A little over a year ago, Pakistan entered an unprecedented second phase of democratic transition, with one elected government handing power to another by peaceful, constitutional means.
This fragile transition will be gravely
threatened unless a fast-escalating political crisis is urgently defused. The
protests rocking Islamabad threaten to upend the constitutional order, set back
rule of law and open the possibility of a soft coup, with the military ruling
through the backdoor. Renewed political instability at the centre would imperil
any progress that has been made in addressing grievous economic, development
and security challenges. The government’s moves, supported by the parliamentary
opposition, to accommodate some of the protestors’ demands – particularly as
regards electoral reform – are welcome. It is worrying, however, that protest
leaders appear adamant in rejecting such outreach. Crisis Group calls on the
political and military leadership to continue adherence to the constitution and
enforcement of the rule of law, while permitting the right to peaceful
protest.
Protesting
with several thousand supporters in front of the national parliament in
Islamabad, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) Imran Khan and the Pakistan Awami
Tehreek’s (PAT) cleric-cum-politician leader Tahirul Qadri are demanding Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif’s resignation. Beyond that their demands diverge. Qadri
has called for resignation of the government, dissolution of all legislatures
and formation of a national government to enact sweeping constitutional reform
that would replace parliamentary democracy with a neo-theocratic order. Khan,
who has prime ministerial ambitions, has claimed that massive rigging by the
ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Election Commission of
Pakistan (ECP), then Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, segments of the media and
many other institutions and individuals deprived him of victory in the May 2013
national and provincial elections. He wants those responsible for rigging tried
for treason, Sharif’s resignation, dissolution of the national parliament,
formation of a neutral interim government and new elections. While threatening
the PTI’s resignation from the national parliament and the Sindh and Punjab
provincial legislatures in which he has very limited representation, he has yet
to decide a course of action in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (KPK) where his is
the governing party.
The
government cannot absolve itself of all responsibility for the impasse,
including confrontation between the police and Qadri’s followers in Punjab’s
capital, Lahore, that resulted in the deaths of several PAT supporters in June
and foot-dragging on Khan’s initial demands for a limited electoral audit. In
the face of the Islamabad protests, however, it has thus far exercised
restraint, concerned that any attempt to use force could further inflame
sentiment, exacerbate the crisis and give spoilers opportunity to disrupt the
democratic process. Further, it has accepted Khan’s original demand to recount
votes in some disputed constituencies. It has also accepted his demand for a
judicial probe into rigging, having requested the Supreme Court to set up a
commission to investigate conduct of the May elections; and has responded
positively to Khan’s critique of the ECP and the electoral process by
constituting a parliamentary committee, including PTI legislators, to develop
proposals for meaningful electoral reform. However, Khan has rejected these
concessions and moved the goal posts, rejecting the elections entirely and
calling for new polls.
All
the major parties in the national parliament, including the Pakistan Peoples
Party (PPP), which leads the opposition and was in power until losing to PML-N
in 2013, have strongly opposed any steps to derail democracy. They urge Qadri
and Khan to resolve their differences with the government peacefully and
vociferously reject demands for the dissolution of national and provincial
legislatures. Elected representatives from Sindh and Balochistan consider the
crisis a tussle for power between Sharif, Khan and Qadri – all from Punjab, the
most populous province – and a threat to the budding democratic institutions.
Justices of the higher courts, including the Supreme Court of Pakistan, have
called on the government and protestors to refrain from anything that would
undermine constitutionalism and rule of law. Pro-democracy activists and civil
society organisations, including bar councils and associations and journalist
unions, also vow to protect democratic institutions and governance.
Khan
and Qadri appear bent on upping the ante. They have reneged on commitments to
the government to restrict their activities to areas allocated for their
respective demonstrations outside the “Red Zone” that includes the legislature
and Supreme Court, the prime minister’s official residence and secretariat and
many embassies. To avoid violence, the government has allowed them to enter
this sensitive area, but the crisis would escalate if Khan follows through on
calls to his followers to seize the prime minister’s residence unless Nawaz
Sharif immediately resigns. Despite a past record of his followers resorting to
violence, including against law enforcement officials, Qadri insists his
protest will remain peaceful. He has yet to moderate demands for an end to the
entire political order.
