The year 2005 will see premature electioneering continue to predominate Mexican political life, even though the presidential contest is not due until July 2006. Incumbent President Vicente Fox has little chance of rescuing his reform project before his term expires. Mexican presidents are constitutionally barred from standing twice so hopes to advance Mexico's economic development lie with the next administration. For this reason, politicos have had their eyes on the next election since the first frustrating years of Fox's government.

Pledges to tackle the security deficit and establish a more effective government after President Fox's stalled progress will dominate election campaigns. His disappointing performance is undermining the country's fledgling democratic institutions while failed structural reforms, ironically largely stymied by the opposition, are restricting Mexico's growth potential. The country's democratic development is also seeing the revival of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the leading opposition party that sustained a stranglehold on power for 71 years until Fox's National Action Party (PAN) triumphed in 2000. With controversial First Lady Marta Sahagún de Fox ruling herself out and an electoral law violation hanging over Santiago Creel, Felipe Calderón is the pro-business PAN's best hope. But the centre-right party needs a miracle to recover its position in time for 2006.

With somewhat better democratic credentials and greater social rhetoric, presidential favourite and left-leaning Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), will continue to hold the lead in local polls. Nevertheless, AMLO faces the prospect of exclusion from the race to Los Pinos - Mexico's equivalent of the White House - as the national Congress prepares to vote on whether to strip him of his immunity from prosecution following an apparent land law violation. Since its strong performance in the 2004 gubernatorial, mayoral and municipal contests, the PRI - probably under Roberto Madrazo - would claim the victory without AMLO in the way.

Resurrection of the Dinosaurs

Roberto Madrazo's traditionalist wing (los dinosaurios) of the PRI is staging a political resurgence, aided by the unimpressive years of PAN government. Having celebrated success in eight (possibly nine) out of 10 gubernatorial elections staged in 2004, an emboldened PRI will begin its presidential campaign more openly in the coming year. The high hopes that accompanied Fox's victory have been dashed, with the PAN bearing the backlash as the president's personal popular approval ratings remain respectable. The failings of the Fox administration, particularly in the areas of economic reform, counter-crime initiatives and social inequalities, are increasingly interpreted as analogous to the inadequacies of the current economic model and democratic system itself. As such, Mexico's first truly democratic presidential term has, ironically, fuelled a declining faith in democracy and the prevailing economic model. By extension, this has generated a nostalgia for the PRI's authoritarian era and fed desires to partially restore the state's central role in the national economy, even though the latter is unlikely under pragmatic Madrazo.

Burnt-Out PAN

A definitive contender for the PAN has yet to be confirmed as the ruling party struggles to score any major successes in government. Failure to secure congressional support for heralded fiscal and energy reforms has earned the Fox government a reputation for being ineffectual. Early electioneering will continue to distract attention from the daily business of government, as will the ongoing row between the federal and Mexico City governments. The ruling PAN's pro-democratic credentials are being repeatedly damaged by allegations from AMLO and his supporters that the legal challenge over an apparently minor land law violation is politically motivated, given that he remains in pole position for 2006. Allegations against the president have included claims that he violated the separation of powers, amid reports that he held talks with Supreme Court Justice Mariano Azuela to discuss AMLO's potential desafuero, or impeachment. The feud is set to continue up to and beyond the congressional vote that will decide whether to strip AMLO of his immunity from prosecution.

Even though incumbent Interior (Government) Secretary Santiago Creel has been let off an electoral conviction that would have been a barrier to his candidacy, the damage sustained to his reputation makes him a less popular choice. Prior to the proceedings, Creel had won the support of the PAN's National Council as the party's preferred candidate to succeed President Fox. A more probable contender is ex-Energy Minister Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, who left office in June 2004 following a fracas with Fox for apparently prematurely positioning himself as a presidential contender. Less than a month later, he confirmed his intention to run for the presidency. Quiet since then, Calderón's campaigning will commence in the coming year.

