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15/07/2011 | Argentina Tries Delusion to Fight Inflation

Frida Ghitis

A century ago, Argentina was one of the world's richest countries. Since then, Buenos Aires has given the world a primer on how to derail, disrupt and mismanage economic growth, with successive governments finding new and creative ways to stop prosperity in its tracks.

 

Now President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is adding a page to the nation's playbook, and this time, the main theme is deliberate denial of reality. With the specter of inflation threatening to overheat and burn Argentina's economic recovery, Fernandez  enacted a most peculiar strategy to combat the problem: denying there is one.

In recent years, the administrations of Fernandez and her deceased husband and predecessor, former President Néstor Kirchner, have gone to extraordinary lengths to conceal the steep rise in prices. The most troubling of all their moves came just a few days ago, when the government filed criminal charges against economists whose work shows the true magnitude of inflation in Argentina.

The government stands by its official inflation figures, including a total of 9.7 percent for 2010. But private economists agree the real number is closer to 25 percent, giving Argentina what is by some counts the second-highest inflation rate in the world, behind Venezuela.

Argentina has long served as a test case for economic theories and as a treasure trove of research for economic historians. The many fascinating personalities who have served as the country's president have tried a variety of original approaches to propel growth. In fact, there was no reason Argentina should not have maintained its place on the list of the world's wealthiest countries. It enjoys plentiful natural resources and a well-educated population. Over the decades, social, political and economic experiments have often succeeded in producing a few years of prosperity -- usually followed by disaster.

One of those disasters came in 2001, when Buenos Aires defaulted on $95 billion in debt, the largest sovereign debt default in history, resulting in social unrest and a deep and painful recession that slashed living standards for millions of Argentines. The ensuing political crisis set off a dizzying revolving door in the Casa Rosada, the presidential palace, with six presidents holding office in a period of little more than a month.

Kirchner, previously an obscure governor from Patagonia, was the one left standing when the dust cleared. His brand of strong-armed, left-leaning, IMF-bashing populism helped right the ship of state. But as the economy started to gain strength, price increases threatened a return to turbulence. Argentineans had painful memories of hyperinflation from earlier failed economic experiments. Kirchner, whose polarizing brand of politics required high levels of inflation-stoking social spending to maintain popular support, met with retailers and producers and essentially ordered them not to raise prices. The president blamed price increases on wealthy business interests he accused of engaging in speculation and other practices that caused prices to rise, even as he insisted inflation was not rising that fast.

In 2007, when the government's own statistics agency, INDEC, refused to lower its inflation numbers, Kirchner replaced its top professional staff with political appointees who quickly produced the single-digit figures the government wanted.

Graciela Bevacqua, who headed the inflation-measuring operation until she was humiliatingly demoted, claims she was persecuted relentlessly until she finally quit in 2009. By that time, the accomplished statistician was working a menial job in the library of the Economics Ministry. Her lawyer says she refused orders to alter her figures, and as a result became the target of a Machiavellian effort to discredit her personal and professional life.

Kirchner's transparent effort to manipulate a crucial economic indicator sparked sharp criticism and sent businesses and investors to the private sector in search of reliable figures. Independent analysts -- including Bevacqua, who continued working with the help of students and issues her figures free of charge -- agreed that the real inflation rate was at least double the official government number.

By then, the government had gone too far to back down from its unscrupulous tinkering with a process that requires freedom from political interference. Too much was at stake.

When Fernandez succeeded her husband as president, she continued the inflation cover-up. Argentina's worst-kept secret had become indispensable. Admitting manipulation would have proven politically -- and fiscally -- costly. Argentina has essentially robbed its bondholders of billions of dollars, as some 25 percent of the country's debt is indexed to inflation. By cooking the books, the government has saved more than $2 billion in interest payments to its lenders.

Now, with a presidential election scheduled for October, the government is fighting even harder to defend its fantasy figures. Fernandez, seeking another term, wants to do away with those pesky economists whose inflation figures everyone believes. The last thing she wants ahead of the vote is a scandal, even if the truth about the government's manipulation of economic statistics is well-known.

Not only would the manipulation put a dark stain on the Kirchners legacy, but the fact that inflation is climbing out of control could cost Fernandez Kirchner support, particularly because she is running on a record of strong economic growth.

Earlier this year, Fernandez's feared enforcer, Commerce Secretary Guillermo Moreno, instructed a dozen private financial firms to explain their inflation-measuring methodology to the INDEC, which promptly declared the statistical methods flawed. Moreno imposed penalties on seven of them, including Graciela Bevacqua, who says she can't afford the $120,000 fine.

The opposition accused the government of intimidation, abuse of power and violations of human rights. But the effort to silence professional economists did not stop. Most recently, Moreno upped the ante, filing criminal charges against an economic consulting firm, MyS Consultores. The government charges that MyS disseminated false information to benefit itself and its clients.

On the surface, it might seem as if the move would invite more scrutiny of the government's phony figures, to the president's detriment. But Fernandez Kirchner, who leads in the polls, could actually profit from a public spat with rich investors.

Over the years, the Kirchners proved masterful at playing popular opinion against lenders, bankers and economists. Fernandez could score another political victory if pressed to defend her manipulation of inflation figures. But that victory would make it easier for the government to ignore the looming threat inflation poses to the economy. Argentina's government appears to have found, yet again, an original way to derail the country's prosperity.

**Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday.

World Politics Review (Estados Unidos)

 


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