The war between the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/SPLA) government and the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) that began in Juba in December and spread to the three Greater Upper Nile states (Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity) is in danger of escalation, including more atrocities and famine.
As Crisis Group warned in April, conflict has
broken out in Greater Bahr el Ghazal, and rising tensions threaten to drag in
the relatively peaceful Equatorian states. The Security Council, in emergency
session, should instruct the UN mission (UNMISS) to use its good offices to
prevent further cessation of hostilities violations and violence against
civilians; establish an international contact group and arms embargo; and
better delineate roles between UNMISS and humanitarians on the ground.
Concurrently, the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
must better link its stuttering peace process with communal dialogues inside
South Sudan and reach out to excluded constituencies. The dynamics that need
urgent attention include:
- Growing tensions between the national government and
the leaderships of the three Equatorian states. Fuelled by deliberate rumour-mongering, these have
Juba on high alert. The Equatorians and the SPLM/A-IO insist on federalism
to break the perceived “Dinka-dominated” central government’s wealth and
power monopoly. Though local mediation is underway to stem escalation,
worrying aspects include reported clashes (denied by both parties) between
the Central Equatoria governor’s (ethnic) Mundari bodyguards and the
Presidential Guard; the governor’s statements that Equtorians in the
security forces have been disarmed; news of mobilisation of armed
civilians within and around Juba; reported weapons shipments into the
Equatorian states; a minor clash related to mobilisation of Equatorians in
Maridi; and a government curfew in Juba.
- Outbreak of conflict in Greater Bahr el Ghazal. SPLA defectors from Wau in Western Bahr el
Ghazal, now operating as separate armed units, have prompted abuses by
loyal SPLA on local non-Dinka believed to support these units. The latest
high-profile defector, 6th Division commander General Dau Aturjong
(Dinka), is recruiting in and around Northern Bahr el Ghazal to broaden
the armed opposition and open new war fronts.
- Challenges to governing coalition unity. Frustration with Juba's failure to win the war has led
Uganda to reassess its relationship with the Kiir government. In light of
this and other challenges, there are private conversations about the
transfer of power within the leadership, particularly among the
president’s home Bahr el Ghazal communities.
- Instability in Lakes state. Many communities want to sit out the war; some have a
deal with neighbouring southern Unity state Nuer. Many youth in Lakes have
taken to the bush to avoid forced recruitment; some threaten to fight the
unpopular governor.
- Senior SPLA-IO defiance of the 9 May cessation of
hostilities.
Powerful field commanders, particularly General Peter Gadet Yak in Unity,
refuse to respect the Addis agreement. IGAD mediators have little engagement
with them or the allied Nuer youth "White Army". Disaffected
commanders point to the government/Ugandan offensive in Ayod and President
Kiir’s statement that he will not step down in a transitional government
as justification for the rainy season offensive.
Three
cessation of hostilities agreements have failed to halt the war, and time is of
the essence to expand the current process to address existing and future
challenges.
The government is borrowing heavily against oil futures to fund the war, its
troops are often unpaid, and thousands have deserted. Any transitional
government will inherit a bankrupt state. It remains unclear who is funding and
arming the opposition and how this outside support may be undermining mediation
efforts.
Pursuant
to UNMISS' mandate approved in May, a regional force is deploying under its
command, focused on protecting civilians, cessation of hostilities monitors in
key towns and oil-installation workers, but it will be overwhelmed if war
continues to expand. UNMISS, which is still not acting under its protection of
civilians mandate to address this, should work with the IGAD monitors to
prevent further escalation of violence but step back from efforts to be a
substitute for humanitarians and to negotiate their access. Both government and
SPLA-IO have asked to discuss these issues with unarmed, non-political
humanitarians rather than UNMISS, whose attempt to represent humanitarians has
already backfired and has limited access for humanitarians in some famine-prone
areas. UNMISS should assist humanitarians only on request and refocus its
efforts toward its core mandated tasks, such as protection of civilians.