Khan’s
and Qadri’s refusals to moderate their demands and the increased potential for
violence have brought the military in more directly. Even before the crisis
escalated, the government had given it the responsibility, under article 245 of
the constitution, to secure the capital. It is now in charge of protecting all
important Red Zone buildings, including parliament. Prime Minister Sharif, his
brother and Punjab Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar
Ali Khan have met with army chief General Raheel Sharif, apparently to seek
army support or at least neutrality. Nisar has strongly rejected suspicions in
some political quarters of a high-command role in fuelling the crisis, given
its displeasure with the government’s decision to try former army chief and
President Pervez Musharraf for treason and Khan’s and Qadri’s own ties with the
defence establishment.
That
said, with several platoons of troops and paramilitary forces now facing off
against demonstrators in the Red Zone, the dangers of military intervention
have multiplied. If Khan’s threat to storm the prime minister’s residence or
Qadri’s to cordon the National Assembly are realised, there could be bloody
confrontation or, as in past political crises, an indirect military
intervention. In the high command’s first public response, the head of
Inter-Services Public Relations, Major General Asim Bajwa, called on all
“stakeholders” to demonstrate “patience, wisdom and sagacity” and “resolve the
prevailing impasse through meaningful dialogue in the larger national interests
and public interests”. There is in this an implied risk that past military
interventions – including the removal of three elected governments in the 1990s
– cannot be ignored: that the military might decisively enter the fray if it
judges the politicians to be insufficiently wise.
If
democracy is to survive and stability preserved, it is essential that political
and military leaders:
Exercise restraint:
While
Qadri has few stakes in the system and little interest in sustaining it, Khan’s
party, which had its best electoral results in 2013, must understand that
disruption of the democratic order could deprive it of the chance of forming
governments by legitimate means. It should in particular cease calls to attack
public property, including the prime minister’s residence or parliament. The
danger that infiltrators, including terrorists and violent extremists, could
exploit the situation to attack elected representatives, security personnel,
diplomats or even demonstrators to provoke violence, cannot be ruled out. The
government should allow the demonstrations to continue – peaceful protest is a
constitutional right – while ensuring that citizens, public property and
embassies are protected.
Respect constitutionalism and protect democratic institutions:
The
government, parliamentary opposition, demonstrators and the security apparatus
must all respect the constitution and rule of law. Otherwise it would be next
to impossible to resolve Pakistan’s security challenges, including militancy
and terrorism that have claimed thousands of lives. The threat or use of force
to advance political goals empowers spoilers and cuts the country’s moderate
moorings. The abrogation of constitutions and closure of democratic avenues to
address grievances and demands by successive dictatorial regimes fuelled
political polarisation. The various components of the federation must not be
led to believe that their interests and priorities could again be made hostage
to extra-constitutional power deals.
Hold meaningful negotiations:
The
government must continue its efforts to seek a negotiated settlement of the
crisis with Khan and Qadri, but should not allow the military to dictate the
outcome of the bargaining process or concede to any demand that undermines
constitutionalism, democratic governance and the rule of law. If Khan and Qadri
are to convince the public their actions are in the national interest, they
must respond constructively to such overtures.
