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29/06/2010 | A Year after Coup, Honduras Still Faces Public Security Crisis

Eliot Brockner

Almost a year ago to the day, members of the Honduran military physically removed then-President Manuel Zelaya from the presidential palace, stripping him of the presidency and forcing him into exile in Costa Rica.

 

In spite of massive international attention and multilateral efforts in the days and months that followed, reconciliation -- both domestically and internationally -- remains elusive. The region continues to be divided over current President Porfirio Lobo's legitimacy, to the point that on a recent return flight from Peru, Lobo's plane had to bypass Ecuadorian airspace because the Ecuadorian government still refuses to recognize his presidency.  

Arguing in Lobo's favor is the progress he has achieved in stabilizing the country's finances and, arguably, its political situation. But a persistent crisis in public security continues to threaten the country's slow and bumpy return to normality.

Even before the coup, Honduras was one of the most violent countries in the hemisphere. Plagued by international drug trafficking, Honduras has seen its homicide rate balloon to 58 per 100,000, one of the highest in Central America. The country is geographically blessed and strategically cursed with ample Caribbean coastline and a number of hidden and formerly abandoned airstrips in its eastern jungle. As a result, it has become a key node in the region's complex drug supply chain. According to a report released on June 23, the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime referred to the country, along with Guatemala and El Salvador, as Central America's "Golden Triangle," and listed Honduras as being the most impacted by the drug trade -- even more so than Mexico.

Another troubling public security issue has to do with free speech. Nine journalists have been killed this year in Honduras, most recently on June 14 in El Paraiso. It is not clear whether these killings are politically related, drug related, or simple thuggery and intimidation against what the murderers perceive as potential threats to business as usual. 

In addition to raising concerns over the future of free speech in Honduras, the murders raise the issue of impunity, which hovers at around 96 percent for all crime. Whether it is the hijacking of a city bus at gunpoint or a gun battle over control of drug trafficking routes, most crimes in Honduras go unpunished, with Honduran media outlets feeding the perception that little is being done. 

"Public opinion in Honduras is that crime is still a serious issue," says Warren Post, a former U.S. foreign service officer in Tegucigalpa who has lived in Honduras for the past 20 years. "The media tends to focus on the youth gangs, mainly because they are the most visible, and no longer so much on the narcoavionetas [drug-trafficking aircraft], which have become the norm."

Some foreign governments have begun to respond to the public security situation. In June, the United States donated 25 all-wheel drive vehicles to the Honduran Armed Forces, in what some analysts saw as the first step to greater military cooperation between the two nations. It is one of the first such gestures since the U.S. suspended all military aidfollowing the 2009 coup. Washington also recently expressed support of Honduras' efforts to build an anti-narcotics base in Gracias a Dios province. 

Less than two weeks after the gift, the U.S. Embassy in Tegucigalpa announced another one, this time $75 million in spending on development projects, such as rebuilding roads and agriculture. Additionally, according to a UPI report, U.S. Ambassador Hugo Llorens announced that a further $20 million will go to improving security measures, such as anti-kidnapping, anti-gang, and drug trafficking prevention. Many question whether the aid will have a positive impact, but the commitment of nearly $100 million represents a shift toward greater support in Washington for the Lobo administration. This may isolate some of the other neighbors that Lobo is attempting to woo.

It is unclear whether increased military cooperation or military spending, no matter how well-intentioned, will have an immediately noticeable impact on Lobo's administration. Unlike some of its Central American neighbors, who have turned their focus to combating public security, the current Honduran administration is putting most of its efforts into re-establishing diplomatic ties with its neighbors. Since assuming the presidency in late January, Lobo has been on a regional blitz, consolidating ties with official state visits to countries that recognize his government (Costa Rica, Peru, Colombia, Panama) as well as more-skeptical neighbors (Nicaragua). He has also publicly reversed his stance on the coup in a nod to Brazil and Venezuela, who have yet to recognize his government. 

Additionally, Lobo may have more pragmatic reasons to be wary about focusing too much on security. "Lobo made security his major platform when running in 2005 and lost," according to Post, who added that the current president may be more inclined to focus his efforts on restoring Honduras' legitimacy in the international arena. With so many different opinions on reconciliation, this is no easy task. 

Lobo faces other domestic challenges as well, including pressure from striking teachers and regional governments, a much-maligned justice system, and accusations of human rights violations. In the midst of all of this, he is concentrating much of his attention on restoring Honduras' image in the international eye. As a result, improving public security and justice for average Hondurans is likely to remain elusive. 

**Eliot Brockner is a Latin America analyst for iJET Intelligent Risk Systems. He is a regular contributor to LatAmThought.

World Politics Review (Estados Unidos)

 


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