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14/01/2011 | Looking for Clues to Brazil's New Foreign Policy

Frida Ghitis

When Brazilian voters went to the polls last year, they voted for continuity. In electing Dilma Rousseff, a 63-year-old technocrat who had never run for office before, they responded to the pleas of their popular outgoing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

 

Lula, as he is known, had made his preference clear. "A vote for Dilma is a vote for me," he told them, with both leaders promising that she would continue moving Brazil down the same path.

When it comes to foreign policy, Dilma, as Brazilians call their new president, has also said she will follow her predecessor's line. And yet, in the short time since her election and the even shorter time since taking office, a number of important clues have emerged about how Brazil's foreign policy will change in the coming years.

Under the presidency of the charismatic Lula, Brazil sharply raised its international profile, becoming a force in the global debate over major issues, including trade and climate change. Brazil, aspiring to a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council, became a much more active player in regional affairs, occasionally upsetting its neighbors, but undoubtedly increasing its influence. 

In the process of finding its own voice on the global stage, Brazil also alienated Washington and Europe. The chilling of relations with the U.S. and the EU came mostly over the subject of Iran and its nuclear program. Lula embraced Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, drawing the anger of those who sought to pressure the Iranian regime. The rift with Washington widened after Lula joined Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan innegotiating a nuclear fuel swap with Iran that the U.S., Russia and France rejected as counterproductive. Lula's warmth towards Iran, particularly following June 2009 elections when the Iranian regime was violently repressing domestic dissent, triggered criticism from many, including Brazilians who said Lula had lost his moral compass.

In her first speech as president, Rousseff said she would follow Brazil's diplomatic tradition, which she defined as "promoting peace, showing respect for nonintervention, defense of human rights and strengthening multilateralism." But the speech offered subtle hints of potential changes. The new president vowed to strengthen the country's bonds with "our brothers of Latin America," as well as to "preserve and deepen the relationship with the United States and the European Union." Then she added an interesting line, declaring that Brazil's tradition of working for peace "does not permit indifference to the existence of huge nuclear arsenals, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and transnational organized crime."

The point about nuclear arsenals could have been aimed at the U.S., Russia, China, France or perhaps Israel, but the rest of the sentence contained much to concern the Iranian leadership.

In fact, by the time Dilma delivered that speech, Iranian leaders had every reason to fear that the end of the Lula era might mark the beginning of a chill between Tehran and Brasilia. A month earlier, as president-elect, she gave an interview to the Washington Post in which she made what was possibly her first open criticism of her beloved predecessor. Dilma, the former Marxist guerrilla fighter who endured torture during the years she spent in a prison run by Brazil's military dictatorship in the 1970s, made it clear that her government would take a stand against torture and the oppression of women. "I do not endorse stoning," she declared, answering a question about Iran. "I do not agree with practices that have medieval characteristics [when it comes ] to women." In case any doubt was left, she added, "There is no nuance. I will not make any concessions on that matter."

Just a few weeks earlier, with Lula still in power, Brazil had abstained in a U.N. vote condemning Iran's human rights record. Looking back at that, Lula's former chief of staff stated unequivocally, "I do not agree with the way Brazil voted."

If Brazil tones down its support for Iran, that will go a long way to repairing relations with Washington. But U.S. officials had become concerned when Dilma turned down an invitation from President Barack Obama to visit the White House before taking office. She insists the move signified nothing, and that she was just extremely busy putting together her government, forcing her to decline every invitation. In fact, she told the Washington Post, she feels a special kinship with the American president, who running for office as a black man faced obstacles similar to those she faced running as a woman. She expressed "admiration for the election of President Obama," and said she would "try to forge closer ties with the U.S."

Her choice for foreign minister seems to support her rhetoric. Antonide Aguiar Patriota is a former ambassador to the U.S. and a man who has excellent relations with key American officials. The highly regarded Patriota is quoted in one of the leaked Wikileaks cablesexpressing doubts about the credibility of Iranian officials. 

But while Patriota will likely play a role in healing relations with traditional Western powers, another important member of her administration could exert pressure in the opposite direction. Her minister for "strategic affairs," Samuel Pinheiro Guimaraes, is a hardcore leftist intellectual who played an important role in shaping Lula's policy ofdistancing Brazil from the West. In his role as secretary-general of the Foreign Ministry in the previous administration, Guimaraes made quite an impression on American diplomats. A Wikileaks cable by the then-U.S. ambassador to Brazil describes him as "virulently anti-American, and anti-'first world' in general."

As the new Brazilian president becomes more comfortable and secure in her job, the role of her advisers in determining her policies will likely become more secondary. In the end, it is Dilma herself who will shape the core of Brazil's objectives in its interactions with the world.

For now, she says her priorities lie not overseas but at home, where she hopes to eradicate extreme poverty, which still afflicts 14 million Brazilians, and to develop critical infrastructure, neglected for decades.

Even if Dilma turns her attention inward, and even if she diverges from some of the policies of the man who made her election possible, Brazil will remain an important force on the international scene. After the efforts made by Lula, who built on those of his predecessor, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the country has become a regional leader and an important player on the global stage. Should Dilma decide to align her policies somewhat more closely to those of the United States, Brazil will still retain its newly found independence and continue to speak with its own voice. That means that disagreements -- with Washington and with Brazil's neighbors -- are all but assured. But those differences of opinion will unfold within a framework of generally positive relations, as Brazil seeks to secure its place as a power that promotes regional and global stability.

**Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday.

World Politics Review (Estados Unidos)

 


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