The campaign by anti-government protesters to derail the 2 February election raises prospects of widespread political violence, and scope for peaceful resolution is narrowing. Protests may aim to provoke a military coup, or encourage a judicial coup.
If
protesters succeed in their bid to delay the poll and replace the elected
caretaker government with an appointed council, others who demand to exercise
their constitutionally-guaranteed franchise are likely to resist. Competing
Thai elites – with mass backing – disagree fundamentally about how political
power should be acquired and exercised. The election, and the opposition to it,
crystallises the dilemma in reaching a new consensus on Thailand’s political
order: will government be legitimised by voters or by traditional institutions
such as the monarchy and the military?
Since
2005, political and structural tensions have animated a conflict centred on
self-exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who won enduring support
from majorities in the north and north east newly conscious of their electoral
power. Thaksin challenged institutions that draw legitimacy from traditional
sources of authority, including the military, judiciary, palace network
elements and watchdog bodies collectively known as “independent agencies”.
Beginning with a 2006 military coup, and in concert with the Democrat Party,
which draws most of its support from the south and Bangkok, these institutions
have tried and failed to eliminate Thaksin’s influence.
Anti-government
protesters have staged mostly-peaceful rallies in Bangkok for two months, but
also occupied government buildings, attacked pro-government Red Shirt
activists, disrupted election registration and occasionally clashed with
police. Gunmen have targeted protest sites. At least eight people have been
killed and more than 450 injured in protest-related violence.
There
is no clear way out. But there are ways to render a bad situation potentially
catastrophic. Denying the chance to vote is one. So is the propensity of some
leaders to achieve by mass action – often violent – what they cannot by popular
mandate or negotiation. As much as elections, Thailand needs leadership to
generate the truly inclusive national dialogue required to set it on a stable
path.
As
anti-government protesters intensify actions, the risk of violence across wide
swathes of the country is growing and significant. The People’s Democratic
Reform Committee (PDRC) protesters, led by former Democrat Party secretary
general Suthep Thaugsuban, are determined to unseat the caretaker government of
Thaksin’s sister, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. They also aim to derail
the election they fear will reinstall Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party.
Thaksin-aligned parties have won every poll since 2001, a record that has
eroded his enemies’ faith in elections. The PDRC considers Thaksin uniquely
corrupt and malevolent. It attributes his electoral success to vote fraud and
the susceptibility of poorer, less educated citizens to unethical,
unsustainable populist policies.
The
PDRC insists that extraordinary measures, including suspension of electoral
democracy, are required to “uproot the Thaksin regime”. Citing ambiguous constitutional
provisions to justify ousting the elected government, the PDRC proposes to
eradicate “Thaksinism” via an unelected People’s Council – 100 “good people”
whom it would appoint and 300 others chosen as functional representatives – to
govern for up to eighteen months and implement reforms. The reform agenda is
only broadly outlined and includes decentralisation, elected governors,
stronger anti-corruption laws and police reform.
After
Pheu Thai’s 2011 election victory, Yingluck cultivated relations with Thaksin’s
opponents in the senior ranks of the military and Privy Council. Small
anti-government protests lacked traction until October, when parliament passed
an ill-judged blanket amnesty that would have erased Thaksin’s 2008
abuse-of-power conviction. It would also have absolved ex-Prime Minister
Abhisit Vejjajiva and his deputy, Suthep, for ordering the 2010 military
crackdown on pro-Thaksin Red Shirt protesters in Bangkok that killed more than
90, as well as army officers who implemented the order. The bill galvanised
Thaksin’s opponents and sparked sustained protests that attracted growing
numbers of middle-class Bangkokians. Faced with overwhelming opposition,
including from Red Shirt allies, the government withdrew support.
Even
before the Senate rejected the bill on 11 November, protest leaders shifted
their goal to ousting the government. Several Democrats, including Suthep,
resigned from the party to lead the street protests. After Democrat Party MPs
resigned en masse, Yingluck dissolved parliament on 9 December, and the
government acquired caretaker status. As demanded by the constitution, the
February election was scheduled and endorsed by royal decree. The Democrat
Party resolved to boycott the election, as it did in 2006, and support the protests.