fecha |
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30/11/2017| |
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16/10/2015| |
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29/09/2015| |
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30/01/2015| |
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20/01/2015| |
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23/12/2014| |
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10/12/2014| |
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09/11/2014| |
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13/01/2014| |
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26/12/2013| |
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06/11/2013| |
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08/10/2013| |
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09/08/2013| |
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31/07/2013| |
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28/07/2013| |
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27/06/2013| |
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26/06/2013| |
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19/06/2013| |
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14/06/2013| |
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19/03/2013| |
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13/03/2013| |
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07/03/2013| |
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18/12/2012| |
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28/07/2012| |
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05/07/2012| |
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12/06/2012| |
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12/06/2012| |
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11/06/2012| |
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07/06/2012| |
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19/05/2012| |
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16/05/2012| |
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10/05/2012| |
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24/04/2012| |
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16/04/2012| |
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11/04/2012| |
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06/04/2012| |
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05/04/2012| |
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30/03/2012| |
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21/03/2012| |
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21/03/2012| |
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17/03/2012| |
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17/03/2012| |
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15/03/2012| |
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15/03/2012| |
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06/03/2012| |
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04/03/2012| |
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29/02/2012| |
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24/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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17/02/2012| |
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16/02/2012| |
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03/11/2011| |
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02/11/2011| |
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12/10/2011| |
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11/10/2011| |
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04/10/2011| |
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27/09/2011| |
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27/09/2011| |
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24/09/2011| |
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23/09/2011| |
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15/09/2011| |
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14/09/2011| |
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12/09/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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22/08/2011| |
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22/08/2011| |
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14/08/2011| |
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08/08/2011| |
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05/08/2011| |
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04/08/2011| |
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04/08/2011| |
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29/07/2011| |
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27/07/2011| |
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23/07/2011| |
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22/07/2011| |
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17/07/2011| |
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17/07/2011| |
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07/07/2011| |
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07/07/2011| |
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03/07/2011| |
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03/07/2011| |
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28/06/2011| |
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28/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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07/06/2011| |
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07/06/2011| |
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31/05/2011| |
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31/05/2011| |
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28/05/2011| |
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28/05/2011| |
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25/05/2011| |
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24/05/2011| |
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24/05/2011| |
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07/05/2011| |
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07/05/2011| |
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06/05/2011| |
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06/05/2011| |
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05/05/2011| |
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05/05/2011| |
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03/05/2011| |
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03/05/2011| |
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02/05/2011| |
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02/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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22/04/2011| |
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22/04/2011| |
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18/04/2011| |
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18/04/2011| |
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10/04/2011| |
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07/04/2011| |
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07/04/2011| |
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25/03/2011| |
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25/03/2011| |
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25/03/2011| |
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17/03/2011| |
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11/03/2011| |
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22/02/2011| |
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22/02/2011| |
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15/02/2011| |
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15/02/2011| |
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08/02/2011| |
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04/02/2011| |
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04/02/2011| |
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28/01/2011| |
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19/01/2011| |
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13/01/2011| |
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01/01/2011| |
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31/12/2010| |
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23/12/2010| |
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05/12/2010| |
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02/12/2010| |
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28/11/2010| |
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27/11/2010| |
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26/11/2010| |
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22/11/2010| |
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22/11/2010| |
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22/11/2010| |
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18/11/2010| |
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01/11/2010| |
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26/08/2010| |
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26/08/2010| |
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24/08/2010| |
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06/08/2010| |
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28/06/2010| |
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18/06/2010| |
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16/06/2010| |
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11/06/2010| |
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19/05/2010| |
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02/05/2010| |
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02/05/2010| |
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25/04/2010| |
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04/04/2010| |
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11/03/2010| |
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02/03/2010| |
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18/02/2010| |
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20/11/2009| |
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20/11/2009| |
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06/11/2009| |
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01/11/2009| |
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27/10/2009| |
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22/10/2009| |
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05/09/2009| |
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31/08/2009| |
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27/08/2009| |
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15/08/2009| |
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02/08/2009| |
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02/08/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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18/07/2009| |
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18/07/2009| |
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11/03/2009| |
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11/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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17/12/2008| |
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14/12/2008| |
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02/10/2008| |
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02/10/2008| |
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24/08/2008| |
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24/08/2008| |
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08/08/2008| |
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08/08/2008| |
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14/05/2008| |
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02/04/2008| |
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02/04/2008| |
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12/01/2008| |
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19/05/2007| |
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19/05/2007| |
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10/05/2007| |
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10/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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29/03/2007| |
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26/01/2007| |
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26/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
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15/12/2006| |
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