Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Thaksin had been banking on a large mandate following Sunday's (2 April) general election, which he could then use to silence his critics. 

Implications

In the event, neither has the government secured the large-scale victory it was seeking, nor have the polls put an end to the opposition's protest campaign, increasing pressure on Thaksin to step down. 

Outlook

The political deadlock continues, although Thaksin's weakened position now means that resignation would appear the best course of action. However, the challenge facing the prime minister will be how to pursue this option without a loss of face. 

The Numbers Game

Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra announced ahead of snap polls on Sunday (2 April) that he would not seek to form a government if the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party failed to win 50% of the vote. Given that the party went unopposed in 278 of the lower-house constituencies, in the face of an opposition boycott, victory was never really an issue. Instead, it was the scale of the victory that was key. In this respect, Thaksin has not enjoyed a resounding success; although final results have yet to be published, it would appear that the TRT took 57% of the vote. As expected, the party performed well in the populous north and north-east, but fared badly in the south - the traditional heartland of the main opposition Democrat Party (DP) - and, importantly, in the capital Bangkok.

The TRT secured around 46% of the Bangkok vote, with the rest of the ballots ascribed as 'No Votes'. This is something of a comedown for a party that secured 33 of the city's 37 parliamentary seats in the February 2005 general election. Elsewhere, a total of 38 constituencies - mainly in the south - are now awaiting by-elections, after TRT candidates failed to secure the 20% of the vote that is required when a seat is contested by a single candidate. Electoral law decrees that these polls need to take place within the next 30 days, although it is feared that many of these will produce a repeat situation. This would create a serious constitutional problem, because parliament can only be formed once all of its 500 seats are filled. Furthermore, Thai law mandates that a parliament must be created within one month of the election result.

Thaksin's Options

Highlighting his realisation that the polls have failed to redress the country's political problems, Thaksin swiftly unveiled his reconciliation commission to the Thai public last night. The committee would comprise nine members: three former prime ministers, the same number of former supreme court chairmen, and three former parliamentary heads. Thaksin argued that it would be a neutral body, tasked with examining how to end the political impasse. Interestingly, Thaksin added that if the committee felt that it was in the country's best interests for him to step down, he would do so. The prime minister also recommitted to the pursuit of a number of constitutional reforms called for by the opposition, after which fresh general elections would be held within 15 months.

The response of the opposition alliance was swift and negative, opposing the idea of the committee outright. DP leader Abhisit Vejjajiva announced that the time for reconciliation had long passed, and that the opposition would not give up its protest campaign until Thaksin resigned. Abhisit added that should Thaksin step down, the opposition would then willingly participate in fresh elections. The next large protest rally has been called for Friday (7 April), again centring on Bangkok. It is a bold move, not least considering pre-election surveys that suggested a growing sense of apathy among the capital's residents over the prolonged protest campaign.

Ruling the Unruly

Since the weekend polls, talk has very much turned to Thaksin's resignation. He is regarded as having failed a key test, and the legitimacy that last year's general election gave him and the TRT has been undermined. The poor poll showing in Bangkok will be of greatest concern, not least given that the city is clearly at the heart of the country's political and business life. Thaksin and the TRT may still enjoy the support of the rural poor, but this will hardly instil confidence - either domestic or international - in another TRT administration. The key question therefore remains whether Thaksin will pursue the resignation offer. He held talks with the king today, prompting speculation over his future, although his advisors have sought to quell conjecture by pointing out that the pair are in regular conversation.

Outlook and Implications

By his very nature, Thaksin will not concede defeat. Furthermore, he has legitimately won another general election, albeit with a reduced mandate. In many respects, the worst thing that Thaksin could now do would be to take a hard line. He has already said that in the face of the opposition's rejection of his reconciliation committee, he will go ahead and try to form a parliament. Given the apparent difficulty in achieving this, Thaksin must be well aware that the challenges to his rule will mount as the political impasse continues. There is no sense at this stage that the armed forces would intervene; Thaksin himself is no fan of the military, and democracy is sufficiently entrenched in Thailand for this not to be an option. Furthermore, all of the parties in this battle are well aware of the negative consequences, particularly with regard to the investment climate, that would accompany such an outcome.

What Thaksin could do is call a state of emergency, in a bid to prevent further protests in Bangkok. However, he will be aware that he does not enjoy a sufficiently strong mandate to support this sort of hardline action, and it is clear that such a move would only exacerbate tensions. What Thaksin should therefore be considering is a means of stepping down, but - crucially - without losing face. The reconciliation committee could offer such an avenue, as could the king. Talks between Thaksin and the monarch have previously yielded unexpected but beneficial results, and the quiet intervention of this highly respected political player could yet resolve the stand-off.

Contact: Raul Dary

24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

www.globalinsight.com and www.wmrc.com