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10/04/2006 | Peru: Election 2006: Second Round Certain in Peru Amid a Tight Electoral Race

WMRC Staff

Partial results unveiled by the ONPE give all three main candidates a fair chance of running in the now-certain second round; despite enjoying only a slender lead, radical nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala is increasingly seen as certain of making it to the run-off, backed up by quick vote-count projections and exit poll figures.

 

Global Insight Perspective

Significance

All main presidential hopefuls are involved in a bitter fight to take part in the second-round election scheduled for May 2006 - radical leftist Ollanta Humala (Union for Peru, UPP), rightist Lourdes Flores (National Unity, UN) and social democrat Alan Garcia (American Popular Revolutionary Alliance, APRA) all stand within a 3-percentage-point bracket as little over 50% of the votes have been counted.

Implications

The tight results have led all three candidates to claim victory, which has prompted major non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and international organisations to call for calm and await formal full results set to be officially divulged within 20 days. 

Outlook

Humala is still seen as the main candidate guaranteed to stand in the run-off, but the closeness of the official results, unlike those of the exit polls, lends an air of uncertainty to the outcome.

Formal Partial Results: Peru Heads for Second Round

ONPE Partial Results*
Candidate Party Vote Count
Ollanta Humala Union for Peru - leftist/nationalist 27.804%
Lourdes Flores National Unity - right-of-centre 26.323%
Alan Garcia American Popular Revolutionary Alliance - left-of-centre 25.596%
Source:  National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE)
* 52.696% of the vote tally examined
As the voting stations closed and an evening of counting began, Peru's electoral authority, the National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) unveiled the first partial results affording leftist candidate Ollanta Humala (Union for Peru, UPP) a slender lead over his rivals Lourdes Flores (National Unity, UN) and Alan Garcia (American Popular Revolutionary Alliance, APRA). With 52.696% of the votes counted, Humala is leading Flores by 1.5%, with 27.8% against 26.3%. Alan Garcia follows closely with 25.6% of the votes. Exit polls are pointing to the likelihood of Humala stretching his lead as the vote count continues. Pollster Apoyo y Mercado indeed gives him a lead of 29.6%, with Flores and Garcia locked in battle to face him in the run-off with 24.5% and 24.2% respectively. CPI depicts a similar scenario, with Humala garnering a little more than 30% of the vote tally while Flores and Garcia follow with 25.8% and 24.4%. Datum International's exit poll's results fall in with the aforementioned findings.

Since none of the candidates has garnered the 50%-plus-one vote required to secure an outright victory, as predicted, the country will get to pick its next president in a May 2006 run-off. 

Too Close to Call?

ONPE results depict a very tight race between the three candidates, as the leader and the third favourite are only a little over 2 percentage points apart. In essence, with over 47% of the ballots remaining to be counted, all three candidates could be up for the run-off, largely mirroring the climate of uncertainty prevalent as campaigning came to an end last week. 

Exit polls, to be taken with caution, are nonetheless pointing to the certain presence of Humala in the run-off, while Flores and Garcia fight bitterly to face him - a scenario that was widely predicted earlier last week, prior to confusion caused by widely differing polls published outside Peru (see Peru: 7 April 2006: Election 2006: Final Polls Leave Peru's Presidential Election Wide Open). Exit polls were backed up by quick-vote techniques from Apoyo, but also from local and respected electoral monitor and non-governmental organisation (NGO), Transparencia. The latter has in the past produced quick-vote results within 0.2% and 0.1% of the final formal figures. Transparencia and Apoyo give Humala a clear lead, with around 30% of the total vote tally, ahead of any other main presidential hopeful by more than six percentage points. Despite its past reliable record, even Transparencia has called on caution, claiming that results were so close that no call could be made.

Outlook and Implications

The Three Top Vote-Getters Claim Victory

Amid tight results, all three candidates have claimed to have reached the run-off. Humala's spokesman, Eduardo Garibotto, reportedly thanked the Peruvian people for their confidence and accepted victory with 'humility', according to the EFE news agency, while pictures of Humala and his wife were broadcast appearing on a balcony doing the 'V for Victory' sign. Garcia has claimed he will accompany Humala to the run-off, while Flores has been more modest, stating she was 'optimistic' and waiting for the final results. Such figures could take longer to be fully revealed, as such a tight race precludes a rapid vote count. Each candidate claiming victory will want the full tally to be carefully examined. The ONPE's head, Magdalena Chu, hinted that as many as 20 days could be needed to have the final results available. There have already been some complaints that will have to be reviewed fully prior to proclaiming who will be the two participants in the second round. The second-round run-off will be firmly set thirty days after the final official promulgation of the first round's results.

The Peruvian election passed off almost without incident yesterday. The major upheavals were registered in the Andean province of Huanuco where explosions occurred - without injuring anyone - and at the Ricardo Palma University where Humala went to cast his vote. He was assailed by hundreds of demonstrators hurling bottles, eggs and insults - including calls of 'murderer'. Under the protection of international monitors and local forces, Humala had to be escorted from the premises. Nevertheless, no injuries were reported here either. Humala seized the opportunity to once again blame hostility on the alleged dirty campaign waged on his candidacy by President Alejandro Toledo, the media and his main competitors in the vote. He called the former a 'fascist' and qualified the whole incident as shameful. Apart from these incidents the election was marked by 'normality' and calm. However, one cannot help but wonder what shape tensions will take in an eventual run-off with Humala.

Contact: Raul Dary

24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

www.globalinsight.com and www.wmrc.com

WMRC (Reino Unido)

 


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