The
PDRC plans to paralyse Bangkok to eject the government and force cancellation
of the election. There is immediate risk of violence designed to instigate a
coup. The army chief, General Prayudh Chan-ocha, has not ruled out the
possibility. The army has mounted eighteen successful and attempted coups since
1932 and suppressed pro-democracy demonstrations with lethal force in 1973,
1992 and 2010. It has never intervened on behalf of a Thaksin-aligned
government.
There
are other potential triggers for unrest. If the election is delayed without
government consent or results are nullified, many who saw their representatives
expelled from office in 2006 and 2008 too, may see no recourse other than
violent resistance. The combination of street protests and judicial
intervention to unseat elected government is familiar; in 2008, the
anti-Thaksin People’s Alliance for Democracy occupied Government House for
months and closed Bangkok’s airports before the Constitutional Court dissolved
the People’s Power Party, a Pheu Thai predecessor. Many perceive the
Constitutional Court as biased, and the “independent agencies” – mandated by
the 2006 coup makers’ 2007 constitution – as compromised because their members
were appointed by committees dominated by judges and officials not themselves
democratically accountable.
The
election faces multiple pitfalls. The Democrat Party decision to boycott might
provide a pretext to challenge the poll’s legitimacy. The Election Commission
appears reluctant to perform its duties and has called for the election to be
postponed. Protesters prevented candidates from registering in 28
constituencies in the Democrat Party’s southern stronghold. The Election
Commission should take remedial action, but this is uncertain. On 7 January, the
National Anti-Corruption Commission pressed misconduct charges against 308
mostly Pheu Thai lawmakers who supported an amendment to create an all-elected
senate. Many are candidates and could be disqualified if impeached by the
Senate. If less than 95 per cent of the 500 seats are filled on 2 February,
by-elections will be required before the new parliament can meet.
The
détente of the last few years masked fundamental, unresolved tensions. Today’s
crisis has greater scope for serious, protracted violence than earlier episodes
not least because there is neither evident middle ground nor protester appetite
for compromise.
A
deal to postpone the election could buy time for negotiation but would be only
a stopgap without a comprehensive, broadly accepted agreement on the future
political order. Thailand is deeply polarised, and the prospects for such an
agreement are dim. Still, a counsel of despair is not an option. All need to
understand that violence will not advance more responsive and transparent
government. An election alone will also not resolve basic disagreements about
how political power should be acquired and exercised, but the following should
be borne in mind as a way out of the impasse is sought:
- there
is no obvious route to a peaceful resolution that does not respect the
voice of a majority of voters. Imposition of an appointed government
without consent of the electorate would invite violence;
- the
Democrat Party should recommit to the electoral process;
- all
should commit to pursuing political change non-violently and with due
regard for others’ rights;
- the
military could best respond to the current crisis by an unequivocal
commitment to the democratic process and express support for dialogue
between the opposing camps; and
- Thailand
needs to confront how it is governed, including the decentralization
question and reform of key state institutions, but these issues should be
discussed nationally – not presented as the agenda of one side – and take
place in parallel to and beyond, not in place of, the
constitutionally-required electoral process.
If
the sides can agree on the need to avoid violence and for a national dialogue
built on a shared agenda, a solution might just possibly be found. It is a slim
reed on which to float hopes, but in Bangkok there is little else available.
