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18/02/2006 | India: Hopes for Nuclear -- and Geopolitical -- Power

Stratfor Staff

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is hoping to get a strategic U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear deal off the ground when U.S. President George W. Bush travels to the subcontinent March 1.

 

Summary

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is hoping to get a strategic U.S.-Indian civilian nuclear deal off the ground when U.S. President George W. Bush travels to the subcontinent March 1. Prior to the Bush visit, French President Jacques Chirac will be in New Delhi, where he will throw his support behind India's inclusion in the nuclear elite and its access to civil nuclear technologies. As more and more opportunities open up for India, the Singh administration will acquire more breathing room in pursuing its broad realignment strategy with Washington.

Analysis

France wants to end a ban on nuclear-technology exports to India to allow French manufacturers to sell supplies to India, French President Jacques Chirac told India Today ahead of his Feb. 19 trip to New Delhi. Chirac's visit comes ahead of U.S. President George W. Bush's first official visit to India, slated for March 1.

India has been busy laying the groundwork for Bush to sign a civilian nuclear deal with India that would allow the South Asian giant to acquire access to civil nuclear technology, including fuel and reactors. With its population of a billion-plus, India is expected to see its demand for oil to grow 5 percent this fiscal year, with no signs of dropping in the near future. Energy-hungry India desperately wants the nuclear deal to go through but is struggling to fully accede to Washington's core demand to separate its military and civil nuclear facilities and impose International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards to allay the Nuclear Suppliers Group's (NSG) proliferation concerns.

India is willing to separate its civil and military facilities, but does not agree to the extent of international inspections to which the United States insists on subjecting the country's facilities, especially its military sites, for obvious national security reasons. Since India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty or the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, it is held accountable only to the restrictions to which it agrees, giving it more room to negotiate on the standing deal with the United States. This bump in the road, however, has placed a cloud of ambiguity over Bush's upcoming visit.

Washington is also still keen on using the civilian nuclear deal as a lever to distance India from Tehran's sphere of influence. The United States learned the hard way that applying blatant pressure to comply with U.S. demands does not work nicely in a country like India, where the government stirred up a storm over U.S. Ambassador to India David C. Mulford's remarks that India had better agree to report Iran to the U.N. Security Council (UNSC), or it could kiss its civilian nuclear deal goodbye.

In keeping with India's foreign policy of non-alignment, the Singh administration has made it clear that despite its public siding with Washington to pressure Tehran, New Delhi will not sacrifice relations with its Iranian ally in the face of U.S. pressure. Singh told the Indian parliament Feb. 17 that India is interested in developing closer ties with Iran in spite of New Delhi's support for referring Iran to the UNSC, and emphasized that only diplomacy is capable of resolving the Iranian nuclear crisis. Publicly supporting Washington while quietly assuring Tehran is India's method of setting the right political atmosphere for Bush's visit. As Washington is losing momentum on the Iranian front because of Russia and China's vested interest in preventing the United States from using military means to handle the situation, New Delhi is sensing that more time will be needed to work the kinks out of the civilian nuclear deal.

Chirac's statements in support of India's civilian nuclear program provide New Delhi with a new impetus to accelerate the U.S. deal. Once the ban is lifted, India will be allowed to strike deals with potential nuclear fuel suppliers in the NSG. France is looking to tap into the Indian market to allow companies such as Paris-based Areva SA to supply nuclear plants. The United States has not built a new power reactor since 1973, but nuclear power never went out of fashion in France. Consequently, French third-generation nuclear power reactors tend to be safer and cheaper, and they produce more electricity but not as much extractable plutonium for use in a weapons program. For pure civilian and economic purposes, it makes perfect sense for India to buy into French nuclear technology.

The United States also is eager to secure its own contracts with India to supply nuclear plants, but India will likely favor maintaining a variety of suppliers once it officially joins the nuclear elite. As the Iran episode has demonstrated, India is not interested in being pushed around by the United States; it much prefers performing its traditional balancing act among the big power players.

That said, the Singh administration is fully cognizant of the benefits India will acquire from strengthening its relationship with the United States while the Bush administration is eager to do so. Besides the economic and military boons of this Indo-U.S. partnership, India will be able to contain regional rivals Pakistan and China with U.S. backing and acquire greater political clout in the international arena. While the Indian lobby in Washington is aggressively working to make the civilian nuclear deal budge in the U.S. Congress, the Singh administration will seek to ensure that India maintains enough wiggle room as it enhances its strategic position regarding Washington.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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