No matter how hard the Russians try to breathe life into it, the Syrian regime — as the world knew it — is history.
The Geneva meeting that took place last Saturday was indeed, as many commentators predicted, another failed attempt at doing something serious for Syria. Failure is actually an understatement. The Geneva meeting was a catastrophe because it revealed how helpless and clueless the international community is about Syria. David Aaron Miller, a top former US Middle East envoy, described it as a “let’s make ourselves feel better” club aimed at figuring out “what to do about Syria”. Nobody seems to be in a hurry to end the violence in Syria.
The Americans are unwilling to get engaged any further, too busy with election year. The Turks don’t have the will or the way to put their big words in action. The Qataris and Saudis are still bankrolling the armed insurgency, completely uninterested in stopping the flow of arms. The Israelis are thrilled with a country falling apart before their eyes, no longer able to meddle in Palestinian affairs or to support non-state players such as Hezbollah, as it has done for the past 30 years. The Iranians are grinning at the situation in Syria, and so is Hezbollah, satisfied with a country that is weak and becoming totally dependent on Tehran. Moscow, for that matter, is thrilled at Syria becoming a Russian satellite like never before. Paying the price for all these are the people of Syria.
The Geneva meeting — which brought the permanent five at the Security Council, plus Turkey, Kuwait and Qatar — was aimed at discussing a new Annan Plan, now that the former UN secretary-general’s six-point plan is dead. According to a non-paper sent by Kofi Annan to participants ahead of the conference, an end to violence and a transitional unity government were the end objectives for Syria, with no reference whatsoever to Bashar Al Assad.
The unity government, in theory, would supervise new parliamentary elections, to be internationally monitored, a new constitution and a power-sharing formula between the opposition and the Baathists. Contrary to what many predicted, nothing was said about early presidential elections by December 2012 and no timetable was set for achieving any of the Geneva outcomes.