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28/03/2006 | Thailand's Political Unrest: The Significance for Multinationals

Stratfor Staff

Political tensions escalated in Thailand on March 27 when authorities were called to defuse a bomb at the Bangkok headquarters of the country's main opposition Democrat Party. The incident occurred amid large protests calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is embroiled in a corruption controversy over the sale of family-owned telecommunications conglomerate, Shin Corp., to a Singapore-owned company.

 

Despite the crisis, however, neither side wants to hamper the flow of commerce in and out of Thailand. The situation, although unsettling, does not appear to pose a risk to multinational corporations operating in the country.

Large protests have become an almost daily occurrence in Bangkok, with demonstrators targeting the Singaporean Embassy and the Royal Plaza, among other sites. Several small bombings have taken place during this period, which, like the device planted at Democrat Party headquarters, were meant to send a message or intimidate rather than to maim or kill. On Jan. 27, for example, a bomb exploded at a Justice Ministry building outside of Bangkok, injuring four office workers. Also, a bomb targeted the opposition-linked Santi Asoke Buddhist sect headquarters Feb. 22, and another bomb exploded March 9 outside the residence of Privy Council President Gen. Prem Tinsulanonda, slightly injuring a British tourist. The latest bomb, found by a janitor about 6 a.m. local time, some four hours before it was set to explode, contained about one pound of TNT. Police evacuated the building and neutralized the device.

As the April 2 snap elections approach, Thai officials are bracing for more protests. A large rally is planned for March 29 at the Siam Paragon shopping center, prompting police to increase security on the capital's BTS Skytrain mass transit system to deal with the large crowds expected to travel to the center.

Although the demonstrations have been the largest since mass protests swept the military-appointed government from power in 1992, they have remained relatively peaceful. The large crowds have further congested Bangkok streets, for example, but there have been reports of only minor vandalism. Furthermore, several of Thailand's powerful labor unions are backing the opposition, but strikes called for by some labor leaders have failed to materialize. Meanwhile, Thai security forces, whose crackdown on protesters in 1992 resulted in many deaths, have thus far not clashed with demonstrators.

Although the political situation in Thailand seems precarious, no foreign multinational corporation or other foreign entity has been targeted. Both Thaksin and his main opposition appear committed to keeping commerce flowing in Thailand, and are being careful not to take actions that could disrupt trade or foreign investment.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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