Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The Republicans are desperate to put a succession of scandals behind them and revive legislative momentum.

Implications

Boehner was preferred over favourite Roy Blunt as he has greater distance from DeLay and disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. The victor has promised to push through reforms and change the contentious lobbying culture.

Outlook

Restoring discipline among the Republicans in the House of Representatives is no small challenge and Boehner has big boots to fill. If the Republicans cannot restore their momentum and image they could lose their crucial majority come the mid-term elections later this year.

DeLay a Tough Act to Follow

The dramatic fall of Tom DeLay in 2005 left the Republican Party and the administration reeling. The key party figure was forced to stand down after an indictment over alleged campaign finance irregularities in the state of Texas. DeLay's problems deepened when his former close associate, lobbyist Jack Abramoff, pleaded guilty to corruption. Abramoff is not involved in the Texas campaign finance saga, but he may decide to testify against DeLay over separate matters. The latter has been criticised for accepting lavish hospitality and foreign trips from Abramoff.

DeLay was very important to the Republicans on many levels. He was extremely effective at cajoling and persuading his colleagues to fall into line on key votes. In this capacity he was crucial to the U.S. administration's legislative agenda. His methods were controversially heavy-handed. DeLay was also very important as a fundraiser and a link to the lobbying world, and it is these areas that have got him into trouble. The campaign finance and Abramoff scandals have seen Republicans falling over themselves to distance themselves from the former lobbyist and DeLay. The latter is said to remain a key figure behind the scenes, but his influence is clearly diminished.

Boehner Defeats Favourite

The Republicans' acute discomfort over the scandals resulted in a surprise yesterday. Roy Blunt of Missouri, House Republican whip, looked almost certain to succeed DeLay, but after failing narrowly in the first round to win an outright majority, his support melted away in the second round in favour of Boehner, an eight-term Congressman from south-western Ohio. Boehner had been regarded as distant second favourite.

Blunt, who was DeLay's interim replacement, was felt by many to be too close to DeLay, and he had also accepted funds from Abramoff in the past. Had they selected him, the Republicans risked criticism for failing to recognise the need for change and renewal.

Boehner said yesterday that he would pursue the key Republican priorities determinedly and clean up practices in Congress. He is unlikely to press for a change of policy direction from the administration at the White House. Critics point out that while Boehner has no links to Abramoff, he nonetheless has close relations with the lobbying world. Democrats argue that he is merely more of the same and that the Republicans are not willing to embrace real change.

Outlook and Implications

Boehner has a very tough year ahead of him. There is a raft of controversial legislation the White House wants to pass, and at the end of the year Congress faces mid-term elections. At present there are 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats and one independent in the House, and the majority could conceivably tip towards the Democrats. This is an unlikely outcome given the extent of Republican control, but even a reduced Republican majority would make the legislative situation much more difficult. One of the key issues for voters will be how far the Republicans have answered concerns over the influence and activities of lobbyists. Boehner has been one of the more ardent advocates of reform in the wake of the DeLay and Abramoff scandals, but sceptics doubt that any substantial change will result.