fecha |
Título |
09/07/2020| |
|
18/09/2019| |
|
30/11/2017| |
|
02/03/2017| |
|
13/01/2017| |
|
05/11/2016| |
|
04/10/2016| |
|
02/05/2016| |
|
30/03/2016| |
|
20/03/2016| |
|
19/03/2016| |
|
17/03/2016| |
|
19/02/2016| |
|
16/10/2015| |
|
16/10/2015| |
|
13/10/2015| |
|
04/10/2015| |
|
29/09/2015| |
|
29/09/2015| |
|
25/09/2015| |
|
25/09/2015| |
|
05/09/2015| |
|
05/09/2015| |
|
05/09/2015| |
|
05/09/2015| |
|
05/09/2015| |
|
01/08/2015| |
|
01/08/2015| |
|
27/07/2015| |
|
16/07/2015| |
|
25/06/2015| |
|
04/06/2015| |
|
11/05/2015| |
|
07/05/2015| |
|
28/04/2015| |
|
18/04/2015| |
|
17/04/2015| |
|
08/04/2015| |
|
05/04/2015| |
|
05/04/2015| |
|
05/04/2015| |
|
31/03/2015| |
|
31/03/2015| |
|
22/03/2015| |
|
16/03/2015| |
|
16/03/2015| |
|
16/03/2015| |
|
28/02/2015| |
|
10/02/2015| |
|
03/02/2015| |
|
30/01/2015| |
|
28/01/2015| |
|
20/01/2015| |
|
07/01/2015| |
|
23/12/2014| |
|
22/12/2014| |
|
20/12/2014| |
|
18/12/2014| |
|
16/12/2014| |
|
16/12/2014| |
|
10/12/2014| |
|
05/12/2014| |
|
02/12/2014| |
|
09/11/2014| |
|
03/11/2014| |
|
30/10/2014| |
|
30/10/2014| |
|
22/10/2014| |
|
22/10/2014| |
|
18/10/2014| |
|
13/10/2014| |
|
02/10/2014| |
|
01/10/2014| |
|
23/09/2014| |
|
11/09/2014| |
|
09/09/2014| |
|
08/09/2014| |
|
05/09/2014| |
|
21/08/2014| |
|
15/08/2014| |
|
05/08/2014| |
|
03/08/2014| |
|
25/07/2014| |
|
10/07/2014| |
|
21/06/2014| |
|
21/06/2014| |
|
13/06/2014| |
|
22/05/2014| |
|
15/05/2014| |
|
13/05/2014| |
|
29/04/2014| |
|
22/04/2014| |
|
08/04/2014| |
|
08/04/2014| |
|
08/04/2014| |
|
08/04/2014| |
|
03/04/2014| |
|
17/02/2014| |
|
27/01/2014| |
|
23/01/2014| |
|
05/01/2014| |
|
26/12/2013| |
|
06/11/2013| |
|
18/10/2013| |
|
17/10/2013| |
|
08/10/2013| |
|
05/10/2013| |
|
01/10/2013| |
|
22/09/2013| |
|
06/09/2013| |
|
03/09/2013| |
|
02/09/2013| |
|
09/08/2013| |
|
09/08/2013| |
|
31/07/2013| |
|
31/07/2013| |
|
28/07/2013| |
|
27/06/2013| |
|
26/06/2013| |
|
22/06/2013| |
|
19/06/2013| |
|
14/06/2013| |
|
05/06/2013| |
|
29/05/2013| |
|
29/05/2013| |
|
21/05/2013| |
|
16/05/2013| |
|
14/05/2013| |
|
13/05/2013| |
|
08/05/2013| |
|
07/05/2013| |
|
06/05/2013| |
|
02/05/2013| |
|
30/04/2013| |
|
27/04/2013| |
|
17/04/2013| |
|
12/04/2013| |
|
11/04/2013| |
|
08/04/2013| |
|
04/04/2013| |
|
02/04/2013| |
|
01/04/2013| |
|
19/03/2013| |
|
13/03/2013| |
|
07/03/2013| |
|
04/03/2013| |
|
04/03/2013| |
|
01/03/2013| |
|
26/02/2013| |
|
20/02/2013| |
|
19/02/2013| |
|
19/02/2013| |
|
18/02/2013| |
|
15/02/2013| |
|
06/02/2013| |
|
04/02/2013| |
|
03/02/2013| |
|
22/01/2013| |
|
18/01/2013| |
|
15/01/2013| |
|
02/01/2013| |
|
02/01/2013| |
|
18/12/2012| |
