EU foreign policy adviser Javier Solana also is expected to take part in the meeting, which is designed to determine whether the West still has "political room to maneuver," in the words of German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The officials will share their findings with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice by phone.

It's likely to be a short conversation. From any angle, it appears that Iran once more has been able to make good on threats to resume nuclear activities without repercussions. For several months, Tehran has been testing the resolve of the West incrementally -- beginning last summer with the resumption of technical work at Isfahan, step by tiny step, without ever going quite so far as actual enrichment of uranium. Of late, Iran appears to have at least the tacit support of Russia and China in these efforts, and the West has few tools at its disposal to discourage Tehran.

The West appears reluctant to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council -- an option that has been under discussion for months -- and Britain has ruled out consideration of any military force, even following the removal of security seals from the facility at Natanz. Given the situations in Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian front, where Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's incapacitation has injected an uncomfortable dose of uncertainty, the United States is not really in a position to use military force anyway, and the Iranians are likely turning the moment to their advantage.

That likely made it rather easy for the head of Iran's Expediency Council, former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, to say on Wednesday that Iran has no fear of sanctions. Speaking to a gathering at Tehran University that marked Eid al-Adha, Rafsanjani warned that the United States cannot deter Iran from its nuclear goals and would regret any harsh moves against Tehran.

Barring the military option, the United States has no meaningful leverage against Iran: Economic sanctions are already in place, and any further such measures likely would not work because of Iran's status as a major oil producer. The countries to which it exports oil depend on Iran for their energy needs, and finding alternative suppliers would be out of the question -- especially while prices remain in the $60-$70 range.

Therefore, we expect that Western leaders will continue to bat at the idea of referring Iran to the Security Council -- itself a difficult undertaking, given the stance of Russia and China. However, a referral, contrary to popular perception, would not trigger another diplomatic crisis per se. The move would merely kick off yet another drawn-out process, not much different from that which has been unfolding since 2003. And in this environment, more tiny steps by Iran toward the nuclear goal would still likely ensue.

Russia has guaranteed the United States that it will not impede U.S. efforts to take Iran before the U.N. Security Council, a U.S. State Department official said Jan. 12. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice received a guarantee from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Russia would refrain from voting on a measure to move the issue of Tehran's nuclear program from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the U.N. Security Council. Russia's abstaining vote is good only for issues within the IAEA however, and does not imply how Russia, a traditional ally of Iran, would vote if the issue were to reach the U.N. Security Council. The Bush administration touted the agreement as a victory, and indicated that it will seek to secure a similar guarantee from China.

Iran completed the process of removing International Atomic Energy Agency seals at its nuclear sites at Natanz, Pars Trash and Farayand Technique, but it is far from being able to resume enrichment, a Western diplomat told Reuters on Jan. 12. The Iranians will first have to rebuild some 16 centrifuges at Natanz due to the large amount of corrosion, the source said.
Russia, the United States, the European Union and China will meet next week to discuss Iran's resumption of nuclear fuel-related activities, Itar-Tass reported Jan. 12, citing Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.