AMLO: Another Latin American Leftist

If AMLO were a racehorse, commentators would harbour few hopes for his ultimate victory, having taken the lead so early on. While the workaholic mayor may have the stamina to keep up momentum until July 2006, he is already suffering the side-effect of excessive scrutiny as he positions himself as the most popular presidential challenger. He has led preliminary polls on who should succeed President Fox for well over a year. In AMLO's favour, a series of pragmatic leftist leaders have triumphed around Latin America in recent years, ranging from Chile's Ricardo Lagos, Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Argentina's Néstor Kirchner to Uruguay's recent victor, Tabaré Vázquez. AMLO's success in Mexico City has since been mirrored in the Colombian capital Bogotá, where life-long unionist Luis Eduardo Garzón won a resounding victory on a pragmatic leftist platform in October 2003.

Threats to AMLO's power bid are threefold. He must first secure backing to become the official candidate of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) while also winning over support from traditional leftists and party founder Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas for a more flexible economic programme. Three-times failed presidential contender Cárdenas was considering standing himself earlier this year. Meanwhile, with the PRD power base remaining highly concentrated in the country's centre, the party must find ways of generating popular appeal beyond traditional leftists. This may be possible under AMLO, whose pragmatic and business-like manner is attracting a broader base of voters in the capital. Yet losing its flagship governorship in Tlaxcala state in the November vote demonstrated the magnitude of the challenge facing the PRD. Finally, Mexico's national Congress must vote on whether to strip AMLO of his immunity from prosecution in order to facilitate an investigation into a minor land law violation. The mayor allegedly allowed construction on the patch of private land to improve access to a local hospital, despite a judicial ruling prohibiting the work. If criminal proceedings are in motion, the would-be PRD candidate will be removed from office and excluded from standing in 2006. Residents of the capital, at times numbering up to 150,000, have taken to the streets in an _expression of solidarity with their local leader, to reject the legal challenge they perceive as politically motivated. The ruling PAN and President Fox continue to bear the backlash of these allegations to their detriment.

Key Predictions

Parallel Presidential Promises: Rising crime has become a primary concern of the electorate, as 250,000 Mexico City citizens demonstrated in the 27 June 2004 'mega-march' on the capital. Pledges to shore up security helped the PRI's Jorge Hank Rhon end the PAN's 15-year domination in Ciudad Juárez, a crime hotspot close to the US border. With President Fox promising progress on his 10-point, counter-crime plan, the issue will remain of paramount importance as 2006 draws closer. Likewise all parties will make pledges to break congressional deadlock on economic reforms. Yet individual policy programmes would prove only nominally different in practice. Left-leaning AMLO will renew efforts to woo business while maintaining a stronger social rhetoric. Tight fiscal and monetary policies can be expected to stay in place whoever is victorious. Equally, advancing some structural reforms, particularly in the energy sector, will be imperative for the winning candidate as the danger of blackouts increases, social problems escalate and the country's competitiveness suffers.

More to Play For: Mexican elections are becoming increasingly competitive, giving some promising signs for democratic deepening in the country. While the PRI reasserted its dominance of Mexican politics at a local and state level, few, if any, results were without a respectable level of competition. The process has, however, been undermined by periodic allegations of corruption. Several key states - Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tlaxcala and unexpectedly Sinaloa - were disputed between the PAN and PRI. Gaining ground in Sinaloa, a PRI heartland, has provided a boost to the ailing ruling party but probable PAN candidate Felipe Calderón will not be able to reverse the party's fortunes.

Prising Back Power: Gubernatorial and municipal votes point towards a PRI comeback but Mexico City Mayor AMLO, of the PRD, will remain the favourite in the coming year. If legal proceedings bar AMLO from the presidential race, the process will be interpreted as a cynical political move by the establishment, further damaging faith in Mexican democracy. Another PRD candidate would lack the popular appeal of AMLO that might enable him to overcome his party’s deficiencies. In this event, a victory for the PRI under Roberto Madrazo is the most probable outcome, as voters punish the PAN for apparently orchestrating AMLO's exclusion from the contest. If democracy cannot be trusted, better to return to the architects of the 'perfect dictatorship', the famous description given to the former PRI regime by the right-wing Peruvian novelist Mario Vargas Llosa. Regaining power, this time through the democratic process, would re-legitimise the party that held a monopoly on power in Mexico for 71 years.

Raul Dary
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Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinight.com

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