Peace
talks have stalled; the 10 August deadline for a transitional government to be
in place is increasingly unrealistic. IGAD must expand its efforts for an
inclusive process in Addis by including community leaders and armed groups and
launch multiple dialogues in South Sudan. The cessation of hostilities
Monitoring and Verification (MVM) Teams, protected by UNMISS, should
investigate the reports of violations in Greater Bahr el Ghazal and Equatorias.
Many
recommendations Crisis Group made in its December 2013 Open Letter to the UN Secretary-General and
its April report, A Civil War by Any Other Name,
remain relevant to averting further escalation. In the face of faltering peace
talks, more aggressive South Sudanese demands for political reform and
fractures within the ruling coalition, the UN Security Council should hold an
emergency session to do the following:
- instruct
UNMISS to take decisive action, coordinated with IGAD, under its
protection of civilians mandate to prevent further cessation of
hostilities violations and violence against civilians, including by using
of its good offices;
- institute
an arms embargo for South Sudan to prevent further escalation and identify
the government's and opposition’s sources of weapons;
- task
regional troops to provide force protection so the MVM teams can launch
investigations in the Equatorias and Greater Bahr el Ghazal;
- clarify
that to prevent counter-productive conflation of UNMISS and humanitarians,
UNMISS is not to represent humanitarians and is only to assist them on
request and;
- establish
a Contact Group that includes IGAD, the AU, UN, Troika (U.S., UK, Norway),
EU, China and South Africa to facilitate coordination and discussion on
the way forward.
To
stop further intensification of the war, IGAD should take the following steps:
- task
the MVM teams with investigating reports of cessation of hostilities
violations in the Equatorias and Greater Bahr el Ghazal;
- increase
its political presence on the ground in South Sudan;
- open
four separate negotiation tracks, both in Addis and South Sudan, sequenced
and pursued so as to contribute to the broader national political dialogue
and focused on: 1) the SPLM (supported by South Africa's ANC party and
Ethiopia's EPRDF party); 2) a re-activated Political Parties Forum; 3)
armed groups; and 4) communal conflict;
- address
the questions surrounding inclusivity in the peace process by ensuring
selection of representatives is transparent, their numbers are increased,
and there are clear mechanisms for civil society or community leaders not
part of the official process to contribute to the dialogue in Addis and
South Sudan; and
- start
dialogue with all armed groups and militarised communities; failure to do
