Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
  En Parrilla Medio Ambiente Sociedad High Tech Contacto
Frente Externo  
 
22/10/2011 | Libya and Tunisia: two faces of the Arab spring

Editorial

Two divergent paths of the Arab spring are clearly visible today. We are not at the end of it, but at the very start.

 

Two divergent paths of the Arab spring are clearly visible today. In Libya, a sclerotic, violent and dictatorial regime fought it out to the bitter end, long after it knew it was all over. Yemen and Syria have staggered down the same blood-strewn track. While just across the Libyan border,Tunisia is just about to hold its first elections. It has all of the advantages and few of the disadvantages of its neighbour. It has an educated base, a secular tradition, there are no tribal or ethnic fissures and if Rached Ghannouchi's brand of Islamic democrats establish first a genuine coalition transitional government and then a workable parliamentary system, it will be an extraordinary achievement and shining light for the region.

Libya today is far behind that point. While Nato's top commander, Admiral James Stavridis, called the outcome a good day for Nato, and a great day for Libya, senior British officials are more sanguine and modest about the effects of intervention. When presented with the opportunity to crow, they talk of Libya as a bespoke intervention, impossible to have been achieved without the backing of the Arab League. And if things now start to go wrong? We will be there as spectators not actors. They are sober for good reason. The cobbled together intervention – airpower from Nato, arms, cash and special forces from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – has left its political marks on the ground. In Tripoli, Qatari-backed Islamists of Abdelhakim Belhaj face off against the Zintan brigades. Misrata's brigades, which bore the brunt of the misery in the city's siege and claim to have done the bulk of the fighting, not least in the last battle of Sirte, are fiercely independent of everyone, not least Benghazi. There are regional rivalries and tribal ones. Almost everyone seems to have it in for the Saharan Tuareg.

The acid test will be how many of these militias hand in their weapons or submit to a unified military command. The signs here are not encouraging. When it came to finding Gaddafi's caches of weapons in the final two months of the war, the militias hauled the booty back to their home towns, not to Libya's provisional government. The doubts cast rightly on the claim that Gaddafi was shot in "crossfire", rather than summarily executed in the back of an ambulance, will be the very least of it, if in a few months' time Libya degenerates into a shooting gallery where old scores are settled.

One of the deepest social cleavages is not military at all, but educational. It is the disconnect between the products of Libya's bankrupt education system, where excellence was determined by reciting Gaddafi's homespun inanities, and Libyans educated abroad. With their PowerPoint presentations about governance and state-building might, they might as well have just landed from Mars. If there ever was a time for unity it is when Gaddafi's body is lowered into the ground today. It will be an achievement if that unity of purpose is found without further loss of life. The odds are against it.

In Tunisia, the stakes are no less high, because if this experiment fails, a second tier of the old ruling elite would create its own "managed" simulacrum and the Arab spring would whither. Egypt's ruling military council is showing signs of dabbling in this option. Tunisia could stop them. The election tomorrow will not only be the first step in creating institutions which can gain the trust of all citizens – a constitution, a parliament, a free judiciary. It will also roadtest the claim that political pluralism can be navigated with an Islamist party at the helm. The Islamist movement is a broad church ranging from global jihadis, Salafis, Hamas and Hizbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to Recep Erdogan's AKP in Turkey. Mr Ghannouchi's Ennahda lies at the liberal end of this spectrum. If it succeeds, it would provide the most authentic, endogenous political model that the Arab world has seen in generations. We are not at the end of the Arab spring but at the very start.

