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16/12/2010 | Dispatch: Tracking Egypt's Presidential Succession Plan

Stratfor Staff

Analyst Reva Bhalla examines the evolving dynamics of Egypt’s presidential succession plan and the possibility for increased military influence in Cairo’s political affairs.

 

Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.

In facing growing pressure from the military over his succession planning, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak now seems to be leaning toward the idea of handing power over to his former air force chief instead of his son, Gamal. One thing that’s becoming clear is that the military is having an increasing say over the political affairs of the Egyptian state as the sustainability of the regime post-Mubarak comes into question.

Mubarak told an Egyptian newspaper today that he wishes that the opposition hadn’t wasted its efforts over first arguing over a boycott in the recent parliamentary elections, then participating, and then dropping out after they saw the results. Now, the Egyptian regime is clearly on the defensive after these elections because the ruling National Democratic Party expectedly trounced the opposition, which is composed mainly of the Muslim Brotherhood and Mohamed ElBaradei’s National Assembly for Change. Those elections are also being criticized widely for alleged vote-rigging that left the Muslim Brotherhood with zero seats in the parliament despite its considerable popular support in the country. Mubarak’s government is understandably on the defensive in the wake of these elections which explains Mubarak’s comment on how the opposition is the one to blame for its losses but it’s becoming increasingly difficult for the Egyptian government to conceal a growing dispute in the upper ranks of the regime over the succession strategy.

The Mubarak succession strategy has taken on a lot of variations. First, Mubarak had a plan to somehow transfer power to his son, Gamal, when he becomes incapacitated. The problem is that the old guard of the regime both in the ruling party and the military are not comfortable with the idea of the younger and inexperienced Gamal taking over, especially in light of his more reform-minded ideas on the economy. To try to stave off the crisis, Mubarak had planned to have his powerful intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, become vice president and then eventually take over as president for Mubarak when Mubarak becomes incapacitated, and Suleiman was expected to hold that position for at least a year before handing the reins down to Gamal.

Now in recent months, members of the old guard made clear to Mubarak they were not happy with a succession plan that involves Gamal. They highly respect Suleiman but they are worried that Suleiman’s advanced age and his health issues may lead to a quicker transition to Gamal altogether.

In the meantime Mubarak seems to be leaning toward an idea to have his former air force chief, Ahmed Shafiq, take over eventually for him, as someone from the old guard, someone that’s well-respected, and someone that doesn’t have the advanced age and health issues as Mubarak and Suleiman. One thing that makes Suleiman uniquely qualified for this position is that not only does he have the military credentials as the former air force chief, but he also has civilian credentials in his position currently as the minister for civil aviation. So what we’ve seen eventually play out over the past several months is how the military has gained an increasing say over the political affairs of the state, specifically right now the succession issue, but that influence is likely to expand and as the opposition becomes louder and as the Muslim Brotherhood tries to exploit the succession process, the military’s ability to justify it stronger hand at the helm also increases.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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Center for the Study of the Presidency
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