so is inadvertently making spoilers of those who could be constructively
engaged. Much of the dialogue and work with community representatives,
armed groups and militarised communities should take place in South Sudan,
not in Addis.
fecha |
Título |
09/07/2020| |
|
18/09/2019| |
|
30/11/2017| |
|
02/03/2017| |
|
13/01/2017| |
|
05/11/2016| |
|
04/10/2016| |
|
02/05/2016| |
|
30/03/2016| |
|
20/03/2016| |
|
19/03/2016| |
|
17/03/2016| |
|
19/02/2016| |
|
16/10/2015| |
|
16/10/2015| |
|
13/10/2015| |
|
04/10/2015| |
|
29/09/2015| |
|
29/09/2015| |
|
25/09/2015| |
|
25/09/2015| |
|
05/09/2015| |
|
05/09/2015| |
|
05/09/2015| |
|
05/09/2015| |
|
05/09/2015| |
|
01/08/2015| |
|
01/08/2015| |
|
27/07/2015| |
|
16/07/2015| |
|
25/06/2015| |
|
04/06/2015| |
|
11/05/2015| |
|
07/05/2015| |
|
28/04/2015| |
|
18/04/2015| |
|
17/04/2015| |
|
08/04/2015| |
|
05/04/2015| |
|
05/04/2015| |
|
05/04/2015| |
|
31/03/2015| |
|
31/03/2015| |
|
22/03/2015| |
|
16/03/2015| |
|
16/03/2015| |
|
16/03/2015| |
|
28/02/2015| |
|
10/02/2015| |
|
03/02/2015| |
|
30/01/2015| |
|
28/01/2015| |
|
20/01/2015| |
|
07/01/2015| |
|
23/12/2014| |
|
22/12/2014| |
|
20/12/2014| |
|
18/12/2014| |
|
16/12/2014| |
|
16/12/2014| |
|
10/12/2014| |
|
05/12/2014| |
|
02/12/2014| |
|
09/11/2014| |
|
03/11/2014| |
|
30/10/2014| |
|
30/10/2014| |
|
22/10/2014| |
|
22/10/2014| |
|
18/10/2014| |
|
13/10/2014| |
|
02/10/2014| |
|
01/10/2014| |
|
23/09/2014| |
|
11/09/2014| |
|
09/09/2014| |
|
08/09/2014| |
|
05/09/2014| |
|
21/08/2014| |
|
15/08/2014| |
|
05/08/2014| |
|
03/08/2014| |
|
25/07/2014| |
|
21/06/2014| |
|
21/06/2014| |
|
13/06/2014| |
|
22/05/2014| |
|
15/05/2014| |
|
13/05/2014| |
|
29/04/2014| |
|
22/04/2014| |
|
08/04/2014| |
|
08/04/2014| |
|
08/04/2014| |
|
08/04/2014| |
|
03/04/2014| |
|
17/02/2014| |
|
27/01/2014| |
|
23/01/2014| |
|
13/01/2014| |
|
05/01/2014| |
|
26/12/2013| |
|
06/11/2013| |
|
18/10/2013| |
|
17/10/2013| |
|
08/10/2013| |
|
05/10/2013| |
|
01/10/2013| |
|
22/09/2013| |
|
06/09/2013| |
|
03/09/2013| |
|
02/09/2013| |
|
09/08/2013| |
|
09/08/2013| |
|
31/07/2013| |
|
31/07/2013| |
|
28/07/2013| |
|
27/06/2013| |
|
26/06/2013| |
|
22/06/2013| |
|
19/06/2013| |
|
14/06/2013| |
|
05/06/2013| |
|
29/05/2013| |
|
29/05/2013| |
|
21/05/2013| |
|
16/05/2013| |
|
14/05/2013| |
|
13/05/2013| |
|
08/05/2013| |
|
07/05/2013| |
|
06/05/2013| |
|
02/05/2013| |
|
30/04/2013| |
|
27/04/2013| |
|
17/04/2013| |
|
12/04/2013| |
|
11/04/2013| |
|
08/04/2013| |
|
04/04/2013| |
|
02/04/2013| |
|
01/04/2013| |
|
19/03/2013| |
|
13/03/2013| |
|
07/03/2013| |
|
04/03/2013| |
|
04/03/2013| |
|
01/03/2013| |
|
26/02/2013| |
|
20/02/2013| |
|
19/02/2013| |
|
19/02/2013| |
|
18/02/2013| |