|
12/12/2012| |
|
05/12/2012| |
|
03/12/2012| |
|
28/11/2012| |
|
28/11/2012| |
|
26/11/2012| |
|
24/11/2012| |
|
22/11/2012| |
|
21/11/2012| |
|
21/11/2012| |
|
12/11/2012| |
|
01/11/2012| |
|
25/10/2012| |
|
19/10/2012| |
|
19/10/2012| |
|
10/09/2012| |
|
06/09/2012| |
|
27/08/2012| |
|
22/08/2012| |
|
22/08/2012| |
|
17/08/2012| |
|
16/08/2012| |
|
14/08/2012| |
|
09/08/2012| |
|
07/08/2012| |
|
03/08/2012| |
|
01/08/2012| |
|
01/08/2012| |
|
01/08/2012| |
|
01/08/2012| |
|
28/07/2012| |
|
28/07/2012| |
|
28/07/2012| |
|
28/07/2012| |
|
27/07/2012| |
|
27/07/2012| |
|
27/07/2012| |
|
27/07/2012| |
|
24/07/2012| |
|
24/07/2012| |
|
24/07/2012| |
|
18/07/2012| |
|
16/07/2012| |
|
13/07/2012| |
|
05/07/2012| |
|
05/07/2012| |
|
05/07/2012| |
|
05/07/2012| |
|
28/06/2012| |
|
26/06/2012| |
|
25/06/2012| |
|
12/06/2012| |
|
12/06/2012| |
|
11/06/2012| |
|
07/06/2012| |
|
19/05/2012| |
|
19/05/2012| |
|
16/05/2012| |
|
10/05/2012| |
|
07/05/2012| |
|
04/05/2012| |
|
02/05/2012| |
|
27/04/2012| |
|
24/04/2012| |
|
23/04/2012| |
|
16/04/2012| |
|
11/04/2012| |
|
06/04/2012| |
|
05/04/2012| |
|
02/04/2012| |
|
01/04/2012| |
|
30/03/2012| |
|
27/03/2012| |
|
21/03/2012| |
|
21/03/2012| |
|
17/03/2012| |
|
17/03/2012| |
|
15/03/2012| |
|
15/03/2012| |
|
06/03/2012| |
|
06/03/2012| |
|
04/03/2012| |
|
04/03/2012| |
|
29/02/2012| |
|
29/02/2012| |
|
29/02/2012| |
|
24/02/2012| |
|
24/02/2012| |
|
24/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
17/02/2012| |
|
16/02/2012| |
|
03/11/2011| |
|
02/11/2011| |
|
12/10/2011| |
|
11/10/2011| |
|
04/10/2011| |
|
27/09/2011| |
|
27/09/2011| |
|
24/09/2011| |
|
23/09/2011| |
|
15/09/2011| |
|
14/09/2011| |
|
12/09/2011| |
|
09/09/2011| |
|
09/09/2011| |
|
06/09/2011| |
|
06/09/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
22/08/2011| |
|
22/08/2011| |
|
14/08/2011| |
|
08/08/2011| |
|
05/08/2011| |
|
05/08/2011| |
|
04/08/2011| |
|
04/08/2011| |
|
29/07/2011| |
|
27/07/2011| |
|
23/07/2011| |
|
22/07/2011| |
|
17/07/2011| |
|
17/07/2011| |
|
07/07/2011| |
|
07/07/2011| |
|
03/07/2011| |
|
03/07/2011| |
|
28/06/2011| |
|
28/06/2011| |
|
16/06/2011| |
|
16/06/2011| |
|
16/06/2011| |
|
16/06/2011| |
|
07/06/2011| |
|
07/06/2011| |
|
31/05/2011| |
|
31/05/2011| |
|
28/05/2011| |
|
28/05/2011| |
|
25/05/2011| |
|
24/05/2011| |
|
24/05/2011| |
|
07/05/2011| |
|
07/05/2011| |
|
06/05/2011| |
|
06/05/2011| |
|
05/05/2011| |
|
05/05/2011| |
|
03/05/2011| |
|
03/05/2011| |
|
02/05/2011| |
|
02/05/2011| |
|
01/05/2011| |
|
01/05/2011| |
|
01/05/2011| |
|
01/05/2011| |
|
22/04/2011| |
|
22/04/2011| |
|
18/04/2011| |
|
18/04/2011| |
|
10/04/2011| |
