Global Insight Perspective
Significance

Iraq's first post-Saddam Hussein administration was unveiled on Saturday. It came over five months since December's general elections and has been hailed as a breakthrough of sorts in Iraq's quest to stabilise the security situation, achieve political consensus and begin rebuilding its battered infrastructure.

Implications

Although public security is the most acute challenge facing Iraq, parliament failed to agree on candidates to the strategically crucial yet highly controversial Interior and Defence ministries. The Interior Ministry, under Shi'a control, was accused of acquiescing to attacks by Shi'a militias against Iraq's Sunni community.

Outlook

The scale of the challenges facing Iraq's newly appointed ministers is enormous. However, the formation of a new government, although far from complete, does signify a notable step in the right direction. The urgency now lies in filling Iraq's security organs, crucial in quelling the continued violence affecting Iraq. Yesterday in the capital Baghdad alone at least 19 people were killed in a spate of suicide attacks and bombings.

A Tortuous Process

Iraq's 275-member parliament in a televised show of hands approved Iraq's first permanent government on Saturday; a much delayed and long-awaited first step in Iraq's post Saddam nation building exercise (see Iraq: 15 May 2006: Political Stalemate Continues During Weekend of Heightened Violence in Iraq). U.S. President George W. Bush hailed it as the end of a 'democratic transitional process in Iraq', while British Prime Minister Tony Blair said it marked Iraq's first 'genuine coalition government'. Saturday's vote in Baghdad's 'Green Zone', a safe haven disconnected from Baghdad's daily reality of violence, was a climax of sorts as Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who hails from the Da'wa Party, part of the dominant Shi'a bloc, presented his 36 member cabinet list, bar appointments to the Interior, Defence and National Security Ministries; the key security organs of Iraq. (see Iraq: 24 April 2006: New PM Set Task of Forming Iraqi Unity Government). Maliki himself will fill the Interior Ministry post while Deputy Prime Minister Salam Zabuai, a Sunni Arab, has been named acting Defence Minister. The defence and especially interior ministry appointments were always going to be the most controversial ones and remain one of the key potential stumbling blocks facing Iraq's nascent national unity government.

The Interior Ministry was rocked by allegations of housing 'torture chambers' underneath the ministry building and also turning a blind eye to revenge attacks by Shi'a militia groups against members of Iraq's Sunni community. (see Iraq: 9 March 2006: Rights Abuses in Iraq on the Rise, Says U.S. State Department). Maliki unveiled an ambitious 34-point programme of political, security and administrative reforms which include a pledge to tackle Iraq's insurgency and rein in militia groups which have become a law unto themselves; many of these militia groups are aligned to Iraqi political blocs represented in the new national unity government. Maliki's effectiveness in meeting his targets will depend in large part on his ability to navigate between the demands of his own dominant Shi'a political bloc, the concerns of a Sunni community reluctantly taking part in the Iraqi political process despite the violent objections of Sunni insurgents and Kurdish aspirations for an autonomous Kurdistan in the oil rich north.

Who's Who

The 36 member cabinet includes four women, has 19 Shi'as, eight Sunni Arabs, eight Kurds and one Christian. The key appointments announced on Saturday are that of Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Salam Zubai (Sunni), Deputy Prime Minister and National Security Minister Barham Salih (Kurd), Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani (Shi'a), Justice Minister Hashim Abdul Rahman Shibli (Sunni), Finance Minister Bayan Solagh (Shi'a); Hoshyar Zebari of the Kurdistan Democratic party (KDP) who has already served as Iraqi Foreign Minister in the Iraqi interim government and is a well known face in international circles retains the foreign affairs portfolio. The new oil minister Hussein Shahristani is a nuclear scientist who was imprisoned under Saddam Hussein; his appointment as oil minister was resisted by supporters of former minister Hashim al-Hashemi, prompting a walk-out by the small Shi'a Fadrillah Party. Bayan Solagh, the controversial former Interior Minister and a powerful official within the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) assumes the Finance Ministry. Former Pentagon favourite Ahmed Chalabi is conspicuous in his absence and is being touted to become Interior Minister.

Now the Hard Work

Now that Iraq's first permanent government has been unveiled, putting aside the not so minor issue of the 'big three', namely interior, defence and national security, which Maliki has said will be presented within 'days', the hard work now begins. Iraq's new legislators are tasked with undertaking a constitutional review, ending corruption within the key oil and interior ministries and more importantly for ordinary Iraqis tackling electricity shortages before the height of Iraq's summer season and improving food security and public safety. Electricity output in Baghdad fell to four hours a day in Baghdad last month, 'as low as it has been at any time since the lights first came back on after the war', according to the Economist. A recent report supported by the U.N Children's Fund (UNICEF) also found that almost one in ten Iraqi children aged between six months and six years suffered 'acute malnutrition'.

Politically, the formulae for distributing oil revenues is likely to prove a key sticking point, with Sunni leaders expressing concern that the lion's share of oil wealth will be confined in the hands of Shi'a and Kurdish regions.

Outlook and Implications

British Prime Minister Tony Blair landed in Baghdad less than an hour ago, underlining the importance attached by the United States and United Kingdom to the formation of Iraq's first permanent government. A British official accompanying the Prime Minister told the BBC that the withdrawal of the multinational force 'should be accomplished within four years, with a hand-over of power to civilian forces in several provinces during the summer'. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki certainly has his work cut out for him as he steers his way through Iraq's political maze riddled with sectarian and ethnic fault lines and also responds to pressure from both the U.S. and British leaders, whose domestic standings have plummeted in large part because of the ongoing violence in Iraq. His navigational skills will prove crucial in determining Iraq's political and security prospects.

Raul Dary

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raul.dary@globalinsight.com

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