Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The move follows negotiations in rebel-held Kilinochchi between Norwegian peace envoy Eric Solheim and LTTE commander Velupillai Prabhakaran. 

Implications

Talks are expected to take place in Geneva (Switzerland) next month, and will mark the first time that the two sides have held dialogue since April 2003. 

Outlook

Both sides will be keen not to raise expectations too high, with the onus on salvaging the ceasefire rather than developing negotiations towards a peaceful solution.

Expectations Satisfied

Observers have been waiting for Norwegian peace envoy Eric Solheim's visit to Sri Lanka, to see some progress achieved. However, previous such missions by the Norwegian envoy have failed, ensuring that the outcome of this meeting was never assured, although the visit was regarded as a 'make or break' mission, in light of the escalation of violence since early-December. A failure to secure talks would point to a resumption of warfare, while dialogue would suggest that both sides were genuinely interested in averting such an outcome, with the possibility of ultimately negotiating a peace deal. As if to underline their seriousness, suspected LTTE cadres detonated five bombs in the capital Colombo on Tuesday (24 January). The explosions resulted in no injuries, unlike a recent series of targeted attacks against the military, suggesting that the operation was designed to act as a scare tactic, underlining the group's operational capacity.

The Next Step

Both sides have already shown a propensity to compromise, albeit just over the talks venue. The government has stuck to its line that it would not accept the LTTE's demand for talks - a first round, at least - in the Norwegian capital Oslo, although it simultaneously dropped its requirement that dialogue take place in an Asian city. Furthermore, the government appears to have overcome - at least temporarily - the opposition from its hardline political allies towards the further involvement of the Norwegians in the peace process. Questions have been raised regarding the effectiveness of the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), and the simple fact that there has been no dialogue for almost three years has thrown Norway's role in the situation into relief. However, it appears for now that its position is assured, although much clearly depends on the outcome of talks.

If anything, this outcome has enhanced the position of both the LTTE and the government. It emerged today that four MPs from the main opposition United National Party (UNP) have crossed the floor, impressed at the way in which President Mahinda Rajapakse has handled the situation. All were immediately rewarded with cabinet posts - an act that sent out a strong signal. It has also meant that Rajapakse can reduce his political dependency on parties like the Marxist nationalist Janatha Vemukthi Peramuna (JVP). Similarly, the LTTE has not found itself in a position where it has to compromise; it has conducted a large-scale campaign against the military and its critics, which has escalated since December, seemingly without reproach. At the same time, it has forced the government into a position where it has not pursued the hard line against the group that parties such as the JVP had demanded. Although the LTTE failed to secure its first choice Oslo as a talks venue, it has achieved what it was looking for - a situation in which it heads into dialogue from a position of relative strength.

Outlook and Implications

It has been stressed that these talks are aimed at discussing the state of the ceasefire rather than essentially picking up where peace dialogue stalled in April 2003, and it would therefore be premature to take an optimistic line on the situation. It is clear that the ceasefire's flaws, not least the monitoring mechanism, require redress. The problems have created a growing sense of mistrust between the two sides, to the point where some observers have questioned whether the situation can be salvaged. Ahead of the talks, it will be interesting to see if the LTTE continues its attacks - a course of action that could potentially derail dialogue and lose it further support among the international community.

Contact: Raul Dary

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