In an unscripted, Pope Francis-like deviation from protocol, Ms Fernández last week toured the flood-hit neighbourhood of La Plata, the Buenos Aires provincial capital where she grew up and where 51 people died after torrential rains. Instead of an outpouring of devotion, she was met with hostility from some irate residents. Social media networks have already started plugging plans for a nationwide anti-government rally, on April 18, following protests by tens of thousands of people last November and September. Political analysts say the flood aftermath is likely to dampen Ms Fernández’s approval ratings, which had been recovering and were at about 42 per cent before the tragedy.
By contrast, the pope’s domestic approval ratings are about 65 per cent, according to a poll last month. The president hastily had to mend fences with a pontiff she and her husband largely snubbed when he was Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio and it looks like she will have to get used to rubbing along with him now.
“The election of Pope Francis has partially changed the political climate,” says Sergio Berensztein of Poliarquía, a political consultancy and pollster. “It has allowed Cristina Fernández to project a less confrontational image.”
Within hours of her meeting with Pope Francis on the eve of his investiture, the government plastered posters around Buenos Aires honing in on the president’s manicured hands as she gave her compatriot a mate pot and metal straw – the way Argentines communally drink their beloved herb tea. “We share hope,” it said.
However, Mr Berensztein noted that a softer style was typical in an election year: Ms Fernández faces midterms in October where she will need a strong showing if she does decide to seek to change the constitution to run for a third term in 2015.
If she does not, she will need to find an heir for a political model she credits with transforming Argentina since her husband took office in 2003.
Meanwhile, amid political bickering over who is to blame for inadequate drainage works, the flood has turned attention on the government’s policy making and an economy on a “downward trend”, says Daniel Kerner at Eurasia, a consultancy.
While the state economic “model” preaches income redistribution and re-industrialisation, it has come to rely on heavy state subsidies. Inflation and growth figures are discredited and foreign exchange controls have fanned devaluation fears.
“It’s clear that the economic distortions are generated by ‘the model’ and are not being addressed. Now we are paying the consequences,” Mr Kerner said.
While the country spends in total $25m a day in national, provincial and municipal outlays, infrastructure has plummeted since 2011 to become the lowest component of national government spending from the fastest-growing in 2003-07, according to Luis Secco, an economist.
Utilities firms are struggling because of years of low tariffs and power cuts are common. A year after its expropriation, energy company YPF has attracted interest in its world-class Vaca Muerta shale deposit but companies have yet to put their money where their mouth is, meaning Argentina still has a hefty energy import bill. Vale, the world’s top iron ore producer, has suspended a $6bn potash project in Argentina because of soaring costs and foreign exchange controls.
The result? Economic bottlenecks and lower competitiveness.
