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Significance

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was rushed to hospital in Jerusalem late last night, complaining of chest pains. Doctors operated throughout the night, warning that Sharon's situation was 'serious'.

Implications

With Sharon having dominated the Israeli political and military scene for decades, his second stroke in less than three weeks could potentially bring to an end his political career, as well as an era marked by controversy and sharp political acumen. For his supporters, any potential incapacitation could also signal an impromptu end to the popularity enjoyed by Sharon's newly established Kadima party.

Outlook

Although the centrist Kadima alliance is an amalgamation of disgruntled Labour and Likud members, the party is essentially rooted in, and singularly beholden to, Sharon. Given that the premier's health (were he to survive this latest hospitalisation) will prevent his participation in the forthcoming polls, the election race will once more become a familiar left- and right-wing contest.

End of an Era?

Sharon was due to undergo an operation later today, to plug what doctors described as a small hole in his heart, which caused a minor stroke only last month (see Israel: 19 December 2005: Israeli PM Suffers Minor Stroke). Although the previous hospitalisation was brushed off by the premier's aides as a one-off, last night's events will cast a shadow over Sharon's chances of resuming his leadership responsibilities, and indeed the likelihood of him continuing his political career.

According to the latest medical update at the time of writing, Sharon underwent seven hours of surgery overnight to address bleeding, which has now been halted. Doctors have finished operating and Sharon has been transferred from surgery to the neurological ward. 'Prime Minister Sharon is in a severe condition [but] he is stable', Dr Shlomo Mor-Yosef, the director of Jerusalem's Hadassah hospital, told reporters this morning. Aides to the premier were in obvious shock at his predicament; one senior source told Reuters that the situation 'looks very bad. I don't know if he will recover'. However, Sharon's personal doctor offered a more positive assessment, suggesting that he would make it safely through the treatment.

On admittance to hospital, prime-ministerial responsibilities were transferred to the finance minister and deputy premier, Ehud Olmert, who is currently chairing an emergency meeting with the Israeli cabinet in light of the fast-developing events. 'We are all praying for the prime minister. We are living with a difficult and complex situation but the government is functioning and Israel is functioning', he told public radio (quoted by AFP). According to the Israeli constitution, power can be handed over to the deputy premier for a maximum of 100 days, following which the president would meet political leaders to help form a coalition government. Given that Israel is already in the grip of an election campaign, a change in government is likely within the coming months irrespective of the latest developments.

Sharon was dubbed the 'bulldozer', for his political and military exploits as well as his physical traits, and his illness has inevitably raised questions over whether or not he can stage another comeback in his remarkable political career. It would be no exaggeration to suggest that no Israeli politician - barring perhaps Israel's founding premier, David Ben-Gurion - has dominated the political environment as much as Sharon. He has been reviled by the Arab masses for instigating the invasion of Lebanon in the early 1980s, and held 'indirectly responsible' for the massacre of Palestinians in the Sabra and Chatila refugee camps. His about-turn from general to statesman caught many - Israelis as well as Palestinians - off-guard. In the last few months alone, Sharon has seen through the unprecedented pullout of Israeli settlements from the Gaza Strip. Also, in November 2005, something of a political revolution was unleashed after the premier announced his resignation from the ruling Likud party and the formation of the new, centrist Kadima movement. With pre-election opinion polls predicting an easy victory for Kadima on the back of Sharon's personal authority, the election campaign is now once more thrown into uncertainty, with both Labour and Likud sensing opportunities. The Ha'aretz newspaper, for one, predicted an end of an era this morning. 'Even if he does recover, he will have a very hard time convincing the public of his ability to serve four more years after undergoing two strokes in two and a half weeks', the paper said. 'One can cautiously say that it appears that the era in which Sharon stood at Israel's helm came to a tragic end on Wednesday' [4 January].

So Where Next?

The most immediate questions that arise out of Sharon's hospitalisation are: what will become of Kadima, and - more importantly for the longer term - what prospects for peace with the Palestinians?

The Kadima Conundrum: Last November, Sharon shocked the political establishment by announcing his resignation from Likud - a party he helped establish in 1973 - and immediately attacked right-wing 'Likudniks', accusing them of stifling his post-Gaza pullout plans. So the ground was laid for the formation of Kadima (see Israel: 22 November 2005: Premier's Resignation from Ruling Party Unleashes Political Upheaval in Israel). The Israeli public has expressed repeated confidence in the party, given the strongman reputation of its leader. Sharon carries the political and military zeal that many of the electorate favour, at a time of uncertainty with Palestinians and the emerging belief among Israelis that more occupied land must eventually be ceded to the Palestinians. However, for all its popular appeal and its potential electoral success, Kadima remains a one-man show. Waiting in the party's wings are Olmert and former Labour leader Shimon Peres, while a third possible candidate to fill the Sharon void is Justice Minister Tzipi Livni. All three candidates lack a credible national following, suggesting that the opposition Labour and Likud parties may be savouring an electoral resurgence. Should Kadima fail to retain the support that Sharon has obviously awarded the party, the election battle lines will once more be drawn between the left- and right-wing parties.

Middle East Peace Process: Despite the premier being a former general and perceived as a 'warhorse', Sharon's gradual acceptance of Palestinian statehood - albeit one on unilateral Israeli terms - had raised expectations among U.S. and European officials, as well as their Palestinian counterparts, of a slow and protracted move towards longer-term peace. The Gaza pullout was the first step in that direction. However, whether or not Sharon was willing to cede further Palestinian territory in the West Bank remains a contested issue; continued settlement expansion around Jerusalem and other areas of the West Bank probably indicates that he was not, but his personal influence was a sufficient driver of policy towards the Palestinians. In Sharon's absence, the lack of credible leadership alternatives may impact once more on the moribund peace process. Likud's avowed aim under Binyamin Netanyahu - not to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority (PA) - offers the least opportunity for peace. Labour under Amir Peretz certainly talks the language of dialogue, but has thus far been unable to convince the electorate of its winning credentials. The turmoil that a Sharon incapacitation or death would leave in its wake remains immense.

Outlook and Implications

Despite the premier's previous minor stroke, Israel without Sharon was not a prospect that received meaningful attention prior to the events of last night. Suddenly, the entire state's history appears to be infused with Sharon's personal history: whether as a military man who took part in all of Israel's wars with Arab states, or as a statesman who finally realised the value of ending the occupation of Gaza. However, as Sharon rightly suggested when founding Kadima, much more remains to be done. With Sharon turning 78 next month and now in obvious incapacitation, Israel's political future appears destined to lose one of its most colourful figures. The political system will inevitably move on, but the transition will not be free from uncertainty and turmoil.

Sharon's eventual exit from the political scene is bound to impact on Palestinians too. More immediately, Palestinian parliamentary elections scheduled for 25 January face suspension should Israel refuse to allow Palestinians living in Arab East Jerusalem the right to participate in the ballot. Sharon was expected to make a final decision on the matter in the coming days; whether or not Olmert is prepared to rule on such a contentious issue remains to be seen.

Contact: Raul Dary
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