One election appeared foreboding, with violence and unrest accompanying an uncomfortable silence following the country's runoff election.

The other seemed promising, with a relatively smooth run-up - especially for a country that had long been divided by civil war.

And then things changed dramatically.

Guinea: Back from the brink

The first country, Guinea, had not seen a free election since the country gained independence from France in 1958. For two years it had been under the sway of military rule. On 7 November, Guineans went to the polls for a runoff election because no candidate had won the required majority during the first round. Violence both preceded and followed the runoff, as supporters of the remaining candidates, opposition leader Alpha Conde and the former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, clashed in the streets with police and each other.

As so often happens with such events, outside media grossly oversimplified the reasons for conflict, reducing them to a narrative about ethnicity - but ethnic strife tends to be more about access to political power and resources than about ethnicity per se. After the country's Supreme Court finally declared Conde the winner, it seemed quite possible that the violence might accelerate into something far worse.

And then in early December Diallo conceded defeat. He lamented that his party's allegations of voter fraud and other irregularities were not taken seriously, and so concluded that "since the decision of the Supreme Court cannot be appealed...we have no choice but to conform to the decision made by the top legal institution in the republic."

If Diallo's concession was not necessarily a victory for the rhetoric of statesmen, it represented a fairly substantial win for the rule of law.

Guinea, the world's top exporter of the aluminum ore bauxite, can hardly claim to be the model of state stability. But the fact that a simple gesture acknowledging a bitter defeat allowed the country to step back from the brink should be telling. What politicians say and how they act can and does matter.

Ivory Coast: Lessons not learned

It is too bad that Ivory Coast's incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo did not draw lessons from Diallo in Guinea. His country, ravaged by civil war earlier in the decade and as desperate for a free and clean election as Guinea, had every reason to feel good as the 28 November poll, also a runoff, approached. The election pitted Gbagbo - who had won a plurality of votes in the first round that took place at the end of October but fell far short of a majority - against opposition leader Alassane Ouattara. The UN Security Council and other observers had praised the first round elections, which the body called "a historic step towards the restoration of sustainable peace."

To be sure there were fears of violence and upheaval both before the initial polling and as people prepared to hear results. But given Ivorians' experience for many years, all signs pointed to a promising final round.

And then the results were announced. Ouattara, a former economist for the International Monetary Fund who also served as Ivory Coast Prime Minister and who enjoys the bulk of his support from the former rebels in the country's north, was declared the victor by the country's Independent Electoral Commission. Promptly, the country's Constitutional Council, stacked with Gbagbo's people, declared their man the winner. A stalemate set in.

And the stalemate continues. Both Ggabgo and Ouattara have been sworn in, and both claim the right to carry out presidential duties. The international community, including those that have spoken in Africa, overwhelmingly recognize Ouattara as the legitimate victor. But Gbagbo enjoys the loyalty of many within the military.

The European Union has promised sanctions, a sign that outsiders don't know how to engage. And Ivorians are beginning to stream across the borders into Liberia, a country hardly equipped to deal with unrest on and across its borders, a clear indication that they recognize that things may not end well (if they end at all).

In 2007 Gbagbo appeared to be a figure destined to help reconcile his fractured country, torn apart by a seemingly ceaseless civil war. That year, legendary footballer Didier Drogba requested that Ivory Coast play its next African Nations Cup qualifier against Madagascar in Bouake in the rebels' northern territory. Gbagbo agreed. Ivory Coast crushed the visitors 5-0, and one headline read "FIVE GOALS ERASE FIVE YEARS OF WAR." It was not that simple, of course, but Gbagbo demonstrated that he had - and perhaps has - the capacity to be a leader of the country's reconciliation.

But in order for that reconciliation to happen, Gbagbo must step down. There are no half measures. As is so often the case in these conflicts, and as we can see in the Guinean example, politicians do have the capacity to make a difference. Curb the rhetoric, encourage supporters to go home, call for peace, and in Gbagbo's case, concede. How a politician leaves office can be as important as what he or she does while in it, and while none of the recent events can fully salvage Gbagbo's legacy, he might just be able to help save his country. Whatever victory he claims will be no win at all for the people of the Ivory Coast, who know all too well the consequences of political intransigence and the violence that so often follows.

The recent events in Guinea and Ivory Coast should also remind us of another truism in global politics: Elections are a necessary but not sufficient condition for democracy to bloom. Truly democratic states also have the rule of law and democratic institutions. And they have leaders who recognize those laws and those institutions. Both Guinea and the Ivory Coast chose to step toward the brink in the last month. Guinea stepped back, at least for the time being. It remains to be seen if Ivory Coast can do the same.

**Dr Derek Charles Catsam is Associate Professor of History at the University of Texas of the Permian Basin, where he teaches Modern African history and Modern US history with an emphasis on race, politics and social movements. He is also a senior writer for the Foreign Policy Association's Africa Blog and has lived, worked and travelled extensively throughout southern Africa.