|
15/02/2013| |
|
06/02/2013| |
|
04/02/2013| |
|
03/02/2013| |
|
22/01/2013| |
|
18/01/2013| |
|
15/01/2013| |
|
02/01/2013| |
|
02/01/2013| |
|
18/12/2012| |
|
12/12/2012| |
|
05/12/2012| |
|
03/12/2012| |
|
28/11/2012| |
|
28/11/2012| |
|
26/11/2012| |
|
24/11/2012| |
|
22/11/2012| |
|
21/11/2012| |
|
21/11/2012| |
|
12/11/2012| |
|
01/11/2012| |
|
25/10/2012| |
|
19/10/2012| |
|
19/10/2012| |
|
10/09/2012| |
|
06/09/2012| |
|
27/08/2012| |
|
22/08/2012| |
|
22/08/2012| |
|
17/08/2012| |
|
16/08/2012| |
|
14/08/2012| |
|
09/08/2012| |
|
07/08/2012| |
|
03/08/2012| |
|
01/08/2012| |
|
01/08/2012| |
|
01/08/2012| |
|
01/08/2012| |
|
28/07/2012| |
|
28/07/2012| |
|
28/07/2012| |
|
28/07/2012| |
|
27/07/2012| |
|
27/07/2012| |
|
27/07/2012| |
|
27/07/2012| |
|
24/07/2012| |
|
24/07/2012| |
|
24/07/2012| |
|
18/07/2012| |
|
16/07/2012| |
|
13/07/2012| |
|
05/07/2012| |
|
05/07/2012| |
|
05/07/2012| |
|
05/07/2012| |
|
28/06/2012| |
|
26/06/2012| |
|
25/06/2012| |
|
12/06/2012| |
|
12/06/2012| |
|
11/06/2012| |
|
07/06/2012| |
|
19/05/2012| |
|
19/05/2012| |
|
16/05/2012| |
|
10/05/2012| |
|
07/05/2012| |
|
04/05/2012| |
|
02/05/2012| |
|
27/04/2012| |
|
24/04/2012| |
|
23/04/2012| |
|
16/04/2012| |
|
11/04/2012| |
|
06/04/2012| |
|
05/04/2012| |
|
02/04/2012| |
|
01/04/2012| |
|
30/03/2012| |
|
27/03/2012| |
|
21/03/2012| |
|
21/03/2012| |
|
17/03/2012| |
|
17/03/2012| |
|
15/03/2012| |
|
15/03/2012| |
|
06/03/2012| |
|
06/03/2012| |
|
04/03/2012| |
|
04/03/2012| |
|
29/02/2012| |
|
29/02/2012| |
|
29/02/2012| |
|
24/02/2012| |
|
24/02/2012| |
|
24/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
23/02/2012| |
|
17/02/2012| |
|
16/02/2012| |
|
03/11/2011| |
|
02/11/2011| |
|
12/10/2011| |
|
11/10/2011| |
|
04/10/2011| |
|
27/09/2011| |
|
27/09/2011| |
|
24/09/2011| |
|
23/09/2011| |
|
15/09/2011| |
|
14/09/2011| |
|
12/09/2011| |
|
09/09/2011| |
|
09/09/2011| |
|
06/09/2011| |
|
06/09/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
23/08/2011| |
|
22/08/2011| |
|
22/08/2011| |
|
14/08/2011| |
|
08/08/2011| |
|
05/08/2011| |
|
05/08/2011| |
|
04/08/2011| |
|
04/08/2011| |
|
29/07/2011| |
|
27/07/2011| |
|
23/07/2011| |
|
22/07/2011| |
|
17/07/2011| |
|
17/07/2011| |
|
07/07/2011| |
|
07/07/2011| |
|
03/07/2011| |
|
03/07/2011| |
|
28/06/2011| |
|
28/06/2011| |
|
16/06/2011| |
|
16/06/2011| |
|
16/06/2011| |
|
16/06/2011| |
|
07/06/2011| |
|
07/06/2011| |
|
31/05/2011| |
|
31/05/2011| |
|
28/05/2011| |
|
28/05/2011| |
|
25/05/2011| |
|
24/05/2011| |
|
24/05/2011| |
|
07/05/2011| |
|
07/05/2011| |
|
06/05/2011| |
|
06/05/2011| |
|
05/05/2011| |
|
05/05/2011| |
|
03/05/2011| |
|
03/05/2011| |
|
02/05/2011| |
|
02/05/2011| |
|
01/05/2011| |
|
01/05/2011| |
|
