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16/03/2006 | Latam swing left has Chavez-Castro on a roll

Anthony Boadle

When Aymara Indian Evo Morales was sworn in as Bolivia's first indigenous president on Jan 22, Venezuela's populist leader Hugo Chavez stood by him on the balcony raising his fist in the air to a crowd of miners and peasants who chanted "Chavez, Chavez!"

 

Days later, while thanking Cuban leader Fidel Castro's Communist government for sending doctors to help Bolivia's poor, Morales said there soon would be "more Cubas" in Latin America.

Chavez, who is promoting leftist integration as an alternative to a U.S.-sponsored hemispheric free trade bloc, proclaimed in Havana last month that "the hour of the people" had come in Latin America.

And he is willing to use Venezuela's oil wealth to aid Cuba and win over new friends as he presses to bring socialist revolution to the world's No. 5 oil exporter.

At least one upcoming election could bring Chavez another ally. Nicaragua's Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega -- a close Cuban ally -- is well placed to return to power in November.

But while left-of-center presidents have been voted into office in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay in recent years on a wave of discontent with U.S.-backed free-market economic policies, many of these leftists have stayed on good terms with the United States.

In Mexico, a close U.S. ally and free trade partner, leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is the front-runner in the July 2 presidential race. Lopez Obrador says he wants good relations with Washington but analysts believe tension would rise if he won power.

VENEZUELAN LARGESSE

Buoyed by high oil prices, Chavez has increased Venezuelan influence in the region.

Venezuela bought $2.5 billion in Argentine bonds and set up an energy initiative called Petrocaribe to supply subsidized oil to small Caribbean states. It also launched a regional television news network called Telesur.

But political analysts and diplomats say few other leaders are jumping on the anti-American bandwagon and fewer still are thinking of jettisoning well-entrenched free-market policies.

"Many Latin American leaders embrace Castro as a way to establish their independence from the U.S., but none are moving toward communism," said Daniel Erikson, Caribbean programs director at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington policy group.

"Similarly, many countries are more than happy to accept Hugo Chavez's oil largesse, but that doesn't mean they will support his international goals," Erikson said.

Caribbean nations have signed oil deals with Chavez, but they still voted against the Venezuelan candidate to head the Inter-American Development Bank and instead supported the U.S.-backed Colombian Luis Alberto Moreno, he noted.

CUBAN SWAGGER

Chavez has thrown Cuba a vital lifeline with preferential oil prices that Havana has paid for with medical services by 15,000 Cuban doctors working in Venezuelan slums and tens of thousands of eye operations for Venezuelans in Cuba.

The shot in the arm for its battered economy has helped Cuba reemerge as a regional player. It could also increase the chances of a communist leadership succeeding the 79-year-old Castro when he leaves the scene.

"There is a swagger and confidence about the Cuban government at the moment," said a European diplomat in Havana. "The swing to the left in Latin America allows them to say: 'history is going our way'."

Analysts are not convinced. They say the new breed of leftist Latin American leaders are democrats concerned with social equality but not radical change.

Brazil's first left-wing president in 40 years, former union leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has proven to be a market champion, sticking to the orthodox policies of his predecessor since taking office in 2003.

Argentina's Peronist President Nestor Kirchner is a moderate and Chilean Socialist Michelle Bachelet, who takes office on Saturday, is committed to free trade with the United States.

"Latin America's shift to the left is good for a headline, but look at the list. Most are social democrats, and they are not precisely queuing up to go to Cuba," the diplomat said.

Hacer - Washington DC (Estados Unidos)

 


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