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14/01/2006 | Thailand and the Possible Terrorist Threat to Tourists

Stratfor Staff

Australia's national daily The Australian reported Jan. 11 that two terrorism experts believe militants could be targeting tourists in Thailand. Although these perceived threats are not new -- appearing from time to time due to continued unrest in three southern provinces -- they cannot be ignored, given the nature of the potential targets.

 

The main militant threat in Thailand has been the violence that has raged in the country's southernmost provinces for years, resulting in the death of more than 1,000 people. Although Thailand is predominantly Buddhist, Muslims make up the majority in the country's southernmost provinces of Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani. Violence in the restive region spiked in October 2004, when 78 Muslim men died while in custody of the Thai army following their arrests during a riot. Since then, frequent attacks have occurred against Buddhist and government targets, which Bangkok has blamed on militant Muslims. Although the violence has not spread outside the restive provinces along the Malaysian border, the area is very close to some of Thailand's most important resorts, including Phuket.

In the past, these attacks have taken the form of drive-by shootings, beheadings of Buddhists and bombings, targeting Thai police, government workers and civilians. The violence occasionally surges, and there are indications that militants are expanding their capabilities and target sets. To date, however, militants in southern Thailand have refrained from using suicide bombers to stage attacks. The Thai separatist group Bersatu has threatened to attack the tourist resorts in southern Thailand, but no attack has materialized, indicating that the threats are probably propaganda ploys rather than serious threats.


Bangkok has several times dodged the bullet of militant attacks. Thailand's capital has been used as a transit and staging point by Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and al Qaeda operatives, including Ramzi Yousef. Although Thai Muslim militant groups such as the Pattani United Liberation Organization have threatened to attack targets in Bangkok and tourist resorts, such an operation also has failed to materialize. With both militants and Westerners present, however, Bangkok certainly remains at risk.

Since 2001, the U.S. global war on terrorism has targeted militant groups in Southeast Asia, and Washington has provided more assistance to countries in the region that have militant elements. Pressure from local governments and U.S. counterterrorism efforts have resulted in a loss of command and control and guidance from the core leadership that held groups such as JI and the Philippines' Abu Sayyaf together. The recent killing of JI leaders, including bombmaker Azahari bin Husin, and the imprisonment of Abu Bakar Bashir, believed to be JI's spiritual leader and strategic commander, could have caused militants to migrate to Thailand from Indonesia. As militant groups splinter, their fringe elements have been known to branch off into other areas to conduct attacks of their own.

Should militant focus be shifting to tourists in Thailand, such action would likely be influenced by a foreign group such as JI or by Thai militants who worked with JI and have returned home from Indonesia. We have seen a broad shift in the jihadist world away from attacks against hard targets such as embassies to attacks against soft targets, including mass transit, hotels and restaurants. Such attacks are easier to carry out, require fewer resources and cause large, headline-making casualty counts. The success of the latest Bali bombing, coupled with the possible diffusion of militant activity in Southeast Asia, suggests an attack against a Thai resort could be closing in.

Security at resorts and hotels in southern Thailand has been increased over the past two years. Concrete barriers have been emplaced in front of hotels to thwart suicide car bombings and security guards are present on the properties. Thai police maintain a visible presence around the resorts, manning checkpoints and conducting vehicle checks. These measures will provide a degree of deterrence to more amateur militants, but are unlikely to prevent a committed jihadist suicide bomber from driving his attack home.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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