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06/07/2006 | SLOVAKIA - An Unlikely Coalition

Stratfor Staff

After a few short days of savvy negotiating, a coalition made up of Slovakia's left-wing Smer-Socialist Democratic Party and two nationalist parties took over the government July 4. Though left-wing Europeans are aghast at such ideological blasphemy, Slovakia may well have its most stable government yet.

 

Robert Fico became Slovakia's newest prime minister July 4, only two weeks after the June 17 general elections.

The new government's formation was surprising not only because of its speed, but also because of the identities of the coalition partners. Fico's party, the Smer-Socialist Democratic Party (Smer-SD), only garnered 50 of the 150 parliament seats, and needed to enter into coalition with two other parties to secure a parliamentary majority. Fico chose to bring in two of Slovakia's nationalist parties: the aptly-named Slovak National Party and the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia, the party of former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar.

Fico has ideological and personality differences with outgoing Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda and his center-right Slovak Democratic and Christian Union, and Smer-SD campaigned explicitly on rolling back many of Dzurinda's reforms, so few expected a tie-up between the two. But Meciar is Central Europe's bugaboo. When he was in power in the 1990s, Meciar was renowned for his abuse of power and enthusiastic support for pretty much anything that did not involve NATO or the European Union. Since his ouster, the bulk of the Slovak political spectrum has been united on one item: Keep Meciar out of power. Jan Slota of the Slovak National Party is seen along the same lines as Meciar, primarily for his racist outbursts.

Ironically, such sentiments have led both men's parties to government.

Stratfor expected the Hungarian Coalition Party and the Christian Democrats to join Smer-SD in the new government, as both parties had the primary benefit of not being associated with either Meciar or Dzurinda. As it turns out, however, the parties put a bit too much stock in that sentiment, figuring that Smer-SD would not dare form a government with the likes of Meciar and Slota. Thus, they demanded key Cabinet positions from Smer-SD during coalition-formation negotiations.

But in Fico's mind, the moderates were asking for more than just Cabinet slots -- they wanted to share power, while Meciar and Slota were so desperate to get into the government that they would accept any deal. All told, Smer-SD only had to sacrifice five of the 16 Cabinet slots, of which only one -- the Justice Ministry -- holds any true power. And Fico was able to dictate the government's entire economic policy and assure that neither Meciar nor Slota hold any spots in the Cabinet.

Left-wing Europeans, particularly in the European Parliament, are aghast at Smer-SD's decision, and have (unsuccessfully) asked Fico to reconsider. Surprisingly, however, this may be the strongest coalition government Slovakia has ever known. It is not led by a strongman or by people united by desperation. For the first time since the country's formation in 1993, Bratislava has a government led by a man with a stable coalition and a plan to boot. Slovakia seems to be over its national-consciousness teething pains, but that does not mean the rest of Europe has to like what is emerging.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

 



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