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02/02/2005 | Analysis / Now's the time for a `glass half-full' approach

Aluf Benn

A source in the defense establishment described the dilemma now facing Israel following mortar fire in Gaza: On the one hand, the public wants quiet and is ready to close "half an eye" to give the cease-fire a chance.

 

On the other hand, Israel cannot give up the principle that the PA prevent attacks. The solution to the dilemma is also split into two: verbal pressure on the PA and restraint on the ground.

Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz demanded from his Palestinian interlocutors that they do something to stop the mortars and not make do with the passive deployment of thousands of policemen in Gaza. But Israel will avoid any use of force if there is no further escalation.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, meanwhile, is as suspicious as ever. He has noticed the situation is turning bad in the territories following a few days of quiet. In political meetings, he says the deployment of the PA police is not a replacement for the first steps of the road map, which demand that the Palestinians take more practical steps against terror.

Sharon sees incitement continuing in the Palestinian media, and believes that while the new head of the PA, Mahmoud Abbas, has taken some steps, he still hasn't joined the Zionist movement. Sharon's envoy to Washington, Dov Weisglass, presented the analysis to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. "There's no doubt Abu Mazen is not Arafat, and means well," he said. "The question is can he execute."

Weisglass detailed Abbas' weaknesses: He has no cabinet, and has not even appointed a team of aides. He enjoys the strength derived from his election, and has managed to order the deployment in Gaza. But the deployment is not what is preventing attacks, as the mortar fire shows, and the quiet is a tactical decision by Hamas, not the result of PA actions.

Rice heard that Hamas could break the quiet any moment, but has been badly hurt by IDF actions, and is attentive to the public mood in the Palestinian street, which wants quiet.

In other words, Hamas faces the same dilemma as Israel. The Palestinians also are tired of the fighting, want domestic and international legitimacy, and understand now is the time for some quiet.

Thus the two sides continue their delicate dance. Sharon now needs pubic support ahead of the votes on the disengagement and the budget, and he needs American support ahead of the renewal of political talks with the Palestinians.

The quiet is important for him to make goodwill gestures to the Palestinians, like freeing prisoners and dropping the list of wanted men.

Rice will go to Israel and the PA Sunday, and two days later, Abbas and Sharon will meet. Now's the time for the "half-full glass," to highlight the relative quiet and not endanger it with a "half-empty glass" approach.

Haaretz (Israel)

 



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