President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner of Argentina cruised to re-election on Sunday, riding a wave of economic prosperity in her quest to continue the political dynasty begun by her late husband, former President Néstor Kirchner.
As recently as two years ago, Mrs. Kirchner had seemed a
long shot to win a second four-year term. Her combative style, highlighted by a
heated dispute over agricultural export taxes, sent her approval ratings below
30 percent. Economists predicted doom for the subsidy-heavy economic model
first orchestrated by Mr. Kirchner to help the country recover from its
economic collapse in 2001; rising inflation and accusations of doctored
economic statistics clouded her prospects.
But on Sunday, one year after her husband died of a heart
attack, Mrs. Kirchner, Argentina’s first elected female president, completed a
remarkable political turnaround. With about 81 percent of voting stations
tabulated, she was leading with about 53 percent of the vote, while her closest
challenger, Hermes Binner of the Broad Progressive Front, had about 17 percent.
The ample margin would be enough to avoid a runoff and be the widest victory
since democracy was restored in 1983.
In a speech late Sunday in Plaza de Mayo, Mrs. Kirchner
called for national unity and thanked the “multitudes of young people” who
supported her.
The economy emerged as the central issue on voters’
minds. By many measures Argentina is booming: the economy is expected to grow
by 8 percent this year, the fastest growth in Latin America; employment has
reached record levels; and the poverty rate has been cut by more than half
since 2007, the government said. The country continues to benefit from heavy
government spending, high commodity prices and strong demand from China for its
agricultural products.
Still, by re-electing Mrs. Kirchner, 58, voters seemed
willing to look past some troubling signs. Inflation has soared to over 20
percent in the past year, second only to Venezuela’s among major Latin American
economies, economists said. And the government has continued to govern with a
heavy hand and little tolerance for opponents, including among the news media.
Opposition candidates tried to seize on those issues but
gained little traction with voters.
“This election really seemed to defy the normal rules of
politics,” said Michael Shifter, the president of the Inter-American Dialogue
in Washington. “But that is what happens when things are going well in the
economy and there is a dearth of alternatives.”
The Argentine government has continued to insist that the
inflation rate is less than 10 percent, but the International Monetary Fund and
private economists say the government data is unreliable. The issue has
resonated less with voters because salaries have roughly kept pace with
inflation, thanks to the Peronist government’s tight relations with union
chieftains.
Mrs. Kirchner, a former senator, was first elected
president in 2007 with promises to continue the economic model employed by her
husband, who steered the country out of financial collapse but decided not to
run for re-election, supporting his wife’s candidacy instead.
Mr. Kirchner had hewed to a strategy of keeping
Argentina’s currency, the peso, heavily devalued from its 1990s’ levels, a move
that made exports more competitive and spurred growth in manufacturing. But it
also entailed subsidies for food and fuel and spending on social programs to
win lower-income voters.
The Kirchners were a political power couple that drew
comparisons to Bill and Hillary Clinton. Mrs. Kirchner’s victory in 2007
spurred talk that the Kirchners would alternate as president for another 12
years.
With her emotional speeches and designer suits, Mrs.
Kirchner appealed to the masses, especially the working classes, the power base
her husband had built.
During her campaign in 2007, Mrs. Kirchner vowed to
re-engage Argentina with the international community, which Mr. Kirchner had
largely eschewed while in office. He cut off talks with the International
Monetary Fund after Argentina defaulted on $95 billion in foreign debts.
But the promised détente did not materialize, and foreign
investors stayed away, especially after signs emerged that the government’s
statistical agency was doctoring economic data, including the inflation rate.
As a result, Argentina has remained largely unable to
borrow abroad, and it receives relatively little foreign direct investment,
lagging behind Colombia and Peru and receiving less than half the amount
flowing into Chile, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for
Latin America and the Caribbean.
“Argentina is kind of an outlier in the region — a
post-authoritarian, democratic government that has not embraced the principles
of macroeconomic stability in the same way that Chile, Brazil and Uruguay have
done,” said Cynthia Arnson, director of the Latin American program at the
Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “That has been a huge disincentive to
foreign investment.”
While Brazil’s star has risen, Argentina’s regional and
international profile “has diminished dramatically” under the Kirchners, said
Riordan Roett, the director of the Latin American program at Johns Hopkins
University. “They carry no geopolitical weight.”
Still, despite predictions that the economic model would
collapse, the economy grew by 9.2 percent last year. Mrs. Kirchner’s approval
ratings began to climb even as the government accused the country’s largest
media group, Clarín, of bias and fined private economists who disputed official
economic figures.
Then, in October 2010, when Mr. Kirchner, who had
suffered from heart problems, died, an outpouring of sympathy followed and Mrs.
Kirchner’s approval ratings rose. She began to soften her public image, calling
for unity and dialogue, a shift that won over more of the middle class, which
had grown weary of the government’s authoritarian style, said Roberto Starke, a
political analyst in Buenos Aires.
Meanwhile, the opposition failed to unite behind a
candidate. Rivals like Eduardo Duhalde, a dissident Peronist, and Ricardo
Alfonsín, a senator and son of Raul Alfonsín, the first civilian president
after the dictatorship, divided the anti-Kirchner vote.
“None of them could get any traction with the
government’s vulnerabilities — corruption and cronyism,” Mr. Shifter said.
As a result, the election became a referendum on the
economy, analysts said.
Argentina’s continued success relies on commodity prices
remaining high and on strong demand from China and Brazil, but economists say
those factors may soon be undermined by the global economic downturn. Growth is
expected to slow to 4.6 percent next year, in line with the rest of the region,
but inflation may remain stubbornly high, economists said.
“When the money runs out, there will be a political
reckoning,” said Karen Hooper, an analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence
company in Austin, Texas.
**Charles Newbery contributed reporting.