Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Elections in the impoverished francophone country were never expected to pass off without incident, but the violence was of a lower scale than first feared.

Implications

The United Nations, whose 9,500-strong peacekeeping force remains present in the country, expressed its satisfaction with the national vote in which Haitian citizens actively engaged in the democratic process, despite isolated violent incidents.

Outlook

Multiple challenges face Haiti's new government, which will need to obtain long-term support from the international community if some form of political stability is to be achieved. The presence of former president Rene Preval as the apparent frontrunner complicates efforts to heal rifts in Haitian society; given his historic links to ousted ex-head of state Aristide, he is unlikely to be the leader to unite the divided former French colony, which remains the poorest nation in the Americas.

Still Hard Times in Haiti

Polling stations buckled under the weight of hordes of Haitian voters heading to the polls yesterday to pick a new president and 130 legislators to fill the National Assembly. Delayed opening fuelled tensions in the explosive Caribbean country, which has been governed by interim prime minister Gerard Latortue since elected president Jean-Bertrand Aristide was ousted from office in February 2004. High turnout represented a boost to Haitian democracy, although this brought its own casualties with four individuals injured in the crush at a polling station in the north-western town of Gros Mornes. In the same area, a police officer and a civilian reportedly died of gunshot wounds, according to a local radio report. During a stampede at one of the voting centres in the capital Port-au-Prince, one man died of asphyxiation while another died following a suspected heart attack. After opening behind schedule, polling stations stayed open late to allow queues of voters to cast their ballots, the results of which are anticipated in the next three days. 

Exit polls named ex-president Rene Preval, who served between 1996 and 2000, as the frontrunner. While distancing himself from ousted former president Aristide by running as an independent, Preval's background as a one-time Aristide associate is well known. He boasts support within Haiti's urban slums where violent clashes have contributed to the need for a United Nations (UN) presence (see Haiti: 7 February 2006: Election 2006: Haitians Finally Go to the Polls Amid Fears of Escalation in Violence). A proliferation of serious crimes such as kidnapping and fierce clashes in urban centres led the interim government and the Provisional Electoral Council (PEC) to delay electoral proceedings while the UN stabilisation mission (MINUSTAH) struggled to shore up security in advance of the national vote (see Haiti: 3 January 2006: Election 2006: Vote Rescheduled Yet Again in Haiti). The outcome of the vote remains unpredictable due to logistical limitations facing polling companies. Prominent contenders in the 33-horse race include another ex-president Leslie Manigat, who was ousted in 1998, and industrialist Charles Henry Baker. Recent surveys gave Preval a 27-point advantage on the aforementioned politicians.

Outlook and Implications

Political stability continues to elude Haiti, two decades after the Jean-Claude 'Baby Doc' Duvalier dictatorship came to a close. For example, former president Aristide was twice forcefully removed from power, firstly by a military coup eight months after taking office in 1990. Political and security risks remain high in Haiti - both are pegged at 4.5 by Global Insight - as it awaits the election result. A second-round vote, which would take place on 19 March if none of the candidates poll more than 50% of support, cannot be ruled out. Operational difficulties faced at polling stations did result in some loss of life and social unrest, but then the day was never likely to pass without incident. Considering both the recent and more distant history of the nation that shares the island of Hispaniola with the Dominican Republic, the situation could have been much worse. Speaking to local press, Juan Gabriel Valdés, the UN's special representative of Secretary General Kofi Annan, expressed his satisfaction with the high voter turn-out, a sign of enhanced popular participation in an impoverished nation where some 77% live below the poverty line. A first-round victory is the preferable outcome as it would provide much-needed legitimacy to the new government. Whoever forms the next administration is unlikely to survive without international help. The UN prematurely withdrew its peacekeeping force in 2001, some six years after it was deployed, but little progress had been made in establishing the institutional framework for political stability. A long-term international commitment is required, which constitutes the major challenge for the incoming government, competing with higher-profile trouble spots in Latin America and the Middle East for funds for perennially forgotten Haiti. Only with international support, and readmission into the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), does Haiti stand a realistic chance of building investor confidence and getting help to lift itself out of persistent poverty.

Contact: Raul Dary

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raul.dary@globalinsight.com

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