|
07/04/2011| |
|
07/04/2011| |
|
25/03/2011| |
|
25/03/2011| |
|
25/03/2011| |
|
17/03/2011| |
|
11/03/2011| |
|
22/02/2011| |
|
22/02/2011| |
|
15/02/2011| |
|
15/02/2011| |
|
08/02/2011| |
|
04/02/2011| |
|
04/02/2011| |
|
28/01/2011| |
|
19/01/2011| |
|
13/01/2011| |
|
01/01/2011| |
|
31/12/2010| |
|
23/12/2010| |
|
05/12/2010| |
|
02/12/2010| |
|
28/11/2010| |
|
27/11/2010| |
|
26/11/2010| |
|
22/11/2010| |
|
22/11/2010| |
|
22/11/2010| |
|
18/11/2010| |
|
01/11/2010| |
|
26/08/2010| |
|
26/08/2010| |
|
24/08/2010| |
|
24/08/2010| |
|
06/08/2010| |
|
28/06/2010| |
|
18/06/2010| |
|
16/06/2010| |
|
11/06/2010| |
|
19/05/2010| |
|
02/05/2010| |
|
02/05/2010| |
|
25/04/2010| |
|
04/04/2010| |
|
11/03/2010| |
|
02/03/2010| |
|
18/02/2010| |
|
20/11/2009| |
|
20/11/2009| |
|
06/11/2009| |
|
01/11/2009| |
|
27/10/2009| |
|
22/10/2009| |
|
05/09/2009| |
|
31/08/2009| |
|
27/08/2009| |
|
15/08/2009| |
|
02/08/2009| |
|
02/08/2009| |
|
20/07/2009| |
|
20/07/2009| |
|
18/07/2009| |
|
18/07/2009| |
|
11/03/2009| |
|
11/03/2009| |
|
10/03/2009| |
|
10/03/2009| |
|
10/03/2009| |
|
10/03/2009| |
|
17/12/2008| |
|
14/12/2008| |
|
02/10/2008| |
|
02/10/2008| |
|
24/08/2008| |
|
24/08/2008| |
|
08/08/2008| |
|
08/08/2008| |
|
14/05/2008| |
|
02/04/2008| |
|
02/04/2008| |
|
12/01/2008| |
|
19/05/2007| |
|
19/05/2007| |
|
10/05/2007| |
|
10/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
30/04/2007| |
|
30/04/2007| |
|
02/04/2007| |
|
01/04/2007| |
|
29/03/2007| |
|
16/03/2007| |
|
16/03/2007| |
|
05/03/2007| |
|
05/03/2007| |
|
28/02/2007| |
|
26/02/2007| |
|
26/02/2007| |
|
26/01/2007| |
|
26/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
15/12/2006| |
|
15/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
28/11/2006| |
|
28/11/2006| |
|
24/11/2006| |
|
24/11/2006| |
|
11/11/2006| |
|
08/11/2006| |
|
01/11/2006| |
|
01/11/2006| |
|
30/10/2006| |
|
25/10/2006| |
|
20/10/2006| |
|
11/10/2006| |
|
04/10/2006| |
|
15/09/2006| |
|
13/09/2006| |
|
03/09/2006| |
|
17/08/2006| |
|
17/08/2006| |
|
09/08/2006| |
|
26/07/2006| |
|
13/06/2006| |
|
06/06/2006| |
|
01/06/2006| |
|
30/05/2006| |
|
15/05/2006| |
|
12/05/2006| |
|
12/05/2006| |
|
10/05/2006| |
|
02/05/2006| |
|
25/04/2006| |
|
21/04/2006| |
|
21/04/2006| |
|
10/04/2006| |
|
23/03/2006| |
|
20/03/2006| |
|
17/03/2006| |
|
15/03/2006| |
|
15/03/2006| |
|
15/03/2006| |
|
15/03/2006| |
|
27/02/2006| |
|
23/02/2006| |
|
17/02/2006| |
|
15/02/2006| |
|
15/02/2006| |
|
04/02/2006| |
|
04/02/2006| |
|
18/07/2005| |
|
03/07/2005| |
|
30/06/2005| |
|
28/06/2005| |
|
28/06/2005| |
|
28/06/2005| |
|
19/04/2005| |
|
19/04/2005| |
|