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01/06/2011 | Argentina's presidential race - Will she, won't she?

The Economist Staff

The unusual coyness of Cristina Fernández

 

FOR months most Argentines have assumed that Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will be re-elected as their president in a vote due in October. Thanks to a strong economy, a hapless opposition and a wave of sympathy after the sudden death last year of Néstor Kirchner, her husband and predecessor, her candidacy seems unstoppable. The only cause for doubt is that Ms Fernández has not yet said that she will run. With just a month left for candidates to announce, she is keeping the country guessing. “I’m not dying to be president again,” she said on May 12th. “I’ve given everything there is to give.”

The commentariat in Buenos Aires has dismissed Ms Fernández’s indecision as an artful political tactic—just as it was in 2007, when she and Mr Kirchner waited until the last possible moment to announce which of them would run. The longer she dallies, says Sergio Berensztein of Torcuato Di Tella University, the longer she can remain above the electoral fray in her popular roles as president and widow. Luis Tonelli, a columnist for Debate magazine, calls it a “clamour operation”, intended to prompt a groundswell of public demand for her candidacy. And Manuel Mora y Araujo of Ipsos, a polling company, sees it as a warning to Hugo Moyano, the head of Argentina’s umbrella trade union: if he does not reduce his demands for political influence, Ms Fernández could quit, leaving a far less labour-friendly successor.

The president has every reason to seek another term. Argentina’s economy is still booming, fuelled by high prices for a bumper harvest of soyabeans and the rapid growth of neighbouring Brazil. According to the UN’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Argentina’s GDP expanded by 8.4% last year; forecasters expect 5-6% in 2011. Mr Kirchner’s death boosted his wife’s approval rating by 25 points. And while she grieves—she has swapped glamorous designer outfits for simpler black attire, and often breaks down during public events—any criticism of her sounds mean-spirited.

She has also shown political agility. In March and April she swerved left, criticising NATO’s bombing of Libya, and using the state’s shareholdings through the nationalised pension system to try to put more government directors on the boards of big private companies. Those moves helped dissuade Fernando Solanas, a leftist filmmaker who stood for president in 2007, from running again. She then tacked to the centre, starting a squabble with the unpopular Mr Moyano, whom she accused of extortion after a series of strikes.

Several other potential opponents have dropped out. Julio Cobos, the vice-president, who turned on her during a 2008 tax fight with farmers, has said he will not run. Mauricio Macri is standing for a second term as mayor of Buenos Aires at an election to be held on the same day as the presidential vote. And Francisco de Narváez, a businessman who beat Mr Kirchner in a congressional election in 2009, cannot legally stand, since he was born abroad to foreign parents. That leaves only Ricardo Alfonsín, the son of a former president; Elisa Carrió, an eternal anti-establishment candidate; and possibly Eduardo Duhalde, Mr Kirchner’s predecessor as president. Mr Alfonsín currently polls in the teens and the other two are in single digits.

But might it be that Ms Fernández’s ambivalence is not in fact feigned? Many of the hard decisions she has put off will soon have to be taken. The government has doctored the inflation index since 2007, keeping the official rate around 10% while prices have risen two to three times as fast. Cleaning up those numbers would force her to cool the economy to reduce inflation. Argentina’s budget surplus has vanished, and its trade surplus has been artificially boosted by curbs on imports of drugs, processed food and cars. The rate of investment remains below the 2007 figure.

She also has personal reasons not to run: she has developed high blood pressure, and her daughter is said to be keen for her mother to step down. But the president has been a political animal all her life. And she doubtless wants to see the continuation of the leftist, populist policies she and her husband have implemented. As she said in December to Olga Wornat, her biographer and a longtime friend, “This is what Néstor would want me to do.”

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House