Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
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Frente Externo  
 
06/03/2006 | Could Mexico be heading for a coalition government without the PRI?

The Economist Staff

Mexican politics have long been characterised by a lack of ideology. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) managed to rule the country for 72 successive years by adopting a single guiding principle: stay in power.

 

That finally failed when Vicente Fox, from the centre-right National Action Party (PAN) won the presidency in 2000 with the slogan “Change!” But his administration has proved a bit of a disappointment, due largely to a congressional deadlock between the three major parties which has blocked much of the promised change. In elections over the past three years, the PRI has performed well, raising party hopes that Mr Fox's six-year term was but an interregnum.

This now seems unlikely, however. Most polls for the presidential elections, due to be held on July 2nd, give Roberto Madrazo, the PRI's candidate and a former party leader, around a quarter of the vote, trailing both Felipe Calderón, PAN's candidate, and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a former mayor of Mexico City and candidate of the centre-left Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Some polls put the two frontrunners neck and neck, while others have Mr López Obrador, for long the favourite, maintaining a slight lead.

A few trends are clear, however. The first is that Mr Calderón—who was not Mr Fox's choice as PAN's candidate, but came from behind to win the party's primaries—is on the upswing. The second is that Mr Madrazo's campaign has gone into a downward spiral. The series of scandals that have rocked the PRI, coupled with Mr Madrazo's lack of appeal to voters, have led most members of even his own party to doubt he can win. This means lukewarm support from both gubernatorial and congressional candidates, which will make the going even tougher for him.

“PRI-tanic!” is how Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, a former head of the PRI who now works for the rival PRD, gleefully sums up the situation. To be sure, the PRI is not the only party that has had to deal with corruption scandals. Several of Mr López Obrador's close aides were caught on videotape accepting large bundles of cash in 2003, though he personally appears to have escaped unscathed. The sons (from a previous marriage) of Marta Fox, the president's wife, have been accused of milking their political status for money. But, as Mr Calderón was not Mr Fox's preferred candidate, he feels sufficiently removed to be able to say tartly: “I take responsibility for no one's children but my own.”

Mr Calderón has been spending four times as much on his campaign in the media as his two main rivals. As the business community's preferred candidate, he is likely to be the best funded. All officially recognised party campaigns receive generous public support, while private donations are supposed to be closely monitored by the independent Federal Election Institute (IFE). But although there is little worry about the integrity of the actual vote, Mr Muñoz Ledo seems close to the mark when he describes IFE's performance in regulating campaign finance as “not even a paper tiger, a Kleenex tiger”. IFE officials themselves admit they have little control over the country's two main television networks, which will account for a large chunk of all the campaign's costs. A blitz of advertisements by Mr Fox over the last few months—which purport to be public-service advertisements and are paid for as such—are thinly veiled campaign ads for PAN. But so far IFE has taken no action against Mr Fox.

What is perhaps surprising is that there is little of substance at stake in the elections. Even with rivalry developing between centre-left and centre-right parties, ideology has little importance. “It will not be an election decided on policy proposals,” Manuel Camacho, a close adviser to Mr López Obrador, says firmly. That is because all three candidates not only agree on what the main issues are—the economy and crime—but also largely agree on what needs to be done: stimulate growth and get tough on criminals. So the election has become primarily a contest of credibility: who can be trusted to follow through best on proposals that are basically quite similar?

But the very consensus on the issues means that this election could bring about the sea-change in Mexican politics which many voters had hoped for when they elected Mr Fox. Under his minority administration, change did not come largely because he was unable to persuade a divided Congress to pass much of his legislation. Now both Mr Calderón and Mr López Obrador have begun talking openly of persuading some PRI deputies to form a governing coalition. Mexico is in sore need of structural reforms on many fronts: the tax system, the energy sector (Pemex, the state oil monopoly, currently accounts for over one third of government revenue), the justice system, education and pensions, to name only those areas most in need of overhaul. If a coalition were formed, it might just be possible that the next president, be he Mr Calderón or Mr López Obrador, could push such changes through Congress. If so, whatever the outcome of the campaign, Mexico could end up as the real winner.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House