financial support of international donors for his commitment to IMF-imposed financial regimes that paid off in infrastructure dividends.

That fiscal discipline seemed to overshadow some of Museveni's more questionable tactical and security decisions, including Uganda's role in the mid-1990s civil war in Democratic Republic of Congo. Even his scorched-earth campaign against the northern rebel Lord's Resistance Army -- which led to the internment of the ethnic Acholi people in squalid camps as a way to "save" them from conscription in the LRA -- unfolded with relatively little scrutiny.

Over the years, however, Museveni's manipulation of the constitution -- backed by intimidation and repression of the opposition during both the 2001 and 2006 elections, which he won handily -- has removed some of the shine from his presidency in the eyes of the international community. Symbolic cuts in the generous aid to Uganda, where more than one-third of the population continues to live on less than $1 per day, began in 2005 to protest Museveni's unwillingness to relinquish power.

Undaunted, Museveni systematically overhauled the country's armed forces since then, transforming them from a guerrilla movement with neither doctrine nor strategy into a competent, professional and fairly disciplined military. That decision, taken even as education, health care and other social services languished in decay, has proven to be prescient for the savvy politician, who now finds himself again a darling of the international community.

His newfound favor is due in large part to the crucial role the Ugandan People's Defense Force (UPDF) is playing in assuring some measure of security in lawless and chaotic Somalia. Some 3,000 UPDF troops form the backbone of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), a peacekeeping operation that for all intents and purposes is the only mechanism standing in the way of the wholesale takeover of the country by Islamist insurgents.

Despite mounting concerns, expressed even by the top U.N. humanitarian official for Somalia, that the UPDF troops are shelling indiscriminately into civilian areas, the reliance on Uganda to ensure stability by both the Somali government and its international backers cannot be underestimated.

One Western diplomat in Kampala who spoke to World Politics Review on condition of anonymity explained, "There is a sense in the diplomatic community that 2011 is a lost cause and we are all looking ahead to 2016 for a change of regime. Maybe it is due to Somalia, though some consider that to be a specious argument, but in reality, there have been few indications that power is going to change hands anytime soon."

This has not prevented the diplomatic community from expressing its concerns, many of which center around the impartiality of the electoral commission stacked with Museveni partisans. Twice-yearly diplomatic meetings with the president since 2005 have evoked these issues and identified recommended reforms, including an independent peer-review mechanism by other African countries with better democratic track records. But so far, nothing has been done.

"The problems have not been addressed," said one frustrated ambassador. "We have not seen any formalized or certified electoral rolls, so it is impossible to have a clear picture."

Also muddying the picture is Uganda's newfound oil wealth. On track to become East Africa's newest producer, the country has encouraged a high-stakes competition for the right to explore oil fields and invest some $8 billion in developing extraction and refining infrastructure.

On offer are more than 700 million barrels of transformable crude. Tullow Oil, the U.K.-based conglomerate leading the exploration, thinks there could be as many as 1.5 billion barrels in the as-yet-untouched Albertine Rift region around Lake Albert, putting Uganda on par with Equatorial Guinea and Chad among important African producers. Production could come on line in 2011, coincidentally timed with the presidential vote, but full exploitation, estimated at 150,000 barrels a day, is unlikely to begin before 2015.

Almost inevitably, fears of a resource curse have settled over the country, driven by China's desire to command a slice of the oil wealth in exchange for a handsome fee. While corruption in Uganda is not nearly as insidious as in some neighboring states, most suspect that Museveni will spread the lucre to ensure his victory at the 2011 polls.

Among the likely beneficiaries are tribal leaders demanding the restoration of traditional kingdoms in the resource-rich West. Having unexpectedly succeeded at putting their cause at the forefront of the national debate about resource management and dividend payments, they will probably require political or financial compensation to stand down.

Also probably in line to receive government hush money are the evangelicals who have lined up behind a controversial anti-homosexuality bill sponsored by a member of parliament and supported in the back-channels of government by Museveni's wife, herself a devout born-again Christian. Museveni's tolerance of the debate over the bill waned considerably in the face of near-total international condemnation, with U.S. President Barack Obama speaking for many when he called it "odious."

Such political miscalculations are rare for the wily 66-year-old, who has outlasted many of his regional counterparts and remains, despite mounting popular disappointment, a populist figure more comfortable in the fatigues of his guerrilla days than the dark suits of his political office.

Museveni's recent errors remain, however, aberrations in a political career that looks likely to continue for at least another six years.

**Lauren Gelfand is a freelance journalist and analyst now based in Nairobi, Kenya, with an interest in security and defense issues. After beginning her career as a wire service correspondent, working on three continents for Agence France-Presse, she currently serves as Middle East and Africa editor for Jane's Defence Weekly magazine. She writes in French and in English for a variety of publications.