Few people doubt that socialist Francois Hollande will become the new French president in May. His rival, incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy, came to power five years ago promising to increase living standards, stability and economic growth. Soon after, the global economic crisis hit, and the measures France and Germany employed to overcome the crisis resulted instead in the economic collapse of Greece and Spain.
The same fate may hit France as well. Someone must
answer for what is happening.
Seventy percent of the French people disapproved
of Sarkozy's pension reforms, and the parliamentary majority that
obediently supported the president's policy now finds itself in a
direct confrontation with the public. Although the guillotine has
been outlawed in the country, elections have not, and the
presidential poll has turned into a public flogging of the
authorities. In the first round of voting, Sarkozy earned
the lowest results of any incumbent president of the Fifth
Republic.
Nonetheless, the gap between the leaders
in the presidential race turned out to be surprisingly small.
Considering Sarkozy's extremely low popularity and the initial lead held
by the Socialists, their victory looks less than decisive. In the
end, Hollande finished with only a 1.1 percent lead over Sarkozy.
All polls suggest that Sarkozy will lose in the second
round of voting. With a Hollande victory all but assured,
the question now is: What can the Socialists offer France that
Sarkozy could not? Will they pursue a watered-down version of the
current policies, even though the least sophisticated voters have realized
that they have failed?
One of Hollande's more interesting statements has been
his call to abandon the European Union's Stability and Growth
Pact. Only a few months ago, it was France and Germany that were
twisting the arms of other states, forcing them to sign
the pact.
If the requirements of that document are
implemented, a slight strengthening of the euro would be obtained
at the price of an economic downturn that could become catastrophic
enough to bring down the euro. Looking at Spain and Greece,
it is therefore no surprise that much of the financial world is wondering
whether such measures are worth the longer-term costs. Hollande's
proposals are intended as a response to this line of thinking.
French society is changing. The old political parties
are rapidly losing credibility, and the public is putting ever greater
pressure on the government.
What's more, the growing social protest has not come
from the traditional left-wing parties but unexpectedly from the
Communists, Trotskyists and the National Front led by Marine Le Pen.
Political analysts have interpreted the rapid rise in her popularity
as a sign of the country's growing xenophobia
and anti-immigration mood. The "moderate" right tried
to outdo the racist rhetoric of the nationalists, while
the left pursued a hysterical campaign in defense of multiculturalism.
Neither approach worked. Le Pen focused her criticisms
on the neoliberal system, calling for France to leave NATO,
reject the euro, end the anti-
democratic practices of the EU and help developing
countries solve their problems so that their citizens would not have
to flee to Europe. The National Front turned out to be
the only party with a more or less intelligible social-democratic
program, and the party's foreign policy program is more reminiscent
of traditional Gaullist policies. As a result, Le Pen staked out
a third position for herself, attracting voters from both
the left and the right. In the end, dissatisfied French citizens
voted for the nationalists, thus teaching the country's traditional
political parties a hard lesson.
**Boris Kagarlitsky is the director of the
Institute of Globalization Studies.