The Guardian (Reino Unido)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 1 to 10 of 1265 )
fecha titulo
20/04/2013 Is Libya’s Energy Future Green?
06/12/2012 U.S.-Approved Arms for Libya Rebels Fell Into Jihadis’ Hands
01/11/2012 'Troubling' Surveillance Before Benghazi Attack
13/09/2012 Opinion - Libya’s spiral of violence
13/09/2012 US - Congressman: Embassy attack in Libya was coordinated
12/09/2012 Libya - U.S. ambassador to Libya killed in Benghazi attack
12/09/2012 Libia - Muere el embajador estadounidense en Libia tras el asalto al consulado en Bengasi
06/07/2012 Africa - Libya’s election takes oil-rich nation closer to democratic rule after decades of Gadhafi rule
10/05/2012 Libyan missiles on the loose
03/05/2012 The Continuing Threat of Libyan Missiles


Otras Notas del Autor
fecha
Título
14/12/2022|
20/10/2022|
30/09/2022|
25/05/2022|
28/12/2021|
26/08/2020|
27/06/2020|
01/06/2020|
29/02/2020|
11/12/2018|
06/11/2018|
05/11/2018|
15/10/2018|
17/09/2018|
10/09/2018|
08/09/2018|
05/09/2018|
09/06/2018|
08/06/2018|
31/05/2018|
31/05/2018|
28/05/2018|
18/08/2017|
20/06/2017|
09/05/2017|
08/05/2017|
08/05/2017|
07/05/2017|
28/04/2017|
25/07/2016|
24/07/2016|
16/07/2016|
10/07/2016|
09/07/2016|
11/06/2016|
29/04/2016|
09/04/2016|
04/12/2015|
13/09/2015|
11/05/2015|
30/03/2015|
17/12/2014|
17/12/2014|
25/11/2014|
22/11/2014|
17/11/2014|
16/11/2014|
16/11/2014|
24/10/2014|
23/10/2014|
19/03/2014|
30/12/2013|
27/12/2013|
02/11/2013|
27/10/2013|
27/10/2013|
19/10/2013|
14/10/2013|
12/10/2013|
23/09/2013|
23/09/2013|
22/09/2013|
22/09/2013|
16/09/2013|
16/09/2013|
25/08/2013|
22/08/2013|
17/08/2013|
15/08/2013|
29/07/2013|
24/07/2013|
20/07/2013|
12/07/2013|
05/03/2013|
30/12/2012|
06/11/2012|
13/09/2012|
08/09/2012|
31/08/2012|
29/08/2012|
08/08/2012|
07/08/2012|
06/08/2012|
05/08/2012|
05/08/2012|
01/08/2012|
01/08/2012|
31/07/2012|
31/07/2012|
30/07/2012|
30/07/2012|
30/07/2012|
29/07/2012|
29/07/2012|
29/07/2012|
26/07/2012|
25/07/2012|
25/07/2012|
25/07/2012|
23/07/2012|
23/07/2012|
22/07/2012|
19/07/2012|
10/07/2012|
10/07/2012|
09/07/2012|
07/07/2012|
06/07/2012|
02/07/2012|
02/07/2012|
01/07/2012|
28/06/2012|
26/06/2012|
26/06/2012|
25/06/2012|
18/06/2012|
16/06/2012|
09/06/2012|
24/05/2012|
18/05/2012|
02/05/2012|
29/04/2012|
26/04/2012|
21/04/2012|
26/03/2012|
25/03/2012|
25/03/2012|
20/03/2012|
20/03/2012|
19/03/2012|
19/03/2012|
19/03/2012|
19/03/2012|
12/03/2012|
12/03/2012|
11/03/2012|
11/03/2012|
11/03/2012|
11/03/2012|
06/03/2012|
06/03/2012|
29/02/2012|
29/02/2012|
29/02/2012|
26/02/2012|
26/02/2012|
26/02/2012|
26/02/2012|
26/02/2012|
26/02/2012|
25/02/2012|
25/02/2012|
25/02/2012|
22/02/2012|
22/02/2012|
22/02/2012|
21/02/2012|
21/02/2012|
21/02/2012|
24/10/2011|
23/10/2011|
21/10/2011|
16/10/2011|
29/09/2011|
29/09/2011|
28/09/2011|
26/09/2011|
07/09/2011|
07/09/2011|
05/09/2011|
05/09/2011|
03/09/2011|
03/09/2011|
30/08/2011|
30/08/2011|
30/08/2011|
30/08/2011|
