Of course, the most prominent rising power, China, is no democracy. But in this, China is the great outlier. All of today's other rising powers feature representative governance, as a cursory look around the world makes readily apparent.
The most obvious ascending democracy is India. With a population second only to China, a booming economy, some of the world's most innovative firms, and an increasingly formidable military, India is Asia's second emerging superpower. Already, it exercises a decisive voice in efforts to combat global warming, promote free trade, and ensure maritime security.
Long overshadowed by the "Colossus of the North," Latin America now boasts
a colossus of its own -- Brazil. The world's fifth-most populous nation, Brazil has a sophisticated industrial base and natural resources ranging from rain forests to undersea oil. It is a pivotal player on trade and climate change, and as the Iranian nuclear deal demonstrates, on nonproliferation as well. And Brazil, too, is a vibrant democracy.
Indonesia is the world's largest Muslim democracy and one of the world's foremost emerging markets. It sits athwart the strategic crossroads of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Comprising more than 17,000 islands, Indonesia exercises stewardship over the second-largest concentration of biodiversity on the planet. On environmental and maritime issues, Indonesia is an actor of the first order.
Another Muslim democracy, Turkey, has over the past decade taken on a leadership role in the Middle East, of which Ankara's role in brokering the nuclear deal with Iran is simply the latest example. Turkey has one of the most dynamic economies in its region. As a country belonging to both the West and East, combining both secularism and Islam, Turkey serves as a sharp contrast to the dichotomized identities prevalent elsewhere in the Middle East.
South Africa underwent a peaceful transition from apartheid to democratic rule in 1994. Producing one-third of sub-Saharan Africa's GDP, it is a motor for regional economic development. Politically, South Africa's support is essential for moving forward African institutions. At the global level, South Africa wields considerable clout on issues like climate change and trade.
As these five democracies rapidly emerge as full-fledged powers with far-flung influence, their rise is cause for optimism about the future. Why? To be sure, shared values do not guarantee a complete congruence of interests. The United States, Europe, and Japan will not always see eye to eye with these arriviste democracies, as is already evidenced by differences over climate change, trade, and Iran. However, the fact that an overwhelming majority of rising powers are democracies has strongly positive implications for the nature of the global order that is coming into existence.
First, most of the new players in this global order will behave predictably. Democratic governance is premised on internal checks and balances. Garnering a consensus among multiple domestic groups is time-consuming and compels leaders to shy away from extreme positions. The dispersion of authority that democracy entails therefore tends to minimize variation in a state's foreign policy.
Democracies may shift course, but they do so slowly, and within relatively confined boundaries. A world where internal checks and balances regularize the behavior of recently arrived powers will be considerably easier to navigate than one where newly influential states lack domestic ballasts.
Second, democracies can rise without producing a global order riven by fear and hostility, because of the domestic transparency made possible by democratic institutions. In democracies, the media can extract information from government authorities and convey that information to the world. Although unable to disclose classified information, officials representing a democracy can still engage in open, far-ranging conversations with their foreign counterparts. This domestic transparency enables outsiders to readily discern a democracy's intentions.
History teaches us that uncertain ambitions combined with growing capabilities breed fear. In the case of rising democracies, however, domestic transparency will short-circuit the cycle of mistrust, reaction, and counter-reaction that typically accompanies the ascendance of new powers.
Third, a world of rising democracies is a world ripe with opportunities for access, meaning the ability to intervene inside another state's policymaking process. This can take the form of lobbying government officials, playing off rival bureaucracies, or cultivating powerful societal groups that in turn pressure the government.
Because they feature checks and balances and domestic transparency, democracies inherently present outsiders with opportunities for access. Decentralization of authority enlarges the number of groups that participate in decision-making, while a free media and communicative officials enable other states to identify friends and capitalize on internal disagreements. Access means that rising democracies are highly permeable to outside influence. Their trajectories can be shaped and their power channeled in ways that reinforce an open international system.
So regardless of how it ultimately plays out, the Iranian nuclear deal is already good news. It demonstrates the growing influence of arriviste democracies, and more importantly, their inclination to play a constructive role in the emerging global order. A world of rising democracies is a world that America should feel comfortable welcoming.
**Dr. Daniel M. Kliman is a visiting fellow at the Center for a New American Security. He is completing a book on rising powers.