01/05/2011| |
|
01/05/2011| |
|
22/04/2011| |
|
22/04/2011| |
|
18/04/2011| |
|
18/04/2011| |
|
10/04/2011| |
|
07/04/2011| |
|
07/04/2011| |
|
25/03/2011| |
|
25/03/2011| |
|
25/03/2011| |
|
17/03/2011| |
|
11/03/2011| |
|
22/02/2011| |
|
22/02/2011| |
|
15/02/2011| |
|
15/02/2011| |
|
08/02/2011| |
|
04/02/2011| |
|
04/02/2011| |
|
28/01/2011| |
|
19/01/2011| |
|
13/01/2011| |
|
01/01/2011| |
|
31/12/2010| |
|
23/12/2010| |
|
05/12/2010| |
|
02/12/2010| |
|
28/11/2010| |
|
27/11/2010| |
|
26/11/2010| |
|
22/11/2010| |
|
22/11/2010| |
|
22/11/2010| |
|
18/11/2010| |
|
01/11/2010| |
|
26/08/2010| |
|
26/08/2010| |
|
24/08/2010| |
|
24/08/2010| |
|
06/08/2010| |
|
28/06/2010| |
|
18/06/2010| |
|
16/06/2010| |
|
11/06/2010| |
|
19/05/2010| |
|
02/05/2010| |
|
02/05/2010| |
|
25/04/2010| |
|
04/04/2010| |
|
11/03/2010| |
|
02/03/2010| |
|
18/02/2010| |
|
20/11/2009| |
|
20/11/2009| |
|
06/11/2009| |
|
01/11/2009| |
|
27/10/2009| |
|
22/10/2009| |
|
05/09/2009| |
|
31/08/2009| |
|
27/08/2009| |
|
15/08/2009| |
|
02/08/2009| |
|
02/08/2009| |
|
20/07/2009| |
|
20/07/2009| |
|
18/07/2009| |
|
18/07/2009| |
|
11/03/2009| |
|
11/03/2009| |
|
10/03/2009| |
|
10/03/2009| |
|
10/03/2009| |
|
10/03/2009| |
|
17/12/2008| |
|
14/12/2008| |
|
02/10/2008| |
|
02/10/2008| |
|
24/08/2008| |
|
24/08/2008| |
|
08/08/2008| |
|
08/08/2008| |
|
14/05/2008| |
|
02/04/2008| |
|
02/04/2008| |
|
12/01/2008| |
|
19/05/2007| |
|
19/05/2007| |
|
10/05/2007| |
|
10/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
30/04/2007| |
|
30/04/2007| |
|
02/04/2007| |
|
01/04/2007| |
|
29/03/2007| |
|
16/03/2007| |
|
16/03/2007| |
|
05/03/2007| |
|
05/03/2007| |
|
28/02/2007| |
|
26/02/2007| |
|
26/02/2007| |
|
26/01/2007| |
|
26/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
15/12/2006| |
|
15/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
28/11/2006| |
|
28/11/2006| |
|
24/11/2006| |
|
24/11/2006| |
|
11/11/2006| |
|
08/11/2006| |
|
01/11/2006| |
|
01/11/2006| |
|
30/10/2006| |
|
25/10/2006| |
|
20/10/2006| |
|
11/10/2006| |
|
04/10/2006| |
|
15/09/2006| |
|
13/09/2006| |
|
03/09/2006| |
|
17/08/2006| |
|
17/08/2006| |
|
09/08/2006| |
|
26/07/2006| |
|
13/06/2006| |
|
06/06/2006| |
|
01/06/2006| |
|
30/05/2006| |
|
15/05/2006| |
|
12/05/2006| |
|
12/05/2006| |
|
10/05/2006| |
|
02/05/2006| |
|
25/04/2006| |
|
21/04/2006| |
|
21/04/2006| |
|
10/04/2006| |
|
23/03/2006| |
|
20/03/2006| |
|
17/03/2006| |
|
15/03/2006| |
|
15/03/2006| |
|
15/03/2006| |
|
15/03/2006| |
|
27/02/2006| |
|
23/02/2006| |
|
17/02/2006| |
|
15/02/2006| |
|
15/02/2006| |
|
04/02/2006| |
|
04/02/2006| |
|
18/07/2005| |
|
03/07/2005| |
|
30/06/2005| |
|
28/06/2005| |
|
28/06/2005| |
|
28/06/2005| |
|
19/04/2005| |
|
19/04/2005| |
|