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24/02/2010 | Itching for That Economic Recovery

Karlyn Bowman

Economic performance, as everyone knows, is central to a president's fortune. Right now, Americans are deeply pessimistic about the economy's direction and they do not like what they are getting from Washington--from the president or members of Congress. Economic worries may also be contributing to changes in attitudes on health care reform.

 

A president's fortunes, as we all know, are inextricably tied to the economy's performance. For Barack Obama that's bad news. Not only are Americans deeply pessimistic about the economy's direction, but they are becoming impatient, and they don't like what they are getting from Washington. Economic worries may also be contributing to changes in attitudes about health care reform.

In a late January poll ABC News and the Washington Post captured the nation's pessimism with this question: "Many economists say that using the standards they apply, the recession is probably over. Thinking about your own experience of economic conditions, would you say that from your point of view the recession is over or not over?" An overwhelming 88% said it wasn't over. In an early February Gallup poll 31% mentioned unemployment as the country's top problem--almost four times the number of those who gave that response during the 2008 election (8%) and the highest Gallup has recorded since 1983. According to a ThomsonReuters/University of Michigan survey released Feb. 19, a majority expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at its high level.

These concerns have caused Barack Obama's marks on handling the economy to plummet. Although more people still blame President George W. Bush for the country's economic woes, they are nonetheless judging the current president very negatively. In Gallup's February poll, 36% approved of Obama's handling of the economy, while 61% disapproved. In February 2009, those numbers were essentially flipped--to 59% and 30%, respectively. In a February Pew poll this year, 24% said Obama economic policies had made economic conditions better, while slightly more people, 27%, said they had made things worse. Four in 10 said they had had no effect.

Nor are Americans very enthusiastic about the economic stimulus bill, which had its anniversary last week. Most polls taken before the president signed the measure into law found more support than opposition. Pew's poll from June 2009 showed that 55% approved of the $787 plan, while 39% disapproved. In its February 2010 poll just 38% approved.

Only 6% said in a new CBS News/New York Times poll said the stimulus bill had already produced jobs. A plurality, 48%, said it would not create a substantial number of new jobs, while 41% thought it would create new jobs but hasn't yet. As for more federal spending to boost the economy, Americans in some polls want to do something to spur job growth, but other polls show concern about the deficit overriding new spending. More generally recent responses to questions about whether the federal government is doing or spending too much are unusually high.

Barack Obama fared better than Democrats and Republicans in Congress in a CBS/New York Times question about offering reasonable solutions to the economic problems people are facing, but majorities gave all three negative marks. As the president finishes up a Western-states swing to bolster vulnerable Democrats in the region in this year's election, the political consequences of the economic downturn can be seen in another question. In the October 2008 CBS/New York Times poll 29% said the Republican Party was more likely to ensure a strong economy; 47% cited the Democrats. Those responses are now 42% and 37%, respectively.

What do sour economic perceptions mean for the health care summit this week? Obama's ratings on health care have tanked too, but views about the Republicans in Congress on the issue have only improved a little. Although Americans have told several pollsters they don't want to "give up" on health care reform, other polls have shown support for suspending action. Americans say the bill is too expensive, even as they like many specific provisions.

Performance matters in politics, and right now, Americans aren't satisfied. For the president, that's a big problem.

Karlyn Bowman is a senior fellow at AEI

American Enterprise Institute (Estados Unidos)

 



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