16/08/2011|
16/08/2011|
10/08/2011|
01/08/2011|
31/07/2011|
24/07/2011|
20/07/2011|
20/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
17/07/2011|
12/07/2011|
12/07/2011|
11/07/2011|
11/07/2011|
11/07/2011|
11/07/2011|
11/07/2011|
04/07/2011|
04/07/2011|
02/07/2011|
02/07/2011|
02/07/2011|
02/07/2011|
02/07/2011|
02/07/2011|
19/06/2011|
19/06/2011|
19/05/2011|
19/05/2011|
16/05/2011|
16/05/2011|
10/05/2011|
10/05/2011|
09/05/2011|
09/05/2011|
09/05/2011|
09/05/2011|
08/05/2011|
08/05/2011|
29/04/2011|
29/04/2011|
21/04/2011|
21/04/2011|
16/04/2011|
13/04/2011|
13/04/2011|
13/04/2011|
12/04/2011|
11/04/2011|
10/04/2011|
09/04/2011|
07/04/2011|
03/04/2011|
31/03/2011|
23/03/2011|
19/03/2011|
26/02/2011|
23/02/2011|
23/02/2011|
21/02/2011|
21/02/2011|
21/02/2011|
18/02/2011|
10/02/2011|
30/01/2011|
30/01/2011|
29/01/2011|
23/01/2011|
21/01/2011|
17/01/2011|
16/01/2011|
12/01/2011|
12/01/2011|
06/01/2011|
04/01/2011|
03/01/2011|
02/01/2011|
31/12/2010|
29/12/2010|
28/12/2010|
26/12/2010|
26/12/2010|
19/12/2010|
18/12/2010|
13/12/2010|
07/12/2010|
19/11/2010|
17/11/2010|
17/11/2010|
31/10/2010|
26/10/2010|
25/10/2010|
24/10/2010|
19/10/2010|
04/10/2010|
30/09/2010|
30/09/2010|
19/09/2010|
17/09/2010|
13/09/2010|
13/08/2010|
11/08/2010|
11/08/2010|
07/08/2010|
02/08/2010|
01/08/2010|
01/08/2010|
01/08/2010|
30/07/2010|
30/07/2010|
30/07/2010|
22/07/2010|
18/07/2010|
16/07/2010|
11/07/2010|
11/07/2010|
11/07/2010|
09/07/2010|
08/07/2010|
07/07/2010|
01/07/2010|
29/06/2010|
23/06/2010|
22/06/2010|
20/06/2010|
20/06/2010|
20/06/2010|
19/06/2010|
17/06/2010|
16/06/2010|
15/06/2010|
14/06/2010|
13/06/2010|
05/06/2010|
03/06/2010|
02/06/2010|
26/05/2010|
15/05/2010|
15/05/2010|
13/05/2010|
13/05/2010|
12/05/2010|
06/05/2010|
03/05/2010|
02/05/2010|
30/04/2010|
24/04/2010|
24/04/2010|
07/04/2010|
06/04/2010|
05/04/2010|
03/04/2010|
25/03/2010|
24/03/2010|
18/03/2010|
04/03/2010|
21/02/2010|
16/02/2010|
16/02/2010|
22/01/2010|
22/01/2010|
21/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
14/01/2010|
14/01/2010|
13/01/2010|
12/01/2010|
28/12/2009|
21/12/2009|
19/12/2009|
08/12/2009|
08/12/2009|
01/12/2009|
01/12/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
22/11/2009|
22/11/2009|
08/11/2009|
16/10/2009|
13/09/2009|
28/08/2009|
27/08/2009|
26/08/2009|
17/08/2009|
16/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
12/08/2009|
12/08/2009|
09/08/2009|
09/08/2009|
08/08/2009|
08/08/2009|
08/08/2009|
08/08/2009|
07/08/2009|
07/08/2009|
24/07/2009|
24/07/2009|
23/07/2009|
23/07/2009|
21/07/2009|
21/07/2009|
17/07/2009|
17/07/2009|
17/07/2009|
17/07/2009|
17/07/2009|
03/04/2009|
01/04/2009|
31/03/2009|
31/03/2009|
27/03/2009|
27/03/2009|
26/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
17/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
14/03/2009|
14/03/2009|
14/03/2009|
14/03/2009|
08/03/2009|
08/03/2009|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House