"The elections would have political, economic and geo-strategic consequences for the United States," said presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre earlier this week in a discussion co-sponsored by the Heritage Foundation, the Council for the Americas and the American Enterprise Institute.

"This November, Nicaraguans will make a fundamental decision at the ballot box," Montealegre said. " They will either vote to join the expanding Castro/Chavez alliance or they will vote to continue the journey to democracy and development through building democratic institutions and free markets."

Montealegre is running for the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance after being removed from the Liberalist Constitutionalist Party -- PLC --following an agreement between former president and Sandinista candidate Daniel Ortega and former President Arnoldo Aleman. The Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance is the largest party of former Contras in Nicaragua.

Also running are the former Sandinista mayor of Managua Herty Lewites and Jose Rizo, the candidate selected by former President Aleman.

Montealegre accused Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez of intervening in the electoral process with what Montealegre called a "blatant attempt to buy the election" and considers the fact that Chavez is willing to violate principles of international conduct to influence the outcome of the election proof of Nicaragua's importance to Castro and Chavez in their plan for Latin America.

A win for Ortega, an "icon of anti-Americanism" according to Montealegre, would deliver a boost to Chavez and inspire authoritarian leftist leaders and movements throughout the region. Montealegre said also that an Ortega victory would break the pro-American consensus that arose from the passage of the Central American Free Trade Agreement, CAFTA.

"Many political gains for the United States that arose from the passage of CAFTA -- in terms of binding the entire region closer to the United States -- will be threatened by the coming to power in Central America of a leader whose primary objective will be to reduce and minimize the influence of the United States in the region," he said.

If Ortega wins back the presidency, Montealegre said, it may be the last real election in Nicaragua for a long time.

"The fundamental political problem is that Daniel Ortega does not believe in democracy; does not believe in democratic institutions," he said. "He never has."

Some believe, however, that U.S. concern over the elections may be misdirected or overstated.

Julia Sweig, senior fellow and director for Latin American Studies at the Council for Foreign Relations, said that if Ortega is elected, there will certainly be an anti-American nationalism that will "look, smell and taste" like Venezuela's, but in general, there is a growing discontent with U.S. policy in the region regardless of the leaders.

"The United States, no matter who wins in Nicaragua, faces a Latin America that is generally uncomfortable with the direction of United States policy in the Western Hemisphere," Sweig said. "Montealegre has nno interest in scaring Washington."

Geoff Thale, program director and senior associate for Cuba and Central America at the Washington Office of Latin America, also believes that threats of an Ortega presidency made by Montealegre to be overstated.

"It seems that the United States has a policy of opposing Ortega in sort of a knee-jerk way," Thale said. "It is hard to see how any government in Nicaragua could be a threat to U.S. security."

Thale pointed to the fear during the Reagan era of the Sandinista threat to the United States which was "mistaken" even in the Cold War context and, he believes, even more mistaken now.

"The U.S. concern should be about the integrity of the electoral process and not the outcome," Thale said. "To suggest that any government in Nicaragua is a threat to U.S. national security is frankly ludicrous. The United States could live with an Ortega presidency."

Thale believes that invoking fears of security in order to involve the United States by supporting one candidate over another is not a useful way to strengthen democracy.

"The United States should be clear that we want to see a free and impartial electoral process; that the consolidation of democracy is a principal concern; and that we will respect the results of the elections and work out our relationship with whoever is president," Thale said.

Montealegre expressed concern that if Ortega were to be elected, he would manipulate the electoral process to do away with elections. Thale does not believe that to be the case. He pointed to Ortega's peaceful removal from office following the elections in 1990 and said he believes that while Ortega does not like elections, he has proven to be respectful of the results in the past.

Thale does, however, see a need for the United States and the international community to monitor the electoral process because historically, Ortega and Aleman have picked the election tribunal and the courts with little respect to the separation of powers.

"The international community should resist that manipulation and do what they can to monitor the process," Thale said. "It doesn't help if the United States is involved with one candidate. Our impartiality is important."